[TimG]

ralph23, on Jul 25 2007, 12:52 PM, said:

TimG, on Jul 24 2007, 11:35 AM, said:

What mistake can partner make?

Oh no, what DMW means is, we're relying on declarer to make a mistake and try the ♥'s again. After all, he pondered before playing the ♥ the first time, as you recall.... suggesting he's come up with a plan. And we love his plan !

DMW's just suggesting, let declarer get the lead back and continue with his doomed plan. Don't let partner get the lead and run the risk of partner playing cutely, e.g. leading away from his King of ♠. Or away from his "imaginary" Queen of ♥. Just let declarer stew in his own juices. We've got the stage all set for this little deception. Just give the lead back to declarer.

It's all psychology at this point anyway so who knows what the "right" answer is, if there is one.

If both major suits are wrong for declarer, the defense has to cross in clubs and play a major now or declarer might run the diamonds and read the position correctly (if RHO lets a club go, declarer is almost sure to make even if he takes a losing finesse, because RHO will be endplayed -- if RHO holds onto a club, he has to give up his guard in one of the majors). But, the point is that playing a club and getting a major through dummy eliminates this possibility.

If both major suit cards are right for declarer, it doesn't really matter what the defense does -- declarer will "guess" right.

You are suggesting that when one major suit card is right and one wrong, and declarer has started down the wrong path, the defense should be passive.

Does this mean that if declarer had started down the right path, the defense ought to cash the club and present declarer a losing option by leading the other major?

I think you should do the same thing whether or not declarer has started down the right path. Otherwise, you will be giving declarer information. In this case, I think declarer can read into the passive defense (return a diamond) that the defense is happy with the goings on and perhaps declarer should rethink.

Maybe there is some reverse psychology possibilities -- that is if declarer starts off with hearts and that is right, maybe the defense should be passive to lull declarer into thinking that the defense is happy with the way things are going. But, I think that's a bit too deep.

I think the defense should always cash the club and play a major through to avoid giving anything away.

Now, maybe the real question is which major should LHO return: declarer's winning option or declarer's losing option? I tend to think that the return should be in the suit declarer did not play, spades in this case. Again, rather than get into the psychological guessing game, just play the other suit and avoid the possibility that declarer can read something into the choice.

[kenrexford]

Devil's advocate time!

Mrs. Guggenheim is my client, and my client is always right. She pays me for that. All I must do is to prove why. Let's see if winning the heart 10 might be right...

This AJ9 combination is one that has been analyzed to the nth degree. The common hook is the 9, catering to Q10x or K10x to the left. The common counter to that play is for LHO to pretend to split his honors with K10x or Q10x, to create the illusion of KQx, such that Declarer, on the second round of the suit, leads up to J9 and has what appears to be a 50-50 guess. If LHO knows that Declarer will stick in the 9 if he plays low, the honor pop is critical, as the only chance.

Of course, Declarer also knows this ruse and should not be fooled by the pop of the King or Queen. He sticks to his guns. However, this causes Declarer to wonder, when LHO plays low, as to why LHO did, in fact, play low. Very strange.

You get into bluff-and-double-bluff conspiracy theory after a while.

So, let's try this bluff-and-double-bluff scenario out further. If RHO wins the heart, however they win the heart, and fire back a club (the Guggenheim defense), Declarer has a rectified count, right? So, he has a few major-suit squeeze options.

He might be able to run a spade-heart squeeze against his LHO. He wins te heart return, runs the diamonds. LHO is caught in a major squeeze. If LHO has all but one spade, the King, Declarer might drop the stiff King.

Or, that same squeeze might also work against RHO.

What about LHO's first play on hearts, then? Had LHO held K10x or Q10x, he might have hopped. So, the winning of the honor by RHO sounds like it is more likely from KQ, or from KQ10 as a falsecard.

Further, had LHO held honor doubleton, even without the 10, he might pop it, to give Declarer a false sense of security with regard to hearts, to dissuade the spade hook. LHO would not make that play if he lacked the spade King.

So, it may well appear that RHO has the heart KQ and the spade King, and hence vulnerability to a major-suit squeeze, if Mrs. Guggenheim wins the 10.

Of course, that requires Declarer to have a third heart, but she did pay me for this excuse.

[TimG]

I don't think there is a squeeze against east when the clubs have been played and west plays a major through (as the pro would surely do), since dummy must discard before east.

[kenrexford]

TimG, on Jul 25 2007, 01:35 PM, said:

I don't think there is a squeeze against east when the clubs have been played and west plays a major through (as the pro would surely do), since dummy must discard before east.

You are right, so long as Declarer really does have only two hearts. If he has a third heart, and the spade Jack for that matter, then he has a two-way Vienna Coup major squeeze against East.

[ralph23]

kenrexford, on Jul 25 2007, 01:43 PM, said:

If he has a third heart, and the spade Jack for that matter, then he has a two-way Vienna Coup major squeeze against East.

♣♦♥♠

If declarer had the Jack of ♠, he would be saved all this cogitation because he would have tried the ♠ finesse as soon as he got the lead. He has the AQ in dummy and has 8 tops from the get-go.

Also by hypothesis (per the initial write up) declarer has precisely 2 ♥. Yea, he could have misbid, but not in this forum . Even this declarer would raise ♥ with three pieces when opener bids and rebids them.

Poor Mrs. Guggenheim .... she sure has to put up with a lot... I trust she pays well ??

[kenrexford]

OK. Let's think this through a bit more...

Everyone knows that West would hop the honor from H10x(x) or from Hx(x). So, West cannot have that. West could have Hxxx, no honor, or both.

From both, everyone knows that West can hop an honor, as this forces a restricted choice, playing West for one honor and not both, and avoiding the "he ducked so the 9 ain't working" conspiracy theory play.

So, West looks to have nothing, or Hxxx. That gives East KQ10(x)(x), or H10 doubleton.

With KQ10(x)(x), the honor play is the obvious falsecard (when it matters), so Mrs. Guggenheim decides whether appearing to have H10 doubleton might lead Declarer wrong.

If Mrs. Guggenheim does have H10 doubleton, only West can protect hearts. So, we are back to a spade-heart squeeze against West, as an alternative line for Declarer. She will convince Declarer of taking that line by playing the 10.

The club comes back. Partner must be in on the secret. He should be; she paid him enough. He will realize that there is not much tobreak up a real squeeze, if one existed, and will exit a diamond. This creates a chance for a deep game ruse.

On the run of the diamonds, Mrs. Guggenheim can pitch her heart King. Why would she do that, you ask? Well, she is creating an elaborate illusion. She wants Declarer to think that she thinks that he has a stiff. If he has a doubleton, nothing matters because the squeeze works. But, if he has a stiff, he will reach an end position where East must have the spade King and two others for her discard of the heart honor. Declarer smells a deep game attempt to fool him.

However, as Declarer has the doubleton heart, he can now simply finesse the heart as his alternative line. This, of course, requires that Declarer had removed the spade Ace early on, for ease of card-watching.

This would be a much sexier line had Mrs. Guggenheim not had the spade 10, of course, as the spade Ace would be a much better play, catering to a possible stiff Jack with West and a Vienna Coup squeeze against East thereby enabled. But, hands are not perfect.