[ArcLight]

IMPS, all white, decent pard, not a random pick up

you are West andhold:

♠ T x x x x
♥ x x x
♣ x x x
♦ x x

bidding goes:
E N W S
- 1♣ p 1♠
2NT* 3♠ p 4NT
p 5♦ p 6♠
p p ?

*2NT = 2 suited take out

Do you double because of the 5-0 trump split, knowing pard probably has a red suit winner?

Or just pass and likely set them 1 or 2.

[skjaeran]

Jlall, on Aug 7 2007, 02:22 PM, said:

Definitely don't double.

For starters they could easily make it, and are more likely to do so when you have doubled.

Secondly and more importantly they may run to 6N and make that when you could have set 6S which is a complete disaster.

Agree 100%.

[jikl]

The 2NT bid has probably already made it a little easier for them to make it and now you want to advertise 5-0? At least let them draw a round of trumps first to find out the bad news and maybe get a plus. If partner is almost a KNOWN 0553, the contract must be easier to make than a possible 3550 2551 1552, and this isn't even including the exotics with 65s in the reds etc.

Sean

[cherdano]

Btw, partner isn't marked with an ace here. Opener was limited by his 3♠ bid, so responder was free to skip the grand slam try despite having all keycards.
Also, my balanced shape is a big minus, the hand may play very well for them on a cross-ruff.

[keylime]

Silence is golden. I pass and lie in wait. Unless declarer is very competent or cautious, the 5-0 split will get them to do the "oh crap!" routine.

[jdonn]

I don't really even think they are down. Given the help from the 2NT bid I think it's about 70% that they make. And that only goes up if I double.

[jdonn]

I don't really even think they are down. Given the help from the 2NT bid I think it's at least 50% that they make. And that only goes up if I double.

[han]

Is that a total of 120% that they make, 50+70? Make up your mind please!

[pclayton]

Not only could they make it, but they could also convert 6♠ which we seem to be setting into 6N which could make.

I'm less concerned about tipping off the trump suit with Q9 in dummy and AKJ87x in declarer's hand. There's layers here, but I would think LHO's double doesn't mean that he has 10-5th of spades.

[skjaeran]

Hannie, on Aug 7 2007, 07:13 PM, said:

Is that a total of 120% that they make, 50+70? Make up your mind please!

I guess he means the average - at least 60% without the double....

[ArcLight]

They were down 2. Pard had a good hand.

>Silence is golden. I pass and lie in wait. Unless declarer is very competent or cautious, the 5-0 split will get them to do the "oh crap!" routine.

Yup - they were unhappy with the 5-0 split
At that point the dummy decided to leave.

[jdonn]

Hannie, on Aug 7 2007, 12:13 PM, said:

Is that a total of 120% that they make, 50+70? Make up your mind please!

My post editing skills are immaculate. Note to self - click on 'edit post', dont use the back button!

FWIW I had the auction different in my head when I gave 70% (I actually started at 75 hehe), then adjusted when I realized the real auction.

[han]

jdonn, on Aug 7 2007, 04:01 PM, said:

FWIW I had the auction different in my head when I gave 70% (I actually started at 75 hehe), then adjusted when I realized the real auction.

That actually makes sense, going from 75% to 70% to 50%. The longer you think about it, the more likely will they figure out the bad trump split ;-).

[skjaeran]

Hannie, on Aug 7 2007, 11:15 PM, said:

jdonn, on Aug 7 2007, 04:01 PM, said:

FWIW I had the auction different in my head when I gave 70% (I actually started at 75 hehe), then adjusted when I realized the real auction.

That actually makes sense, going from 75% to 70% to 50%. The longer you think about it, the more likely will they figure out the bad trump split ;-).

ROFL!