Ok time to solve this one. Please look at bridgeboy's line above... this works IF trumps are 3-2. Obviously if everyone was going down trumps are not 3-2 (and in fact, a 4-1 trump split has a fair probability, roughly 28%).
There seems to be four possible lines.
1) Ruff two clubs in dummy, one high, and play for 3-2 trumps.
2) Play as described by bridgeboy, ruffing two
♣ low in dummy ignoring the chances of a 5-2
♣ (this line does not need 3-2 trumps). Most declarer's chose to ruff one
♣ low and the next one high (as in line 1). Actually the a priori odds of a 5-2
♣ split is 2% more likely to occur than a 4-1
♠ split, but then again, if
♣ are 5-2, you will need to choose line 3 below anyway to have a shot. So this simple line of ruffing two
♣ low in dummy works...
3) Try to cash your side suit winners (1
♥+2
♦+2
♣) and win 7 trumps on the side (ruff three clubs in dummy... two high, and ruff a
♥ and
♦ in your hand and run the risk of a
♥ or
♦ overruff. Here you go ahead a surely try the
♦J at trick one, and when that doesn't work, you simply lead a
♥ towards the dummy's QUeen. Win this loses, go for the 12 tricks listed above by ruffing two red cards in your hand, and two
♣ in dummy high (or you can ruff one low and one high, in which one ruff in your hand is enough. The ruff one low after cashing
♣AK is really not different from line 1 above, as needs 4-3
♣ or 5-2 with EAST having two, but you can play to ruff two
♣ high.
4) Go for a line similiar to the popular line one, but keep open the possibility for a trump coup/endplay if you run into a 4-1 trump split. Unlike the other lines, this one requires that you preserve the
♦Jack in dummy to play a role in the potential trump coupe
Here is the complete hand....
I think I like the win 5 side suit tricks and try to score 7 trumps on cross ruff line. If they return a trump when they win the
♥A, you might revert to the set up a long
♣ line as you win a
♠ cheaply. It is easy to see how lines 2 & 3 will work well on the given hand. Look at line 4, which requires EAST have two
♥ to the ace to work. This line.. duck
♦ in dummy win king.
♣A,
♣ ruff,
♥K,
♣ ruff with A,
♠J,
♠K. When WEST shows out. Only chance now is to duck a
♥. East wins by force, and must return a
♦ (if
♠ claim). Now it doesn't matter which player has the
♦Queen... win in dummy and run red suit winners until EAST ruffs. IF he never ruffs, you end up at trick 12 in dummy with a
♠Q9 tenace over this
♠Tx.
Anyway a neat hand, worthy of thinking how to deal with either 4-1
♠ or 5-2
♣ as early as trick one.
Ben
1♣-1♥
2♠-3♠* GF
3NT-4♦
4♥-4NT
5♥-6♠
All pass
Opening lead ♦5 = 3/5th best