[Trumpace]

Scoring: IMP

Contract 7♠

---

In a team game, Benito Garozzo was South on this deal in 7 spades, and received a spade lead.

Benito only made 12 tricks, while the declarer in the other room in the same contract and same lead made the contract.

Can you explain why Benito did not make the contract?

Adv/Adv+ please hide your answers.

[hotShot]

More interesting is: Who were the brilliant EW?

[jocdelevat]

Maybe he was watching a movie during play or he was tired.

I see some problems for entry in dummy hand however you need only one finnese to take if you trump out first and run hearts discard a d or a c..

[jtfanclub]

West overcalled two hearts?

[plaur]

Did he run all spades, then ♦AK and ♣A hoping ♣K with 4 ♥'s offside ?

[HeavyDluxe]

I'm terrible at this... But might as well guess.

Spoiler

1) Win 1st spade in hand.
2) Spade back to dummy Q
3) Finesse diamonds
4) Heart to dummy K
5) Finesse clubs
6) Pull trumps

You're left with
J-A-AK-A in hand, and trumps are all gone.

eek?

Whoops... it helps to read the actual question.

Spoiler

If you win the first spade in dummy, you're stuck

This post has been edited by HeavyDluxe: 2007-July-17, 13:56

[TimG]

hotShot, on Jul 17 2007, 02:15 PM, said:

More interesting is: Who were the brilliant EW?

Kantar-Eisenberg?

[bid_em_up]

Trumpace, on Jul 17 2007, 01:46 PM, said:

Scoring: IMP

Contract 7♠

---

In a team game, Benito Garozzo was South on this deal in 7 spades, and received a spade lead.

Benito only made 12 tricks, while the declarer in the other room in the same contract and same lead made the contract.

Can you explain why Benito did not make the contract?

Adv/Adv+ please hide your answers.

Spoiler

If I had to guess, its because he played for the hand holding 4+ hearts to also hold either the diamond Q or the club K. This makes it impossible to guard both suits if you can read the ending properly along with the additional chance that the heart guard, diamond Q and club K are all in the same hand, which eliminates any guesswork whatsoever, even when either finesse would lose. However, this is just a guess.

Squeezes are much nicer than simple finesses.

[ralph23]

Because 75 is bigger than 50 !

The critical minor honors are split in one of four ways: both on the left, both on the right, King on right/Queen on left, King on left/Queen on right.

So the odds are about 75% (or maybe 68%) that the hand with the long ♥ also holds at least one of the critical minor suit honors ... it doesn't matter which one. Obviously the hand with the long ♥ (assuming he has exactly 4♥) can't possibly discard a ♥.

[n1: Calculating the actual odds is an interesting proposition. The hand with the long ♥ can have anything from the wild distribution of 4♠, 7♥ and two minor suit cards (greating reducing the chance that he holds a critical honor), to zero ♠, 4♥ and 9 minor suit cards (giving him 9 slots out of a total of 15 EW minor suit cards). Other than tediously computing each permutation, I don't know how you would calculate it.
n2: The long ♥ hand could have 5+ ♥, so discarding a ♥ by him is not clearly wrong.]

So Benito reasons as follows: After nine tricks, the long ♥ hand must come down to four cards. He can't continue to hold his 4 ♥ and the minor honor: he must part with one.

So: First, I take three rounds of trumps. Now, as part 2 of this 4-part movement, cash the AK of ♦ and the A of ♣. This will make it easy to read on the squeeze card.

Now, part 3, cash the final three trumps. On the last trump, the long ♥ hand will be squeezed (if the cards are arranged as I hope). I don't have to count or do anything as it is 100% mechanical .... I just notice whether, after trick nine, anyone has discarded either minor suit honor. Therefore, in part 4: If so, I cash my good minor honor, and if not, I try to run four ♥ tricks.

NB - You can reverse parts 2 & 3 if you like. Difference is aesthetic only.

[SoTired]

Spoiler

The odds of a finesse is 50%. The odds that the hand with 4+♥ also has a minor honor is greater than 50%. Normally one or both honors is 75% but the extra heart lowers the odds a little, but it is >50%. After running all the spades, Benito has to decide whether someone was squeezed. If someone was squeezed, Benito has to play the top minor honors before trying the hearts. A well placed false-card may have pushed Benito over the top, but it seems to me the squeeze is a higher odds play.

[ArcLight]

By playing AK♦ before taking the ♣finesse, you improve your success rate a little. There is no need to take 2 finesses because of the heart discard.

5-2 with Q drop = 9%
6-1 with Q drop = 1%
call it around 10%

0.1 + (0.9 * 50% = .45) = 55% chance of success

The rest is Hidden below:

Spoiler

It seems te squeeze has a better chance as the 4+♥ will have a greater than 55% chance of holding at least one minor suit honor.

It wont be 75%, becaus eof teh heart lenth, but its a lot better than 55%.


