[inquiry]

Just how often is 7NT bid on BBO? How often does it make? These types of questions are easy to ask, and answer using Bridgebrowser. I took a look at four months of tournament and team game play (june to end of Sept) using bridgebrowser. There were 7,323,307 hands played (this does not include total point events, robot races, etc). There were a total of 14,049 seven NT contracts, for 0.19 % of the contracts.

Now there is a population who like to "punish" their partners for a previous hand and jump to 7NT and when doubled, they redouble. With Bridgebrowser, it is possible to catch everyone of them, and issue BBO sanctions upto an including permanent bans. Out of these 7,323,307 contracts, there was a shocking 356 of these (earning an average -22.1 imp, and 0.28% MP. If we exclude these intentional bad bids, 7NT was bid on 0.18% of the hands. The average of this corrected bunch was -0.89 imps and 50.11%.



                ----MP----       ----IMPs----
                nv      vul      nv       vul
Down XX'd          1.15              -14.61
Down X’d           3.47              -12.69
Down undbld       10.49              -11.13 
Make           85.28    87.77     7.54    8.88
Make X’d       98.43    94.25    12.52   13.84
Make XX’d      99.78    99.33    15.37   16.88

I didn't bother seperating down into vul and not vul, since number of undertricks was so variable. BTW, there were also a fair number of 7NT's bid off an ace, if you eliminate those, the 7NT contracts did much better of course. Blackwood or Gerber might have saved some of those.

Here are some interesting stats. The declarers who made the most 7NT contracts(it is also easy to see who bid the most, or who declared the most, we went with made just because that is good thing) were:

hrbmk- - - - - 15
luckyloo- - - - 8
kkapo - - - - - 8
mike2tucke - -  7
marpol222 - - - 7
kudol - - - - - 7

I have pulled out dozens of interesting play hands from these and other auctions. Here is one. This hand was played 15 times, twice in 7NT, and in NT a total of 14 times (once in 6S). Both 7NT declarer's went down, and only 3 of the 15 total notrump declarer's took 13 tricks. Two of the three that made 13 tricks did so on less than sterling defense. Only one of the 14 declarer's found the correct play. I am surprized more didn't find the correct play in seven.

Matchpoints             Dlr: EAST
            S AKT83     Vul: N-S
            H K96       
            D 9             
            C AK98             
          
            S QJ            
            H AT5       
            D AKJ64     
            C 543       

West       North      East       South 
                         Pass       1D         
Pass       1S         Pass       2H         
Pass       3C         Dbl        3NT        
Pass       4NT        Pass       5H         
Pass       5NT        Pass       6D         
Pass       7NT        Pass       Pass       
Pass       

 1  West   ♣2,  ♣K,  ♣Q,  ♣3
 2  North  ♦9,  ♦5,  ♦J,  ♦2
 3  South   ♦K,  ♦3,  ♣8,  ♦Q

Plan your play.

[kgr]

inquiry, on Nov 11 2007, 01:56 AM, said:

Matchpoints             Dlr: EAST
            S AKT83     Vul: N-S
            H K96       
            D 9             
            C AK98             
          
            S QJ            
            H AT5       
            D AKJ64     
            C 543       

West       North      East       South 
                         Pass       1D         
Pass       1S         Pass       2H         
Pass       3C         Dbl        3NT        
Pass       4NT        Pass       5H         
Pass       5NT        Pass       6D         
Pass       7NT        Pass       Pass       
Pass       

 1  West   ♣2,  ♣K,  ♣Q,  ♣3
 2  North  ♦9,  ♦5,  ♦J,  ♦2
 3  South   ♦K,  ♦3,  ♣8,  ♦Q

Plan your play.

I would play East for ♣QJTx
Play ♦A discarding a ♣ in dummy.
♠QJ and ♣AK followed by all ♠'s ending with:
 
♠3
♥K96
 
♥A5
♦6
♣3
East will have to shorten to 2♥'s and a ♣ on the last ♠; after which you throw ♣3.
West has to keep a ♦ and also has to shorten to 2♥'s.

