[cnszsun]

At IMP, i will play like this:
Win ♠A, duck a ♥ from both hand.

I don't know how to play at MP.

[awm]

It seems like there are three basic options:

(1) Win the spade ace and play three rounds of trump. If the suit breaks 3-3, then we have twelve tricks. Otherwise we are probably down.

(2) Win the spade ace and duck a heart. When we regain the lead, draw trumps etc. This gives a very good chance at ten tricks but virtually no chance for more.

(3) Duck the spade to the queen. If the queen wins, ruff a diamonda and play three rounds of trump, then run the clubs, virtually guaranteeing eleven tricks (unless hearts 5-1 or worse). If RHO wins the spade, plan to ruff a diamond and pull trumps, hoping that either trumps go 3-3 (giving us eleven tricks) or that we can discard the third diamond on a club before the long trump hand manages to ruff in (making ten tricks).

My evaluation is that you're in a pretty unusual contract (the heart moysian). Many people will be in 3NT or 5♣. Some may be in 6♣ or (it being a club game) a ♣ partial. With this in mind, the goal should be to make the contract, with a bit of consideration to trying for an overtrick if the spade king is onside or hearts are 3-3 (because of the 5♣+1 results). It seems like line (1) is therefore wrong, since going down will be a lousy result and there is not likely to be much difference between eleven and twelve tricks.

This leaves lines (2) and (3). Line (2) is only better when trumps are 4-2, clubs are 3-1 with the short clubs in the long trump hand, and the spade king is off, but in this case it is much better (making the contract for a top board when line 3 is failing and the various other contracts are all scoring less than 420). Line (3) is better when trumps are 3-3 or when the spade king is on (making 450) but you're not beating the 6♣ bidders in these cases anyway and line (2) would make 420 (beating the 3NT and club partial bidders, and tying the 5♣ bids).

So basically if you feel like a lot of people will be in 5♣, you should probably take line (3) to try and beat them (odds favor this working out). If you feel like a lot of people will be in 6♣, you should take line (2) (hoping 6♣ fails and maximizing your chance to make your contract). If you think a lot of people will stumble into 3NT or a club partial then you want to go with line (2) (making a game will be a really good score). This comes out to taking line (2) if the field is either really bad (typical club field stumbling around) or really strong (late in the LM pairs) whereas you're better off to take line (3) in a medium strength field (good club game).

[cherdano]

I am pretty sure RHO has ♠K. Almost every club player gets visibly upset when partner doesn't understand (or understands but doesn't obey) their signal.
I think I would go for Adam's line (3).

[lowerline]

Jlall, on Aug 8 2007, 05:52 PM, said:

So you're playing at the club (MP) obv and you pick up

QJTx KQxx T9x Q9

Partner 1Cs, you 1H, partner 3Cs, you resist the urge to 3N and bid 3S (job security etc). Partner bids 4H and you tank and pass. They lead the DA and dummy is

Ax Axx Q AKJTxxx

RHO plays the 8 and LHO tanks for 7 seconds and plays the 2nd lowest spade. You ask about their signals they say UDCA and you ask about their suit pref and they say standard and you ask about their signals with a stiff in dummy and they give you a disgusted look and say "we haven't talked about it" but obv its a club game so they're likely lying. opps are unknown but RHO seems to have a degree of confidence in his silence.

How do you play?

I think this is one of those occasions where you should play safe in matchpoints. Looking at the possible alternative contracts, 4♥ just made should be a good score. Play it as if it were imps... ;-)

Steven

[sathyab]

It appears as though the spade king is off. It's possible that it was on all along and hearts were 3-3, but I'm willing to pay off to that possibility and make only 11 tricks in that case. If the assumption about spade king being off is right, we should be in good shape. The 5c'ers can't make more than +620 (they'll face the same guess at T2 in 5c: spade King on or hearts 3-3, in fact easier spade shift then looking at dummy's spades) and we make +620 or +650 depending on how hearts behave; I'm assuming that if they're 4-2, I can get rid of my last Diamond loser on the long club. Even in a good field I doubt there'd too many pairs in 6c, so I'm not going to try to base my play on how they fare.

