[EricK]

When playing MP, overtricks, especially on "normal" hands, are very important. But how should one determine how many overtricks to try for?

Here is a hand from "More Killing defence at Bridge" by Hugh Kelsey.

Scoring: IMP

South opens the bidding and NS have an unopposed auction to 3NT.

West leads ♥4

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In the book, this isn't a MP hand. The defence kicks off with a ♥ and declarer holds up until the 3rd round and then takes a losing ♠ finesse. The point of the hand is that East, who can place South with ♦Q and ♣AQ must now switch to the ♣8 to present declarer with a decision - risk the ♣ finesse or hop up with the Ace and hope the ♦ come in. Very nice.

But I am interested in how one should play this sort of hand at MP. You are in the normal contract and have got what looks like the normal lead. You have 6 tricks on top, but if everything is right you might make all 13 tricks (eg ♥A, 4 ♠ tricks 5 ♦s and a ♣/♥ squeeze on West for the last 3). On other layouts the maximum number of tricks might be 12, 11 10, 9 or fewer!

So what thought processes should one go through at MP when the contract you are in isn't laydown, but even so there might be overtricks galore up for grabs?

[awm]

At MP, in a normal contract, you generally want to play the percentages. The argument is something like this....

I'm always going to take the spade finesse. Even with five diamond tricks, I don't have enough to make my contract. So whenever I win the heart, next will be the spade finesse. So:

(1) Spade finesse is on. Winning the first heart trick helps me if the diamonds come in (I can take 11 tricks). If the diamonds don't break, I might be able to take ten tricks if hearts are 5-3 and the long diamond is with RHO and I ducked the first two hearts. This is really risk-free since if hearts are 4-4 I still make 9 tricks. However, if I won the first heart I'm pretty much stuck.

(2) Spade finesse off. Winning the first heart trick is awful if hearts are 5-3, doesn't really matter when hearts are 4-4 (always 9 tricks).

So basically winning the first heart only helps me when the spade hook is on and diamonds behave, which is about 1/4. Ducking two rounds of hearts is better any time hearts are 5-3 and either the spade hook is off or the diamonds don't behave. This is more than 1/4, so I should hold up.