What kind of squeeze is that? A Triple squeeze?

[G_R__E_G]

Spoiler

I don't think there's any ambiguity or any falsecards that could mislead declarer. Simply run all of the spades and the minor suit tops leaving ♥KQ75 in dummy and ♥A8 ♦J and ♣Q in hand. If neither missing minor suit honour has shown then play on hearts. This works any time when the defender that's guarding hearts holds one (or both) of the missing minor honours which is very close to a 75% chance. Taking the two finesses is only about a 25% chance.

[G_R__E_G]

Spoiler

Oops, just remembered you only need to take one finesse so finessing is 50% not 25%. Still, squeeze line is better.

[inquiry]

Trumpace, on Jul 17 2007, 01:46 PM, said:

Can you explain why Benito did not make the contract?

Adv/Adv+ please hide your answers.

Because he played the superior line which didn't work on the actual layout. Sometimes inferior lines work on the lay of the cards. Others have given the answer involving ignoring the finessees and why, so I will not repeat it.

[FrancesHinden]

Isn't this hand straight out of 'Bridge with the Blue Team' ?

[Trumpace]

FrancesHinden, on Jul 17 2007, 05:06 PM, said:

Isn't this hand straight out of 'Bridge with the Blue Team' ?

Yes, that is true.

[Wackojack]

It seems to me that there is another line where the odds are something like 75% in succeeding, that would have made as the cards lie.

Spoiler

It is to cash ♦AK only (not the ♣A) before running the spades. Then:

1. If east guards hearts and
both minors then east is squeezed =100%
clubs only ditto =100%
diamonds only ditto = 100%
neither minor down =0%

2. If west guards hearts and
both minors then west is squeezed =100%
clubs only then you have a 50% guess
diamonds only ditto =50%
neither minor then east is squeezed =100%

I am happy to be shown to be wrong

[SoTired]

enuf hiding....

Quote

<snip>
2. If west guards hearts and
both minors then west is squeezed =100% 
clubs only then you have a 50% guess       
diamonds only ditto =50%                         
neither minor then east is squeezed =100% 

If west guards hearts and diam, you must cash ♣A to squeeze West and you won't know West is squeezed until you try cashing the hearts. So for the squeeze to work, after running the spades, you must cash your 3 minor honors before trying the hearts. You can't try the hearts first, because you won't know what to pitch on the 3rd heart.

Sorry... I don't see any way you can combine the squeeze and a finesse. It looks like an either/or situation. And the squeeze is higher probability than a finesse.

[bid_em_up]

SoTired, on Jul 18 2007, 08:53 AM, said:

enuf hiding....

Quote

<snip>
2. If west guards hearts and
both minors then west is squeezed =100%  
clubs only then you have a 50% guess        
diamonds only ditto =50%                          
neither minor then east is squeezed =100% 

If west guards hearts and diam, you must cash ♣A to squeeze West and you won't know West is squeezed until you try cashing the hearts. So for the squeeze to work, after running the spades, you must cash your 3 minor honors before trying the hearts. You can't try the hearts first, because you won't know what to pitch on the 3rd heart.

Sorry... I don't see any way you can combine the squeeze and a finesse. It looks like an either/or situation. And the squeeze is higher probability than a finesse.

You dont need to "know" what to pitch on the 3rd heart, necessarily.

I think that by reducing to a 5 card ending (after 6 spades and 2 diamonds),

- Ax J AQ opposite - KQxx - x

and then cashing 3 hearts, you are likely to have a better idea what to do when at trick 12, you lead the club from the table (having pitched the diamond J on the 3rd heart).

In some cases, East (or West) will have already solved this problem for you, because they have truly been squeezed. In other cases, the club K will come up when you lead the club from the table (if East held both minor suit cards, he has been forced to ditch the diamond Q or blank the club K at this point).

It is only when West holds the club K and East the diamond Q, that you have to decide whether to finesse the K or play for the drop of it. Its still a guess at this point, but you may have a better count on the hand by this point. Personally, I would think it best to finesse at this point as East has room for two cards (Kx of clubs), as opposed to West being known to still hold a heart, leaving room for only one card (the diamond Q or the club K).

In all other cases, I think it is irrelevant. Either you already have it made (whether you know it or not), or you were always going down.

But...its lunchtime, I'm hungry and not looking at this closely either, so I could be wrong.

[Badmonster]

Trumpace, on Jul 17 2007, 01:46 PM, said:

Scoring: IMP

Contract 7♠

---

In a team game, Benito Garozzo was South on this deal in 7 spades, and received a spade lead.

Benito only made 12 tricks, while the declarer in the other room in the same contract and same lead made the contract.

Can you explain why Benito did not make the contract?

Adv/Adv+ please hide your answers.

My guess is he runs the spades leaving at least one club or one diamond in the dummy, takes his ace of hearts ace of diamonds and crosses to hearts in the dummy and plays a few rounds of hearts hoping for something good to shake out?