[gwnn]

Scoring: MP

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After a totally undisturbed relay auction (so defenders dont know anything of your hand) you get to 6NT on the South cards. LHO leads a heart, you play low. RHO wins the trick and returns a low heart.

1) What's the perfect timing to take advantage of every possibility?

2) Suppose you subbed on BBO for a novice who has played A, K of diamonds on tricks 3 and 4 and RHO dropped the Jack. What's your plan now?

[pclayton]

What extra chances? A stiff ♠Q? A triple squeeze with someone holding 4 spades, the ♥J and 4 clubs? Even with diamonds breaking, we have only 10 tricks.

You don't have the entries to finesse the spade and return to cash the spade. I think we are down to 3-3 clubs in addition to one of the chances above.

The triple seems like a more likely parlay than a stiff ♠Q, so I'll rattle off two more diamonds planning on pitching my heart unless it looks like RHO is under some extreme duress. Its possible if he's something like: 4=3=2=4.

[inquiry]

If clubs are 3-3, you have 12 tricks (5C, 4D, 1H, 2S). It is not required to test clubs right away of course. If clubs don't break, you are down to 10 tricks. With 10 tricks, you need some additional luck. Options include:

• hook east for spade queen and play for spades to be 3-3, but lack of re-entry to dummy prevents you from winning but 2 spades
  
• hook east for spade queen, and play for a squeeze of some sort, but lack of entry to dummy prevents any such squeeze to work
  
• play for a repeating triple squeeze

For the triple squeeze to work, the opponent with the long club could have the heart JACK and 4 spades I guess. That would give you a shot at a triple squeeze. And with long spades and long clubs, it is of course a repeating triple squeeze. But that is quite a lot to hope for. We already suspect WEST to hold heart JACK from low lead. He had 4D's, and we want him to have 4S and 4Clubs? Not possible as he already played two hearts, and needs a third. So the repeater will have to be on EAST, and the ending would look something like this.

On the diamond Queen EAST can throw a spade, but the next diamond gets him. If he throws a second spade, you have two extra spade tricks. If he throws a club, spade the ACE and club squeezes him in hearts and spades. If he throws a heart, spade to the Ace and heart squeezes him in the black suits

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So I guess at this point, I try clubs pitching a spade from dummy. If clubs are 3-3 home, if not, well, hopefully EAST is 4-3-2-4 with the heart jack.

[Fluffy]

We need clubs 3-3 and someting more, why not spade finese?, it might not be as goo, but it pays when spades 3-3 and ♠Q onside, then we have 5♠+1♥+3♦+3♣

So take the spade finese right away

[inquiry]

Fluffy, on Nov 12 2007, 05:21 PM, said:

We need clubs 3-3 and someting more, why not spade finese?, it might not be as goo, but it pays when spades 3-3 and ♠Q onside, then we have 5♠+1♥+3♦+3♣

So take the spade finese right away

how are you going to a) enter the dummy to take the spade finessee, and then re-enter to cash the spade king. Seems like you are one entry short to do that. Of course, you could ignore the fact that we are at trick 4 and take the spade hook immediately at trick 3.

[gwnn]

technically I did ask for a plan at trick 3 also.

[pclayton]

At T3 I take a spade hook.

[Free]

pclayton, on Nov 13 2007, 06:29 AM, said:

At T3 I take a spade hook.

same here

[benlessard]

1)

Taking the spades hook at trick 3 is awful.

If clubs are 3-3 ur chance of making the contrat is great. you have a Double squeeze if LHO hold the JH or the Diamonds. You of course make it if the D are nice.

If clubs are not 3-3 ur chances are slim. you need a 3 guard squeeze Clubs/Heart/spade over East. If you take the S finesse you have to be sure that you going that your going to make it more then 75%.





IF the S finesse work. and try the S you have this position.

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If RHO keep the S and The D there is no squeeze and you have to rely on clubs 3/3

If RHO keep the S and LHO keep the C/H there is no Squeeze (even if D break I might be wrong here)







I understand that the S finesse is 50% and club 3/3 35% However so when the S finesse work you have to cash in ur contract at least 75%.

so S 3/3 + club 3/3+ squeeze everytime RHO hold H+S and diamonds


Finally it seems that S finesse aint so bad after all. This is a very complex hand

[gnasher]

At trick 3:

If you play top clubs, top diamonds, SA, club winners, you need:
- Clubs 3-3 + diamonds coming in
- Clubs 3-3 + red suit guards divided
- Diamonds coming in (via a finesse) + East guarding S, H and C (2-trick squeeze)

(You can't have clubs 3-3 + singleton SQ, because you need SA to get back to hand after cashing the top diamonds.)

If you play spade finesse, SA, top diamonds, SK, you need:
- Spade finesse + spades 3-3
- Spade finesse + clubs 3-3
- Spade finesse + diamonds coming in + one player guarding S and C
- Spade finesse + diamonds coming in + East guarding H and C
- Spade finesse + diamonds not coming in + either player guarding S, H and C (2-trick squeeze)

Put me down for the spade finesse.

[gnasher]

If you are going to play for clubs 3-3, I think it's better to cash SA and the top diamonds first. If the diamonds come in, cash the fourth one throwing a heart (unless it's it's a winner).

Compared with cashing clubs first, you lose the 2-trick squeeze when East has ????-KJx-xx-????, but you gain clubs are 3-3 and SQ is singleton.

[gwnn]

I was south and RHO indeed had Qxxx KJx Jx Txxx. my first ever triple squeeze and albeit it was rather automatic, it still felt rather good.

So I take it there's no clear percentage difference between the two possible lines? Or is there? I'm still confused. I once heard Fred in a "think with Fred" session say something like "this (deep analysis) is not something you'd like to think about at the table... and quite frankly, neither would I!" (sorry Fred if I misquoted you).

[gnasher]

I think there are three lines - spade finesse / clubs then diamonds / SA then diamonds then clubs, and the finesse is significantly better than the other two.

The spade finesse is also what most of the responses on this thread suggest, so both instinct and analysis lead to the same conclusion.

On the actual hand, of course, anything works.