[inquiry]

This next one could be right out of the newspaper. This was from a team match, both teams played 7NT. Both declarers counted to 12 and then one finessed East, the other West for the diamond queen. One made and one went down. There is a logical (intermediate) way to play this hand, which would have worked. How should it be played? (should be posted in beginner/intemediate forum I guess).

Scoring: IMP

---

West North East South

Pass 1NT Pass 7NT
Pass Pass Pass

S9 H3 H2 H5

[rbforster]

inquiry, on Nov 10 2007, 09:44 PM, said:

There is a logical (intermediate) way to play this hand, which would have worked. How should it be played?

I'll try play on hearts hoping for 3-3. If they're 4-2, you can always hook the diamond into the short hand (safer for undertricks, but less likely to work), or hook into the long heart hand (down more if you're wrong, but more likely to work).

Not sure what your first trick was supposed to mean on that one, but I don't think it was a diamond.

[inquiry]

One more for tonight. This one is considerably more difficult, but many, many players here will have no trouble with it.

GRAND SLAM #3

Scoring: IMP

---

West North East South

 -     1♥    Pass  1♠
 Pass  2♥    Pass  4NT
 Pass  5♥    Pass  5NT
 Pass  6♦    Pass  7NT
 Pass  Pass  Pass  

CJ CA C4 C2
H3 H4 HK H2

ok gave you trick two so you know QJ of hearts is not doubleton. The club Jack lead is probably honest.

To RobF.. on the second hand, when you try hearts they prove to be 3-3. Your still up.

[Fluffy]

On the last I thikn it makes when LHO has 3 hearts , it is a double guard squeeze, but might need to guess later (took me more time to realise than I might had spent on the table ).

You must assume LHO has 3 hearts and at least 1 diamond honnor. Cash the top clubs before playing spades.

this is the ending position I think

---

[inquiry]

I want to talk about the first two hands, and then add a third that combines features of both of those. But first, a word about the bidding on the first hand. That was the bidding at one of the tables. I don't condone a reverse on the south hand, it is just what happened at the table.

In the first one, you have 5S, 2C, 2H, 3D for 12 tricks. This hand, at least initially, looks like a relatively straight forward double squeeze. The double of 3♣ marks EAST with five clubs or more the QUEEN-JACK, and dropping the club queen and the opening lead confirms it. If the ♦queen is an honest card, that will put west soley in charge of diamonds. And you have a "double" heart threat with an entry to either hand against both opponents. What could be easier?

But before you play to trick four, you realize that while cashing another diamond would confirm East shortage, but what will you throw away from dummy? Not another club, that is your threat against EAST. Not a spade, you want to win five of those. How about a heart?

Whoops. You see it now, right? A heart discard would mean the two red suit menances would be IN FRONT of WEST so does this mean the double squeeze would not work? The threat card in hearts against WEST has to be in the dummy. But what happens if the heart threat is indeed dummy's third heart? In that case, both the club and heart threats would be IN FRONT of EAST. But wait a minute. If East has five, or even four clubs, the club threat doesn't have to be the dummy's club nine, South's five works just as well.

Cash the third diamond, East and north both pitch a club. Cash spade QJ, club to ace, West shows out, and claim. The position will be something like this:

When you take the last spade in north, EAST has to keep the club jack, so he comes down to two only hearts (here I let it be both the Queen and Jack). Once he keeps the club jack, south throws the club 5 away. Next West has to keep the diamond TEN (else your diamond 6 is good), so he comes down to two hearts. I am generous, so I let him have both the Queen and JAck too. Now, Ace, King, and heart nine win the last three tricks.

---

The actual hand was...

