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The 100% line

#1 User is offline   Walddk 

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Posted 2007-August-23, 03:10

Scoring: IMP

S: 3NT
Lead: D4

Live on BBO half an hour ago. You decide to open an off-shape 2NT (fair enough), and after a Stayman enquiry by partner you arrived in the normal contract of 3NT.

Much to your surprise LHO leads a low diamond, RHO discards a club and you win in hand perforce.

At the table where I was watching declarer went 1 down. I am not going to reveal how. The interesting point is that there is a 100% line for 9 tricks after the lead, regardless of how the opponents' cards are distributed. Can you spot it?

If you are advanced or better, please use hidden text. This is posted in the B/I Forum for some reason.

Roland
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#2 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2007-August-23, 03:17

Spoiler


EDIT: Sorry, missed this is BIL
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#3 User is offline   DWM 

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Posted 2007-August-23, 06:06

6 top tricks (4 clubs, 1 diamond and 1 spade), plus the one on the lead makes 7 so I need 2 more.

I have 1 more possible trick in diamonds (2 if I can force west to lead a diamond)
1 trick in hearts and 1 in spades.

I only have 1 guaranteed entry to dummy.

My poor suit is hearts as I only have one guaranteed stopper before they can set up their tricks, however, for E-W to set up hearts I must get one trick from it. Therefore I need a way of making sure I have two tricks in spades.

Playing Ace then Queen of spades would open up the suit as if both are ducked I lose the heart ace then the king of spades knocks out my last spade and the suit is wide open. So I play the spade queen first, if it wins I play the heart queen, if it loses I have the stops in all suits.
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#4 User is offline   vuroth 

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Posted 2007-August-23, 08:47

After winning the low diamond, I have 7 tricks - 4♣, 2♦ and 1♠.

The danger is that I do not want them to lead ♥ through me twice. However I play, there's a chance that the second ♥ lead through me will lose control of the suit, and they'll run. If they do return a ♥ when I let them in, though, that gives me 1 sure ♥ trick, meaning I only need 1 more trick.

With all 5 ♦ on my left, ♦ are not the suit to attack.

I lead the Q♠. If it holds, I'll lead the Q♥, win any return, and make my 9. If LHO wins, I'm fine. (LHO can't return a diamond without giving me my 9 outright) IF RHO wins and returns a ♦, I'll cover, holding my ace for after I establish my ♥.

I'm guessing that declarer went down trying to establish ♦ (which are attractive), and lost control of ♥.

V
Still decidedly intermediate - don't take my guesses as authoritative.

"gwnn" said:

rule number 1 in efficient forum reading:
hanp does not always mean literally what he writes.
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#5 User is offline   Walddk 

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Posted 2007-August-23, 14:15

Excellent analysis by DWM and vuroth. ♠SQ at trick 2 ensures 9 tricks against any layout. Most of the time you will get away with ♠A followed by the queen, but it is not 100% safe.

Spades may be 6-2, and then the opponent with Kxxxxx and ♥A can set up his spade suit with ♥A as an entry. Either by ducking ♠Q (the suit is established now), or by winning his king to clear the suit.

At the table declarer tried to set up her 5th diamond and did not realise that the opponents were a tempo ahead if West switched to a heart and East had four of them. That was exactly what happened. East did switch to a heart from 10xx, found partner with AJ98, and the contract went 1 down seconds later.

Declarer had one final chance after the heart switch to the jack and her queen. She now needed ♠K onside. It was, but she was too focused on the diamonds and did not go for the legitimate chance at that point.

Roland
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#6 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2007-August-24, 02:12

I wonder if I'd fine the line if it wasn't a problem.
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