This hand also brings about some interesting points in bidding. A 4d bid by North should show the kind of hand he held, giving up on 3nt, but open to either 4h or 5c. If South's hearts were weaker and spades a lot stronger, you'd prefer to play in 5c or may be even a 4-3 spade fit if it existed as long as North could figure that too.

Does South always bid 3h over 3c holding a five-bagger, even if he suspected he could be the only one with a spade stopper ? If so, North has a tough rebid over 3h with no heart fit and no spade stopper.

[Halo]

If the field is in 5C there is no use playing RHO for king of spades and four hearts, because the club contracts will easily make twelve tricks.

So just draw trumps and go for bust?

However, LHO thought hard before leading a spade. Why? Was he considering other defences because he has four hearts?

Oh well, I'm just going to play for hearts 33.

[awm]

Another line some people seem to have referred to doesn't work so well. This is:

Win the ♠A, come to hand with a heart, ruff a diamond, play trump ace, come to hand with a club and play the top trumps. Then run clubs, pitching the remaining diamond loser.

The problem is, say trumps are 4-2 (quite likely). When you start running clubs, say they break 2-2 (obviously if they break 3-1 with the long trump in the short club hand you have a problem). On the third club, you discard the diamond loser as opponents ruff in. Now they play a diamond, tapping you. There is no remaining entry to dummy, and you are left in hand with QJT of spades and three good clubs on board. When opponents win the ♠K, they will cash diamonds.

[mikeh]

If they are club players who play udca, then they are fairly advanced club players and they know about suit preference, at least in general. Accordingly, I'd be about 85% sure that RHO holds the ♠K.

I am not going to worry about 6♣. In a typical club game, there will be at most one or two pairs, in a big field, who stumble into 6♣... my hand surely didn't look like a slam move, and I think I have down very well to avoid 3N... altho I have a sinking feeling that 3N would have made against most club opps, if not these.. LHO looks like a man with the ♦AK. Anyway, those in 3N are competing in a different event, so long as I make my contract. If they make 3N, they are making a lot more than 10 tricks... especially if they win the opening diamond lead...they have at least 12 and a good chance for 12.

My competitors are the 5♣ bidders, if I make, and the 3N (or 6♣) bidders if I fail.

Given that trump rate to break poorly, and that I don't need to take 12 tricks in order to do well within the field in which I am competing, but I do need to make at least 420, it seems clear to duck.

If they return a spade, win perforce, play A and a trump to the K. Then ruff a ♦, cross to my ♣Q, pull another trump and play on ♣s. If they ruff the 2nd round of clubs, I am down, but otherwise I am making in all relevant cases and making 11 tricks if trump are 3-3. Incidentally, I will watch their trump cards... if they are 3-3, a lot of players who know enough to play udca don't know enough to not show count in trump. However, their count in trump is irrelevant on this hand.. I'd be watching for future reference.

And this line has the added bonus of scoring very well if LHO has the ♠K.

I know that I haven't added much to Adam's analysis, which I read after I typed this

BTW, by some perverse twist of fate, my experience seems to be that trump always break 3-3 and I NEVER play for it in these situations: last week I reached 2 4-3 fits on somewhat analagous auctions, and got below average because the couple of other tables that stumbled into the contract played for 3-3, and the ones that bid silly other contracts got silly leads and made overtricks But I'm sure that virtue will be rewarded elsewhere in the universe.. perhaps here?

PS I don't know how to play mps either

[Halo]

Without necessarily defending my light hearted play for 33 hearts, if you play for 42 on this hand and it is four with RHO and he has King of spades, you get maybe 35% + (to about 45%) of the match points. Not quite virtue as its own reward, but not far off for a club event, as against a large qualifier.