When you take the last spade in north, EAST has to keep the club jack, so he comes down to two only hearts (here I let it be both the Queen and Jack). Once he keeps the club jack, south throws the club 5 away. Next West has to keep the diamond TEN (else your diamond 6 is good), so he comes down to two hearts. I am generous, so I let him have both the Queen and JAck too. Now, Ace, King, and heart nine win the last three tricks.

---

The second hand is a much simplier one. I will show the full hands belwo and try to explain the basic idea. On this hand, you have exactly 3 spade tricks and exactly 3 club tricks, no more no less. So you need 7 red tricks. A 3-3 heart split will get you 4 heart tricks, while if you find the diamond JACK you have 3 diamond tricks, and if diamonds split 3-2 (and you find the jack) you have 4 diamond tricks. So your total needs to be 3S + 3C + 4H + 3D, or 3S + 3C + 3H + 4D.

When you take the last spade in north, EAST has to keep the club jack, so he comes down to two only hearts (here I let it be both the Queen and Jack). Once he keeps the club jack, south throws the club 5 away. Next West has to keep the diamond TEN (else your diamond 6 is good), so he comes down to two hearts. I am generous, so I let him have both the Queen and JAck too. Now, Ace, King, and heart nine win the last three tricks.

---

This brings us now, to what should have been GRAND #3, which requires a little of the logic used for both hands 1 and 2. Let's call this one Grand #4.

Scoring: IMP

West North East South

- - - 1NT
Pass 4♣ Pass 4NT
Pass 5♣ Pass 5♥
Pass 7NT Pass Pass
Pass

C7 CQ C3 C9

How would you continue, and importantly, why?

---

[inquiry]

Fluffy is dead on right with his analysis, but it could be a little more complete. But he correctly nailed the key to the hand which is to CASH second club before touching spades. I will post my analysis I wrote prior to Fluffy's post.

NS has 7 spade even with a theoretical 5-0 split, 2H, 1D, 2C. That comes to 12 tricks. As I noted in the earlier post, a doubleton QJ would solve all the problems, but a heart to the KING proves that happy situation does not exist.

There is no obvious 13th tricks, but you have potential threat cards in three suits (H, D, C). From the club JACK opening lead, you can summize that club 9 is probably guarded by both opponents. Only one opponent can quard hearts, since the suit has to be split 3-2 or 4-1. Diamonds can be soley guarded by EAST or WEST if they hold both King and Queen, or they can be split between the opponents if the royal couple is split.

One easy option to consider is that the person holding 3 or more hearts also holds both KQ of diamonds. Then this is an automatic simple squeeze. The squeeze card can be last spade even the last top club. An alternative is if the diamond honors are split. They you have a chance for a more rare compound squeeze. That is, the person with 3 or more hearts, will also have a club guard (we suspect both have a club guard) and a diamond guard. So on the run of spades, he will have to give up one of his minors. When he does that, a double squeeze will be established. But, there is a problem with this concept of a compound squeeze, one obvious, one not so obvious.

The obvious problem first. Both the club and the heart threats are in north. So if EAST is the opponent with the three hearts, he can give up his diamond quard and you will have no threat in the upper hand. So for the compound squeeze to work, WEST has to the opponent with three hearts (however, for the simple red suit squeeze, it doesn't matter who has the heart and both diamond honors). But did you spot the less obvious problem with the potential compound squeeze? If you run the spades starting at trick three you will squeeze the dummy BEFORE the real pain comes to WEST. Your last four cards will be a heart (entry), two diamonds, and a club. But what does dummy keep? He has to keep 1D (re-entry), 2H (entry and threat), one club (winner). This means he has no club threat left, and EAST can just give up on protecting against clubs. Imagine something like this...

On the spade ten, west can discard his club ten, and if you throw a club from dummy, EAST can throw a club or a diamond, and you are done. Now imagine the same ending with one minor change. You cash the club king at trick 3 before starting spades. What a difference this makes!!

