[mikeh]

Playing with a very skilled but imaginative player against a pair where RHO is a true expert and LHO reasonable but hasn't played much for several years, you pick up 10632 J52 AQJ 652

Nobody vulnerable, mps in a weak (sectional) stratified pairs.

RHO deals and the bidding proceeds:

[1♣] P [2♣] 2♦ [6♣] P [P] double all pass.

2♣ was a standard weak raise of clubs, nothing special.

Your lead.

[pclayton]

Whenever my opponents bid like this, they have a big 2-suiter, usually something like a 6-5. I think RHO is either wide open in one suit, or holds Ax in his fragment.

I'm not leading a diamond or a trump on this auction. It seems to me that its more likely RHO has hearts, not spades.

I lead a heart.

[han]

I'd lead a spade. It is almost impossible for partner to have a heart void, LHO would need to have 4 and declarer 6!

[pclayton]

Hannie, on Sep 23 2007, 07:52 PM, said:

I'd lead a spade. It is almost impossible for partner to have a heart void, LHO would need to have 4 and declarer 6!

Its pretty unlikely pard has a spade void too. That means LHO skipped 4 spades (at MPs).

The double doesn't automatically mean a void, it just means "lead something unusual".

[han]

Well, you were trying to hit declarer's side suit, I'm just saying that if partner wants a ruff, it is far more likely spades.

[Codo]

A Heart.

Pds double may be a lightner double with a chicane, but I doubt it.
I think that he just want to warn us from leading diamonds, because his diamonds are weak and he prefers another suit.

Declarer is surely not 6/5. Dummy has 5 clubs or his bidding makes no sense. So declarer has at most 5 clubs. He had opened a 5 card major with a 5 card club suit, or he has 5 Spades and 5 clubs. This makes much sense:
A 5305 hand. But even then I doubt that pd has a spade chicane. This will only be possible if dummy forgets a 4 card spade suit. Hardly.

Anyway, I think tha spade his "surely" declarers second suit (He has a 5305 or 4405) but that we don´t get ruffs. So I try a heart.
Pd will take the ace and king, Bridge is so easy.

[Fluffy]

I'd lead a spade, longer suit is asked, isn't it?, partner knows it, he doesn't know we are almost sure no void is avaible. He can have ♠AK ♥xxxx for example

[Codo]

Fluffy, on Sep 24 2007, 08:47 PM, said:

I'd lead a spade, longer suit is asked, isn't it?, partner knows it, he doesn't know we are almost sure no void is avaible. He can have ♠AK ♥xxxx for example

If Partner has ♠ AK ♥ xxxx ♦ Kxxxxx how exactly is declarer going to make the contract?
Can you show me hands where declarer and his pd bid their hand and the above layout for your partner is possible?

[matmat]

mikeh, on Sep 23 2007, 09:02 PM, said:

... very skilled but imaginative player ...

hmmm... does that mean players can't be both skilled and imaginative?


tiniest spade for me, please!

[han]

Codo, on Sep 24 2007, 06:57 AM, said:

If Partner has ♠ AK ♥ xxxx ♦ Kxxxxx how exactly is declarer going to make the contract?

Presumably the goal of the defense is to prevent declarer from making his contract?

If that's partner's holding then declarer could a red suit lead, pull trump and pitch dummies spades on his hearts.

I can see why matmat is worried if an imaginative player can't be skilled.

[mikeh]

Congrats to the spade leaders, and maybe the actual hand justifies my description of east

---

[cherdano]

Heh I was going to post that declarer will turn up with 6520 or 7420 and xx in a major. This would be consistent with partner doubling on AK somewhere.
Assuming this it does seem odds on to lead a spade, as declarer is more likely to have hearts than spades (and if he has spades maybe partner has the J and he doesn't get enough heart pitches on the spades).

[pclayton]

I slay myself sometimes. I write a beautiful analysis of why declarer has a club / heart 2 suiter and I lead...a heart.

My brain has been somewhere else lately.

[Codo]

I still don´t see why a spade is the percentage play.
For rho to have a Club/HEart two suiter, he needs to have 6 clubs and 5 Hearts.

In this case his pd must have raisde a possible 3 card suit with 3334 to two ♣?
Sorry this sounds too silly to me.

Next time LHO should bid 1 HEart. This bid is as sick as 2 Club but leads to the right slam: 6 Heart from North, making on any lead....


So please clarify this: Why is a spade lead better? (Besides the obvious fact that it worked this time?)

[Fluffy]

cherdano, on Sep 25 2007, 01:59 AM, said:

(and if he has spades maybe partner has the J and he doesn't get enough heart pitches on the spades).

Here is why Roland

[Codo]

Sorry, not convincing:

Declarer has 2506 when his pard bid 2 Club on a 3334 hand (or something similar)
He can have 5206 too, so the difference in this case is just the jack of spade.

So a spade wins, if north bid 2 Club on a balanced hand with 4 Clubs AND the second suit from declarer is Hearts.

A heart wins, if north bid 2 Club on any hand with 5 Clubs or when he has the balanced hand but the second second suit from declarer is spades. (I see that in this case there are hands where the possesion of the jack (or another honour) at pds hand will make it less likely to beat the contract.


Does still not look like a heart lead is the winner in theory.
Actually a spade still looks more like a 0% Chance, because no sane player bids 2 Club at mps with
♠Kxx
♥ xxx
♦ Kxx
♣ 9xxx

Or am I wrong with this statement?