[DWM]

Scoring: IMP

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Bidding North dealer

P - (1♣) - X - (1♠)
P - (2♣) - X - (P)
2♦ - (3♣) - P - (P)
3♦ - (P) - P - (4♣)
P - (P) - 5♦ all passed

I have double checked the hands and bidding, yes they are correct. Both doubles are take out.

Play starts with East

♣A.8.3.2
♣K.♦2.♣4.6
South first
♥6.3.Q.2
North first
♦3.T.K.A
West first
♦4

Do you play the Queen or the 9?

EW are not playing any count signals.

I will ask about the bidding in another post.

[FrancesHinden]

It's not really a matter of who has the Jack of diamonds, it's a matter of whether you can make the contract or not.

If East has played the 10 from 10x then he has done something very silly and let the contract through when it should have gone off. Ignore that case.

The only two real possibilities are that East has J10 doubleton diamond (play the queen), or East has singleton 10 of diamonds. The latter is more likely, but here's the problem:

if you play a diamond to the 9, and it holds the trick, East discarding you have not yet made the contract. You have run out of trumps in the South hand, and West still has Jx left. There is no easy way to stop West making a second trump trick.

On that basis you might as well play for East to have J10 doubleton, even though this is less likely, because it's the only* way to make the contract.

[*this doesn't really belong ni the BI forum, but there are still some vague possibilities for making the contract if you play a diamond to the 9 and East discards. One way is if West is precisely 2=4=4=3 (impossible from the auction). Another is for West to have exactly QJx xxx Jxxx xxx: diamond to the 9, holding, spade to hand, second spade discarding a club, spade ruff establishing the 10, two more rounds of hearts, and North is down to - x Q7 -, South to 109 A - - and West to - - Jx x. Now South leads the 10 of spades and West is stuck.

You could have tested for this possibility by cashing the AK of spades before touching a red suit - if East plays an honour on the second round of the suit you can have a rethink when it comes back to the diamond position]

[Echognome]

West freely bid 1♠ after the takeout double, so playing him for less than 4 spades means you are playing for him to have psyched. It just goes back to the earlier part of your post where you might as well play for JT doubleton.

[FrancesHinden]

Echognome, on Jul 23 2007, 01:58 PM, said:

West freely bid 1♠ after the takeout double, so playing him for less than 4 spades means you are playing for him to have psyched. It just goes back to the earlier part of your post where you might as well play for JT doubleton.

Oh yeah forgot the 1S bid. Too busy trying to construct a hand where I could make it!

[kenrexford]

Two questions:

1. Why is LHO firing back another diamond and not another club?
2. When will 4♥ fail?

[FrancesHinden]

kenrexford, on Jul 23 2007, 03:51 PM, said:

Two questions:

1. Why is LHO firing back another diamond and not another club?
2. When will 4♥ fail?

The first is a good question, because it makes you think about the likely diamond layout.

I don't see the point of the second question. We aren't in 4H and it isn't matchpoints.

[kenrexford]

FrancesHinden, on Jul 23 2007, 10:30 AM, said:

kenrexford, on Jul 23 2007, 03:51 PM, said:

Two questions:

1. Why is LHO firing back another diamond and not another club?
2. When will 4♥ fail?

The first is a good question, because it makes you think about the likely diamond layout.

I don't see the point of the second question. We aren't in 4H and it isn't matchpoints.

MP might create other relevance. However, at IMP's this question is still relevant.

Suppose you are in 4S, but 3NT was a plausible other option. Suppose further that you have a 50-50 guess to make 4S. Suppose that option A, if wrong, will mean that 3NT also fails. Suppose that option B, if wrong, will mean that 3NT succeeds.

Go with option A. If you are wrong, 3NT also fails, and you lose nothing. If you are right, 3NT makes, and you gain nothing. If you go option B, you either lose a ton or gain a ton. Take out insurance.

This same principle applies here. You should be concerned most with layouts where 4♥ makes. For example, I'm not that concerned about a 4-1 diamond split, because the auction will usually make diamond Ace-diamond ruff-club back-diamond ruff a likely attack. 4♥ will fail. However, when diamonds are 3-2, 4♥ has more play.

[ralph23]

FrancesHinden, on Jul 23 2007, 07:16 AM, said:

...this doesn't really belong ni the BI forum, but there are still some vague possibilities for making the contract if you play a diamond to the 9 and East discards....

♣♦♥♠

There seems to be at least one other layout (other than those identified by Frances already) that will help us. {NB West must have been dealt 2 clubs exactly, else would not he surely lead one now and make declarer ruff with South's last trump?}

That is, if West bid 1 spade with:

♠87643
♥xx
♦AJ64
♣43

and East was dealt QJ of spades tight.

Then, we can win the diamond 9 at trick five, East discarding, and take 4 spade tricks (tricks 6 thru 9) from the top. Throw away 2 hearts and one club from North on tricks 7,8 and 9.

Trick 10, we ruff South's last spade in North.
Trick 11, return to South with North’s last heart.
Lead a heart from South, and West is finessed. He has J6 in trumps and North has Q8 behind him.

Is this (East holding QJ of spades tight) more likely that East being dealt JT of diamonds tight? I think it’s less likely because EW were dealt 7 spades and only 5 diamonds. So I think the percentage play is the Queen, but it's a lot more fun if the 9 is right b/c of the layout above.

NB -- Maybe the above reasoning on which is more probable (JT of ♦ vs. QJ of ♠) is incorrect, because we know West has 4+ spades. So the 7 EW spades cannot be divided arbitrarily (as the diamonds can be); West must have 4 or more of them. I think we can rule out his having 7 of them because surely he would have been bidding more.

So West has either 4,5 or 6 spades. Maybe that changes the probabilities sufficiently. Certainly, East is more likely to bid 3♣ holding QJ of spades after his partner has bid spades. And I think West is more likely to rush in with a 4 club bid holding AJxx of diamonds, because it surely sounds like partner has a stiff diamond.