---

On the spade ten, west can discard his club ten, and if you throw a club from dummy, EAST can throw a club or a diamond, and you are done. Now imagine the same ending with one minor change. You cash the club king at trick 3 before starting spades. What a difference this makes!!

---

So the correct play is clearly a club to the king at trick three and then run the spades. The trick is to read who has what, so that you keep the simple red suit squeeze active against both EAST and WEST, and have the "double guard squeeze" (note added: this is the one that Fluffy correctly identified as an option as well). The line of play is correct for both red suit simple squeeze should you decide to go that way. But their discards will help you decide between playing for a simple squeeze, or for the double guard squeeze. You should be able to rationize that when WEST gives up his club guard, he can not have KQ of Diamonds and two hearts left (as it is a three card ending) and EAST with a club left at that point, can not have four red cards even before dummy discards. So the double guard squeeze is the only chance at this point and you will correctly throw the heart ten away, and use the heart ace to squeeze east in the minors.

[FONT=Courier]

On the spade ten, west can discard his club ten, and if you throw a club from dummy, EAST can throw a club or a diamond, and you are done. Now imagine the same ending with one minor change. You cash the club king at trick 3 before starting spades. What a difference this makes!!

---

Well done Fluffy!

As i said, i screened all the 7NT contracts looking for a lot of things, one of which was grands that could be made by normal bridge plays (some sophisticated like this one, some easy like Grand slam #2 hand earlier). I am going to use a lot of these to expand my squeeze blog, but I thought some of these might be interesting here. I can post more if it seems useful.

[Fluffy]

To be real Ben, I was writing about the 5 card ending with ♥A10-♦10-♣K9 when I realised that it didn't work, so I went back to laboratory. I was too lazy to write why ♣K had to be cashed.

At the table I would had failed (if the defence didn't mess it) .

I also had tried before cashing ♥A and keepeing ♣K wich didn't work as well. West must keep 2 diamonds and forget about clubs.

[fred]

Actually there is a compound squeeze whenever West has 3+ hearts, but you must not cash the King of hearts early (sorry if someone noted this already).

The easiest way to see this is to get rid of all the distracting spots:

---

After winning the King of clubs, cash 6 spades pitching 3 hearts and 2 diamonds from the dummy leaving:

---

West has 3 hearts left so he must have abandoned one of the minors by now.

If West has abandoned diamonds there are various ways you can finish and the King of hearts does not come into play. For example you could cash the top hearts ending in dummy ("wasting your King"), play a diamond to your Ace, and play the last spade for a double squeeze.

If West has abandoned clubs, play a club to the dummy, a heart to your King and then the last spade. West must pitch a diamond so you throw a heart from dummy and play a heart to the Ace. East is squeezed on that trick.

The King of hearts does come into play in that (RFL) double squeeze which is why cashing it at trick 2 kills the compound squeeze.

I am not saying that it is best to play this way on the actual hand (I haven't really thought about it yet) - just pointing out that there really is a compound squeeze in this one.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

PS Nice thread and hands Ben

[inquiry]

Thanks for the kind words in the PS Fred, and for correctly noting that a Compound squeeze would work if WEST held three hearts. Of course, we want to play the hand so that we can also make if a red suit simple squeeze exist on one or the other opponent. Your compound should handle that as well.

This post will show two hands. The first will illustrate a point all players above intermediate know well. So I will just spell it out, so that we can use this concept on subsequent hands, including the second one in this post and many more.

Scoring: IMP

West North East South

- Pass 1♥ Pass
2♦ Pass 2♠ Pass
3♦ Pass 3♥ Pass
4♣ X 6♦ Pass
7NT Pass Pass Pass

---

 

Opening lead was club king. You win the ACE, obviously. You have 1 club winner, 8 Diamond winners, 2H and 1S for 12 tricks. You need a 13th and have two possible finesses for it. One in spades, one in hearts. You also have a loser (threat) in clubs, spades, and hearts for some squeeze possibilites. How should you play it?

