[paulg]

Scoring: IMP

.N...S
.1♠..2♣
.3♣..3NT
All Pass

Lead: ♦6 (4th best)

---

Final of the national championship so the opposition are good.

East wins the ♦A and returns the ♦3, West following with the ♦7 as the ♦J holds.

You have four hearts, two diamonds and a spade.

What do you do now?

[han]

There was nonsense here.

[foo]

C's has 3.5 expected tricks. S's has 3.25+ expected tricks.

This is IMPs. We play to make. We need 2 tricks.

The C suit has marginally higher expectation, so
T2: Hx to the HK
T3: C6 or C7 from the board.
The standard safety play here is
T3a= If E plays Cx or CA insert C9. If E plays CQ, cover.
Since we can't afford to let the opponents in more than once more, we can't afford the safety play, so
T3b= If E plays Cx or CQ, insert CK. If E plays CA, insert C9.
(This increases our odds of taking the 1st C trick by ~20%: Q+Axx, Qx+Ax)

If the CK wins w/o the CQ being seen, then C's are one of
- + AQxx (you will know this...)
x + AQx
Qx + Ax
INFERENCE: abandon C's and play for split honors in S's

If the CK wins and the CQ has been seen, then C's are one of
xx + AQ
Q + Axx (you will know this...)
INFERENCE: drive out the CA and claim.

If the CK loses and the CQ has been seen, claim.

If the CK loses and the CQ has not been seen, you are in trouble.
Abandon C's and pray for both S honors to be onside.
Put the potentially deceptive S5 on the table, intending to hook the S9.
If the S9 wins, run your H's, and then put the ST on the table.
You are praying for W to have the S's and E to have the D's.

[Fluffy]

club finese is 50%

spades 3-3 or a doubleton 8 with honnors split is much less

the only combination I see is to try for asingleton ♠ honnor then make ♣ finese so ♠6 to the Ace and run ♣J.

[FrancesHinden]

foo, on May 21 2007, 08:07 AM, said:

C's has 3.5 expected tricks.  S's has 3.25+ expected tricks.

This is IMPs.  We play to make. We need 2 tricks.

The C suit has marginally higher expectation, so

The expected total number of tricks in the suit is irrelevant.
All that is relevant is the chance of making two extra tricks whilst only losing the lead once.

If you had QJ1098 opposite xx in one suit, that has 3 expected tricks, while AQ10x opposite xx has rather fewer, but we'd still play on the second suit.

Quote

the only combination I see is to try for asingleton ♠ honnor then make ♣ finese so ♠6 to the Ace and run ♣J.

Singleton ♠ honour doesn't help. Low spade to the ace, with an honour falling, spade to the 10 which holds, heart to dummy, knock out the spade, diamond back and we can't cash both the hearts and the spades.

The only three lines that actually have a genuine chance are:
i) run the CJ (if it loses you are off)
ii) club to the king, if that holds play on spades (if it loses you are off)
iii) club to the king followed by a second club
iv) play for spades 3-3 with honours split or 2 honours onside

iii) is definitely worse than i), and (iv) is definitely worse than (i)

i) is pretty much exactly 50%

The chance of spades coming in is roughly 75% of 3-3 breaks, or 27% plus a bit for the H8 doubleton onside.
ii) gives the extra chance of singleton CQ in either hand, on top of spades coming in with the CA not singleton onside.

This still seems much worse than the club finesse. So it's a bit boring, but I'd simply cross in hearts and run the CJ.

[foo]

Hmmm,

Quote

i) run the CJ (if it loses you are off)

Works only when C's are AQ onside? 24%

Quote

ii) club to the king, if that holds play on spades (if it loses you are off)
iii) club to the king followed by a second club

Since we have 1 more D stop, C to CK works as long as A is onside? 50%

If RHO pops the CA and the CQ stays hidden, then C's had to be one of
-:AQxx 4.78%
x:AQx 12.43%
xx:AQ 6.78%
Qxx:A 6.22%
Going back to dummy and finessing the C8 (we threw the C9 before to keep from blocking C's, natch) works in 23.99/30.21= 79.41% yes?
For an overall chance of 39.71%

Unfortunately, if the CK wins w/o the CQ being seen, C's were one of
:AQxx 4.78%
x:AQx 12.43%
Qx:Ax 13.57%
Since the odds are against C's 22, don't we then have to abandon C's and play on S's?
OTOH, Since we now have 8 tricks and have not lost the lead yet, we will succeed playing on S's as long as S are not HH offside, yes?
The good S positions are ~86% but we only play this ~31% of the time, so the overall odds are 26.66%

...and if CK loses but the CQ has been played in the process, aren't C's setup?
That's 12.42%

So playing towards the CK and doing the Right Thing afterward works ~79% of the time, yes?

Quote

iv) play for spades 3-3 with honours split or 2 honours onside

S's Hxx:Hxx is 21.32%. HH onside is 24% Total ~45%


Thus the best line is the one I gave involving the CK at ~79%, and running the CJ is the worst line, yes? Or have I missed something here?

[Fluffy]

foo, on May 21 2007, 03:08 PM, said:

Hmmm,

Quote

i) run the CJ (if it loses you are off)

Works only when C's are AQ onside? 24%

Do you have any clue what you are talking about?


