[pclayton]

You reach 3N after RHO opened a weak 2♠:

Scoring: MP

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The opponents are not very reliable. LHO leads the ♠8 won by RHO who returns the ♠10. Do you win? If you duck, RHO continues with another and LHO follows (see what I mean?)

Plan the play. Remember its MPs.

[karlson]

While this may well not be the field contract, and making it should be a fine score, it looks like the only extra chance for 9 tricks is if the ♣AK are onside. Since I think that's less likely than 2-2 diamonds, I'll just win trick 2 and try to take 12 tricks.

[kenrexford]

OK. Not much here to analyze, but there is something.

I also will win the second spade. However, I need to play a card from dummy.

I do not want to pitch a heart. That would snip communications if the diamond Ace fells the stiff Queen.

I do not want to pitch a club, because that kills my remote chance of catching LHO with something like ♠xx ♥xxxx ♦Qxx ♣AKxx. If he has that, I'll eventually take five heart, one spade, two diamonds, and one club, for nine tricks. They will cash one spade, one diamond, and two clubs. Adds up for making. (I do not know when I win trick two that LHO has a third spade; RHO might have ♠AJ10xxx ♥xxx ♦x ♣xx and be timid.)

I do not want to ditch a diamond. If the diamonds come in, we lose trick one, win trick two, win the next six diamonds, and then win four hearts. We lose trick 13 if hearts split 5-1 unless (1) RHO strangely has five hearts and the AJ10-whatever in spades or (2) LHO has the fifth heart and both the Ace and King of clubs.

A small heart pitch seems worst. Thus, it seems that I must decide first whether to maximize chances of making this contract at all costs (ditch the diamond) or whether the contract and initial defense is obvious, or what impact the uncertainty as to contract and initial defense might have. Then, I must evaluate the relative frequency of the non-squeeze 5-1 heart split and the relative frequency of the club honor concentration plus the 2-7 spade split. Plus, I'm concerned about that club 10 and all the inferences to be gleaned therefrom, weighed against the extremely remote possibility that RHO is playing a really deep game falsecard to suggest that club honor, and not duck the first spade for that matter, with seven spades in his hand.

Wow. I suppose I just ditch the club, but these are the sorts of silly problems that sometimes drive partners of mine crazy sitting as dummy across from me for intolerable minutes.

[pclayton]

Maybe this is a better hand at IMPs.

Thats basically what I did, but the opponents were weak and I wanted to try to pick up some Q-T combos on my left so I plunked down the ♦J. I got a lightning duck and should have floated it but I popped and got the 10 on my right.

If I would have chose to come back to my hand with a heart, floated the D9, returned to the ♥J I would have wrapped 9 ricks, but its MPs and I wanted to take 12 tricks if diamonds broke, not to mention avoiding a disaster if the diamond lost to QT.

-100 was about a 60% board by the way.

[kenrexford]

The diamond Jack play at trick three is an idiot-exposing play. It seems more likely that you will catch a stiff Queen to the right than an idiot cover by leftie from Q75. And, you know that you are not flying him round, no matter how long the hitch.

Once you saw the 10, maybe the return to finesse makes sense. But, that snips your heart communications. Good cause for a falsecard from 10x by RHO, eh?