[Codo]

You play 3 ♦ after both opponents bid.
The diamond suit is

---

At mps, both opps bid, pd has a strong hand, your hand is close to a yarb. But you win the lead once and you may win it once again.
How do you tackle the trumps?
After your lead, lho plays the 4

Sorry I do not remember the bidding and the total hand, but hopefully you can answer with this few informations.

[gwnn]

I seem to remember @ MP you need to play the Q because this is the only chance to take 5 tricks.

[Gerben42]

To get 5 tricks you need to play for Kx onside now, so small to the Q.

Needing 4 tricks with only 1 entry: Things are equal, if RHO has a singleton honor you will get 4 tricks if you guess which one, if you guess wrong you lose 2. But in case of 4-0 trumps you need to start with the 8 and run it, so that's best.

Edit: At MPs if you don't know how many tricks you need, MPbest = small to Q.

[Fluffy]

teh ace might score 5 tricks as well, but queen is just more likelly.

[foo]

AQT96
+
8732

1st, you are not taking 5 tricks unless the suit is
Kx+Jx, K54+J, KJ+54, KJx+x, or KJ54+0

If KJ+54, you are making 5 tricks no matter what you do, so let's ignore that one.

If you feel Kx+Jx or Kxx+J is more likely, your line is
Hook the Q and if the J drops run the 8; else play the A next

If you feel KJx+x or KJ54+0 is more likely, your line is
Put the 8 on the table, intending to run it unless covered.
If the 8 is covered, try to win cheaply.
If the 8 holds, put the 7 on the table and repeat the process.

Apriori, the 1st set is ~20% and the 2nd set is ~17%.

[TimG]

foo, on Jul 4 2007, 06:56 AM, said:

AQT96
+
8732

1st, you are not taking 5 tricks unless the suit is
Kx+Jx, K54+J, KJ+54, KJx+x, or KJ54+0

You also can make 5 tricks if the suit is Jxx+K.

[Stephen Tu]

Mainly it depends on how much you think chances of a void with RHO are reduced from his failure to bid more, and whether you have entry back to hand. (Will LHO be able to insert honor from KJx knowing you have no entry back to hand?)

With plenty of entries and you don't think possibility of 4-0 is massively reduced, MP best is the deep hook, otherwise Q is best.

Stiff J and stiff K offside cancel each other out in terms of one line being better than the other. So you are comparing Kx onside vs. KJx, KJxx onside.

Quote

I seem to remember @ MP you need to play the Q because this is the only chance to take 5 tricks.

Not "only". Just most likely chance. Also, Q takes most tricks on average. But this is one of the few strange combos (assuming 4-0 not reduced, enough entries), where MP-best is not the same as max trick line. Q is max trick line mainly because if RHO has stiff J, you gain 2 tricks (since if you hook and lose, next play is A), while if RHO has stiff K, hooking deep only gains 1 trick, which makes up for the overall lower frequency of the hook Q line. But at MP vs. pairs taking the alternate line, you don't get extra MP for beating them 2 tricks instead of 1 trick, so frequency of the various combos is all that matters.

I think though, given that both opps bid but didn't compete 3/3, that RHO is less likely to have either void or stiff than normal, enough to give Q the edge on the problem as presented.

[Badmonster]

I thought the queen because the jack isn't likely to be a problem and the odds are bettter on the finesse than the drop. I think.

[foo]

TimG, on Jul 4 2007, 09:01 AM, said:

foo, on Jul 4 2007, 06:56 AM, said:

AQT96 
+ 
8732

1st, you are not taking 5 tricks unless the suit is
Kx+Jx, K54+J, KJ+54, KJx+x, or KJ54+0

You also can make 5 tricks if the suit is Jxx+K.

Only if you magically know the layout

Playing line "a" I gave; you only get 3 tricks.
Playing line "b" I gave; you only get 4 tricks.

To make 5 tricks vs this layout, you have to play specifically for this exact layout.

If you can pull it off, you are going to have Them thinking you have been peeking at their cards for the rest of the time they are ATT.

[TimG]

foo, on Jul 4 2007, 12:53 PM, said:

Only if you magically know the layout

Agreed. It just seemed like an omission.

[rbforster]

This loses to the 4-0 onside case, but playing the A and then leading up the Q picks up all the 3-1 cases with a stiff honor offside. I guess it's a safety play for 1 loser rather than a max-tricks play though.