I guess very few people will let the contract make when a singleton ♠ honnor is there , well can still try ♣ finese later.

[FrancesHinden]

[quote name='foo' date='May 21 2007, 04:08 PM'] Hmmm,
[quote]
i) run the CJ (if it loses you are off)
[/quote]
Works only when C's are AQ onside? 24%

[QUOTE] [/quote]
For the hard of thinking:

run the CJ (if it loses to the Queen you are off)

50%

[hatchett]

Quote

Or have I missed something here

Yes

For starters; Running the club J works whenever the Q is onside which is 50% not 24%.

You also missed out Ax onside Qx offside in your analysis. Low to the K in nowhere near a 79% line. For a start it loses to AQxx offisde, AQx offside and AQ offside and A offside which is about 44% of all the holdings, and even if it wins you still have to guess what to do next.

[paulg]

I was commentating on this hand and was surprised when declarer played the ♠10 and ran it when ducked. This was the only successful line as both club honours sat over the ♣K.

Yesterday I had the opportunity to discuss the hand with declarer. I said that I'd expected him to play clubs (and Michael Rosenberg said the same as Frances when he popped into vugraph) but I was told that I had underestimated the psychological element.

Declarer's plan was to play clubs if the ♠10 was covered. His opponent's were the weakest pair in the final and he didn't think they'd often split with Hxx/Hx.

I guess you just had to be there, as in isolation this looks a poor line for a (very) good player.

Paul

[FrancesHinden]

foo, on May 21 2007, 04:08 PM, said:

So playing towards the CK and doing the Right Thing afterward works ~79% of the time, yes?

I really can't be bothered to go through all your weird calculations in detail, but this is obviously wrong.

If RHO has singleton CA you are off; and if the CK loses to the CA and RHO does not have singleton CQ you are off.

So this line can never be better than 50% and is certainly worse.

[foo]

OK, I feel stupid. Frances meant that you were off if and only if the CJ loses to the CQ, not the CA. She simply said "if it loses you are off", which I took to mean losing to =either= the CQ or the CA.

[foo]

FrancesHinden, on May 21 2007, 11:23 AM, said:

foo, on May 21 2007, 04:08 PM, said:

So playing towards the CK and doing the Right Thing afterward works ~79% of the time, yes?

I really can't be bothered to go through all your weird calculations in detail, but this is obviously wrong.

If RHO has singleton CA you are off; and if the CK loses to the CA and RHO does not have singleton CQ you are off.

So this line can never be better than 50% and is certainly worse.

Why are you automatically down if C's are Qxx:A?

2nd hand wins the CA, They knock out the DK.

You go to the board and you play Cx toward and win the DK (We now have 8 tricks and need only 1 more, but They don't know that.); but you get the bad news.
...So you play S's for HH onside by playing the S5 toward the S9 in Dummy to give LHO a reason not to split their honors.

5 -> AJ9xx,
Are you always going to split your honors here as 2nd hand?

Desperate yes, but it's better than 0% (it has a chance if S's are KQx, KQxx, or KQxxx onside, ~22% of the possible S holdings).

Qxx:A is only 1/16 of the possible C holdings, so having to do this seems fairly unlikely.

[cherdano]

foo, on May 21 2007, 11:11 AM, said:

Why are you automatically down if C's are Qxx:A?

2nd hand wins the CA, They knock out the DK.

You go to the board and you play Cx toward and win the DK (We now have 8 tricks and need only 1 more, but They don't know that.); but you get the bad news.
...So you play S's for HH onside by playing the S5 toward the S9 in Dummy to give LHO a reason not to split their honors.

5 -> AJ9xx,
Are you always going to split your honors here as 2nd hand?

If I am defending 3N and we have just established my 5+card suit then yes, even way past midnight I would split honors.

[jdonn]

Deleting my post, since I made an analysis that ignorred a pertinent holding (singleton Q onside). I hope no one quoted me

[paulg]

cardsharp, on May 21 2007, 04:58 PM, said:

I was commentating on this hand and was surprised when declarer played the ♠10 and ran it when ducked. This was the only successful line as both club honours sat over the ♣K.

Yesterday I had the opportunity to discuss the hand with declarer. I said that I'd expected him to play clubs (and Michael Rosenberg said the same as Frances when he popped into vugraph) but I was told that I had underestimated the psychological element.

Declarer's plan was to play clubs if the ♠10 was covered. His opponent's were the weakest pair in the final and he didn't think they'd often split with Hxx/Hx.

I guess you just had to be there, as in isolation this looks a poor line for a (very) good player.

Paul

Declarer, who does not read these forums, bent my ear again last night at the club with some further reasons for playing spades.

Firstly the opposition card strongly implies that the diamonds are 4-5. This reduces the odds of the club finesse working to 8:17 (or 47%).

Additionally, East had not flickered over the opening bid and declarer believed that he would have done something holding ♦AQxxx and ♣A: he may not have bid, but he would not have been able to pass smoothly (he was a weak player).

All of this means that the two lines are getting a lot closer. Declarer said that you had to be there