If nothing else jumps out at you, this hand falls into the category of combined chances. Since you need only one of the two finesses to work, but can't afford to lose the one you take, you should combine your chances. Either finesse is roughly 50% (odds might change as you play the cards). Take either one immediately, you make your slam about half the time. However, you can (and should) cash the winners in one of those two suits before risking the finesse in the other. That way if the missing honor drops, you make your grand slam without ever taking either finesse. So, which major suit should you cash your winners in BEFORE trying a finesse in the other? The odds of dropping a singleton king of spades when missing 8 spades is not very good at all, at something just less than 0.4%. However, you have an 18.6% chance of dropping a singleton or doubleton queen of hearts. So the play is easy: Cash heat AJ early on, and if the queen doesn't fall, rely on the spade finesse.

Needing just one more trick and with two possible finesses, this "combination play" will frequently help you find your way safely home.

Scoring: IMP

This was the full hand, and you can see that this time, the correct sequence of play would have been rewarded.

---

Now for the next hand, which in some ways, reminds me a little bit of the hand posted by gwnn entitled "high card 6NT." It comes down pretty early to a decision to take a spade finesse or play for something different. Here is the hand

Scoring: IMP

West North East South

- Pass 1♥ Pass
2♦ Pass 2♠ Pass
3♦ Pass 3♥ Pass
4♣ X 6♦ Pass
7NT Pass Pass Pass

---

Since I have given you a hint that clubs are split nicely, you now know we have 12 tricks (6C, 1D, 3H and 2S). Since hearts can not split 3-3 when missing 7 of them (although JT8 could be tripleton)is the best play just to lead out the spade jack and let it ride if not covered. Should we look to see if JT8 of hearts are tripleton first? What other chances are there? Who has the diamond king?

What is the correct line of play?

[kgr]

inquiry, on Nov 13 2007, 09:36 AM, said:

Scoring: IMP

West  North East  South

-    -    Pass  1♣
Pass  1♥    Pass  2NT
Pass  4NT  Pass  5♥
Pass  5NT  Pass  6♦
Pass  6NT  Pass  7NT
Pass  Pass  Pass 

Opening lead ♦7, for better or worse, you decide to win the ♦Ace in dummy. When ever you play a club both will follow. 

---

Since I have given you a hint that clubs are split nicely, you now know we have 12 tricks (6C, 1D, 3H and 2S). Since hearts can not split 3-3 when missing 7 of them (although JT8 could be tripleton)is the best play just to lead out the spade jack and let it ride if not covered. Should we look to see if JT8 of hearts are tripleton first? What other chances are there? Who has the diamond king?

What is the correct line of play?

I would cross to my hand with ♥A, play ♠J (you never know that LHO wants to cover) and play ♠A in dummy.
I end with:
-
KQx
-
-
versus
T
x
Q
-
I don't need the ♠ finesse because opps will be squeezed if LHO has ♠Q (I believe RHO has ♦K). This gives me the extra chance of RHO having ♠Q doubleton.

[inquiry]

kgr, on Nov 17 2007, 06:27 PM, said:

inquiry, on Nov 13 2007, 09:36 AM, said:

Scoring: IMP

West  North East  South

-     -     Pass  1♣
Pass  1♥    Pass  2NT
Pass  4NT   Pass  5♥
Pass  5NT   Pass  6♦
Pass  6NT   Pass  7NT
Pass  Pass  Pass 

Opening lead ♦7, for better or worse, you decide to win the ♦Ace in dummy. When ever you play a club both will follow. 

---

Since I have given you a hint that clubs are split nicely, you now know we have 12 tricks (6C, 1D, 3H and 2S). Since hearts can not split 3-3 when missing 7 of them (although JT8 could be tripleton)is the best play just to lead out the spade jack and let it ride if not covered. Should we look to see if JT8 of hearts are tripleton first? What other chances are there? Who has the diamond king?

