mike777, on Aug 28 2007, 02:24 PM, said:
If I read awm correctly and I may not be, he seems to be saying opening this hand in first or second seat makes it more likely to be able to find your fit than passing this hand.
No... this is not the point.
The point is:
(1) If I pass a good hand, our side might never bid. It would be rather embarrassing to pass a hand out when we have a game.
(2) Even if I pass a good hand and the hand
doesn't pass out, I will often find it difficult to "catch up" later in the auction. Partner may open and then pass my response when we have game, or partner may underbid opposite my subsequent action because my hand is limited by failure to open (for example make only a single raise with limit raise values).
(3) There is usually some advantage to the "first strike" in an auction, in that your side often finds a fit first and it becomes more dangerous for opponents to come in (because the auction is higher, your side has already announced values, and your hands are better defined). There is some counterbalancing aspect because people overcall lighter than they open (at least at the one-level) so opening 1m might "let them in" on a hand they would otherwise pass.
(4) The main
risk of opening is that we will overbid. If partner will game force on many hands where game is actually awful, then opening will be a losing proposition. Similarly if partner will look for slam on a lot of hands where game is the limit, or will overcompete the hand, this will be bad. Of course, you can agree that your openings "can be trash" but then you run into other issues because the range is too wide (basically you will underbid hands where opener actually has something decent, because responder is trying to accomodate the garbage opening).
On the two hands given, my feeling is that these 4441s are very powerful opposite a fit. It's definitely possible to pass out a game hand if we don't open
and we have a major suit fit. However, there is some element of risk on the first (1444) hand because we might let the opponents spades into the auction more easily by opening than by passing (point 3). There is also some element of risk on both hands because these 4441s are kind of lousy opposite a misfit (only 11 hcp after all) and partner might overbid. Even with a minor suit fit, you can overbid the hand because 12 points opposite 11 with a 4-4 minor fit often doesn't make game (usually if the 4-4 fit is in a major and you have a singleton in one of the hands, 4M is decent). This is point 4, and again I think it's a lot worse for the first hand because your fit (if you have one) is more likely to be in a minor than a major, and also because the spots in the second hand are so good that they help compensate for the lack of high card points.
Help
) very thorough and thoughtful analysis. I am sure that not everyone will agree (that never happens with bridge players 
), but your outline does lay out many of the relevant factors and the pros/cons of them.