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Inferences

#1 User is offline   ralph23 

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Posted 2007-July-28, 15:16

♣♦♥♠

Scoring: IMP

South opens 1♥. You overcall 1♠ but North raises to 4♥, ending the auction.


You open with your Queen of ♠, won by the King in dummy.

Declarer calls for the ten of ♦ from dummy and plays the Queen from his hand. You win your Ace of ♦.

What do you lead at trick 3, and why? :(

Adv & Exp, pls hide your answers.
♣♦♥♠ Philosophy consists very largely of one philosopher arguing that other philosophers are all jackasses. He usually proves it, and I should add that he also usually proves that he is one himself. H.L. Mencken. ♣♦♥♠
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#2 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2007-July-28, 15:21

Spoiler

Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#3 User is offline   ralph23 

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Posted 2007-July-28, 15:27

NB - I am deliberately not telling you what your partner played on either the first or the second trick (except that he did follow suit both times). You do not need to know this information to answer this question.
♣♦♥♠ Philosophy consists very largely of one philosopher arguing that other philosophers are all jackasses. He usually proves it, and I should add that he also usually proves that he is one himself. H.L. Mencken. ♣♦♥♠
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#4 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2007-July-28, 15:28

Spoiler

The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#5 User is offline   vuroth 

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Posted 2007-July-28, 18:03

I don't know where our tricks are coming from. Well, actually, I do.

We're getting nothing in spades. Declarer has boss diamonds on the bard, and it looks like shortness in his hand. Partner has at most 1 trump.

Looks like we need 2 club tricks and partner to have the ace of trump to put this down.

The danger is that, on the wrong lead, declarer can cash the ace of spades in hand, throwing a club off the board. This limits him to 1 club loser, and he almost assuredly makes.

My answer was wrong for the play (I peeked), but that analysis should lead to the correct lead, I think, if you can think it through more clearly than I could.

V
Still decidedly intermediate - don't take my guesses as authoritative.

"gwnn" said:

rule number 1 in efficient forum reading:
hanp does not always mean literally what he writes.
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#6 User is offline   ralph23 

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Posted 2007-July-28, 19:27

vuroth, on Jul 28 2007, 07:03 PM, said:

Looks like we need 2 club tricks and partner to have the ace of trump to put this down.

Who has the Ace of trumps, and how to you know that ?

Note the title of the problem .....
♣♦♥♠ Philosophy consists very largely of one philosopher arguing that other philosophers are all jackasses. He usually proves it, and I should add that he also usually proves that he is one himself. H.L. Mencken. ♣♦♥♠
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#7 User is offline   Quantumcat 

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Posted 2007-July-29, 02:09

If declarer doesn't begin to draw trumps immediately that's always a bit suspicious.

She has a trump loser and her diamond loser, and two club losers (no spade losers!). Her trump loser must be the ace, cause if she had it there would be no harm in going for a bonus 1-1 break by cashing it. When she gets in she will discard her clubs on the diamonds then claim.

The problem with leading clubs outright is that her loser could include the king which gives her a bonus trick!

Since we know she mustn't have the ace, partner must have it and we want it to be him leading the clubs, so we lead a trump which partner wins, and, even if he hasn't been thinking at all he will do the right thing: he can't think I have a singleton diamond ace and want a ruff because he's looked at the opponent's card and seen they play 5 card majors. He can't lead trumps to cut ruffs because he doesn't have any more. A spade does nothing, and a club can either do nothing or be useful. So he has to lead a club.
I ♦ Transfers
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#8 User is offline   ralph23 

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Posted 2007-July-29, 07:37

Good answers all. The inference is, partner must have the Ace of trumps, since if declarer had it, would not he surely play a trump at trick 2 from dummy, so that he could play the known Ace of ♠ from his hand and discard a ♣ from dummy?

The four hands:



When partner gets the lead he will lead a club and declarer must lose 2 clubs. On any other lead from you at trick 3, declarer will make his contract.
♣♦♥♠ Philosophy consists very largely of one philosopher arguing that other philosophers are all jackasses. He usually proves it, and I should add that he also usually proves that he is one himself. H.L. Mencken. ♣♦♥♠
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