mikestar, on Feb 11 2004, 07:27 PM, said:
The_Hog, on Feb 11 2004, 11:50 PM, said:
I would bid 2D on this hand. As stated by other posters, 1N should have some values. Pass is totally out re of the vulnerability. As well as destroying partnership confidence, 1S X may make several overtricks.
I don't bid 2H, though that is my second choice, as partner may get excited by a Major suit bid.
Point well taken re partnership confidence but this is most dangerous when the anti-system action causes a loss. Let's look at this hand further with us vul and them not. If partner is strong, we won't have a game because I've got nothing and we can probably set them--in any case they won't make a lot of overtricks.
If partner is minimum, for example a 1-4-4-4 11 count. Yes they will make overtricks. 1
♠X+3 gets then 410 when they are probably cold for 4NT with there 29 HCP and all the points agaist them in one hand. And if they make four overtricks, how many tricks are we taking in 2
♦X or 2
♥X on our seven card fit? 2
♦X-3 is better for them than 1
♠X+6!
LOTT suggest 14 total trumps/total tricks but it might be 16 if partner is void in
♠ lets assume 15 total tricks.
They make in 1
♠X We make in
♦X
11 tricks -510 4 tricks -1100
10 -410 5 -800
9 -310 6 -500
8 -210 7 -200
7 -110 8 +130 or +90
6 +100 9 +330 or +110
5 +300 10 +130
I give two values for two of the entires for 2
♦ since they may well not double us in this case.
Notice the losing cases are when they make on the nose and are down one. If we assume 14 total tricks, pass is even more likely the winner.
First, your scoring table isn't quite right, for instance 1
♠X making one is not +110 for them (as if they made 2
♠). They an additional 50 points.
Second, I doubt they will make 6 overtricks when you hold 5
♠. It is of course possible, but if they can make a slam, you do ok playing in 2
♦X or 1
♠x.
The more likey situation is that they can make 2/3
♠ and you may or maynot be able to make 2 of something. But this is not the only consideration. Let's assume for a minute you are right about the distribution (1444 for partner). They have a 7 card spade fit you have a 7 card red suit fit. That is 14 tricks. Let's work from that premise. If they make 1
♠ you are down one in 2
♦. So a possible (reasonable) result is -200 IF they find the double of 2
♦ versus -160 (not 110) if you pass. Now, tweak the hand a bit, they can make 2
♠ and you are down two in 2
♦X... now the result is -260 versus -500. Ok, so bidding carries some signifacant risk. But what I think you overlook is the risk of not bidding when partner has the 1444 weak hand.
The risk here circles around the double pronged sword. If you bid over 1
♠ dbl, then dbls by the opponents are for takeout generally. In fact, WEST with a good hand is likely to show it with another bid over your 2
♦ as opposed to pass. However if you pass 1
♠x and you catch WEST with a good hand, he will redouble, and this turns all the math on its head, AND it sets up forcing passes and penalty doubles perhaps (depending upon their partnership agreements). In otherwords, a pass can make it easier for them to wack you at a low level than an immediate bid.
Ben