What is the correct line of play?

I would cross to my hand with ♥A, play ♠J (you never know that LHO wants to cover) and play ♠A in dummy.
I end with:
-
KQx
-
-
versus
T
x
Q
-
I don't need the ♠ finesse because opps will be squeezed if LHO has ♠Q (I believe RHO has ♦K). This gives me the extra chance of RHO having ♠Q doubleton.

This is not a terrible line, and in fact is quite reasonable. All you need is the hand with 4♥ to have either the spade Q or the diamond King. The losing case on this set up is if the hearts were in the hand opposite the spade queen and diamond king.

You have already "placed" (rightly or wrongly) the diamond king with EAST. If the spade queen is onsides, you can, should you decide, finesse it. I was thinking the right line is to combine all the chances.

1) Cash spade ACE (maybe the queen is stiff offsides), no luck
2) Cash Heart AKQ (maybe the JT8 are tripleton), no luck but on the auctual hand, West shows up with 6 hearts to east singleton. If ♦K is with EAST, you now have a proven double squeeze, so no need to rely on the spade finesse. If east turned up with loads of hearts, plus his suspected diamond king, you could have fallen back on the simple spade finesse.

I guess, i am not certain which line is superiour, but i like the cash one spade, cash three heart line as "extra chances" even before going after the spade finessee. If what looks like a good chance for a squeeze play shows up, so much the better. When this hand was played, those in 7NT took the spade hook without running hearts and went down several.

[kgr]

inquiry, on Nov 22 2007, 01:07 AM, said:

I guess, i am not certain which line is superiour, but i like the cash one spade, cash three heart line as "extra chances" even before going after the spade finessee. If what looks like a good chance for a squeeze play shows up, so much the better. When this hand was played, those in 7NT took the spade hook without running hearts and went down several.

Yes, difficult to say which line is better.
to defend my line:
- I think ♠Qx is more likely then ♠Q or ♥JT8
- Most likely in your line opps will both follow a ♠ and 3 ♥'s. You will play West to have the 4-card for the double squeeze?
- What do you discard on the 3th ♥. That will have to be a ♠ and you don't have a ♠ finesse anymore in case West does not follow on 3th ♥?

[inquiry]

If east follows to the second AND third spade, I discard the ♦Q and fall back on the likely spade finesse. Once EAST shows out on either first, second or third heart, then the double squeeze is obviously superior to the finessee (as long as I am willing to continue to believe the diamond king is with EAST).

Your line works against singleton QUEEN, but you have lost chance for finessee and it only works if West has spade QUEEN and four plus hearts or EAST has four plus hearts and the diamond king. Of course anytime EAST has four plus hearts and the diamond king, the other lines will work if the spade queen is onside and you kept the hook as an option.

[kgr]

inquiry, on Nov 22 2007, 02:13 AM, said:

If east follows to the second AND third spade, I discard the ♦Q and fall back on the likely spade finesse. Once EAST shows out on either first, second or third heart, then the double squeeze is obviously superior to the finessee (as long as I am willing to continue to believe the diamond king is with EAST).

Your line works against singleton QUEEN, but you have lost chance for finessee and it only works if West has spade QUEEN and four plus hearts or EAST has four plus hearts and the diamond king. Of course anytime EAST has four plus hearts and the diamond king, the other lines will work if the spade queen is onside and you kept the hook as an option.

...it works against doubleton ♠Q as I cash ♠AK.
If East has ♦K then my line works if West has ♠Q because of the double squeeze.
If East has ♦K and ♠Q I can only win if he also has the ♥ length.
.....From the lead, I'm rather confident that East has the ♦K.
!!!Remark: I'm really confident that you are by far the better player and analyst. I've been very interested by your squeeze posts some year(s?) ago. I'm trying to improve my thinking, not trying to proove that I know better then you.