[mikeh]

jdonn, on May 20 2007, 02:46 PM, said:

Frankly, this is the sort of disaster you have to have from time to time or else you are letting them push you around too easily. Even here the opponents were making game so it's a loss of imps but not a match ruining disaster. Sometimes partner has no tricks and no support, so be it.

100% agreed.

I used to play a style that was based on minimizing disasters. Then I learned to play more aggressively... we had and have more disasters than I was used to, but we also have a lot more good results...on balance, the aggressive, risk-taking approach is the clear winner, as is evident any time you watch hi-level bridge on vu-graph.... there are still some strong conservative types around, but they are in the distinct minority amongst top-flight players.

[mike777]

As I said it seems bidding 5D in this situation or doing whatever the crowd is doing is being pushed around. The opp bidding has pushed you to bid 5D when you would not otherwise. It seems passing or standing up and going against the crowd is refusing to be pushed around. It can be far easier to just go along rather than take an anti majority viewpoint on a bridge subject.

Of course whether one should allow oneself to be pushed to bid 5D as winning bridge is another matter and another discussion. It just seems logic dictates if you are not going to be pushed around you should choose Pass here. Bidding 5D is indeed taking the push.

[jdeegan]

foo, on May 19 2007, 02:32 PM, said:

Sambolino, on May 18 2007, 06:24 AM, said:

< >


your RHO (dealer) opens 4H (you know his style, surely has a solid suit)
it's bd2 in a 14bd team match against fair opposition

I seem to recall old folk wisdom that one should never preempt a preempter...

While my D's are very nice, this is still a 11 HCP, 6 loser hand.
=AT UNFAVORABLE VULNERABILITY=

The only reason to bid here is if the odds favor us being in Game.
If there is any question as to whether We are saccing or not, bidding is suicidal.

GOP needs 4 cover cards for me to make 5D.
We may belong in 4S. For which he needs 3 good cards opposite my hand.
Worse, =I'm in front of GOP=. He may take me seriously and put me in 6.

Being aggressive about finding red games at IMPs does not mean one should make "Marie Antoinette" bids (those that put our head in the guillotine.).

There are too many minuses and too high a risk in bidding.
Pass.

I have to agree with this posting. Look at it this way: I have 11 HCP and opener has 8-10 HCP. A 50-50 split of the outstanding high cards would leave about 10 HCP for partner. With minor suit finesses (if any) less than 50-50 on the bidding, his expected 10 HCP usually won't leave me any decent play for 5♦. A red vs white save against 4♥ seems a minor possibility, here. So, opposite the average hand, it seems to me that 5♦ loses. I think this makes it a losing position, on balance. Also, with a strongish hand partner will double or bid 4♠, so passing here is not taking an irrevokable position.

At MP's or against stronger opposition at IMP's I would be more likely to take a chance on 5♦.

[jdonn]

mike777, on May 20 2007, 05:30 PM, said:

As I said it seems bidding 5D in this situation or doing whatever the crowd is doing is being pushed around. The opp bidding has pushed you to bid 5D when you would not otherwise. It seems passing or standing up and going against the crowd is refusing to be pushed around. It can be far easier to just go along rather than take an anti majority viewpoint on a bridge subject.

Of course whether one should allow oneself to be pushed to bid 5D as winning bridge is another matter and another discussion. It just seems logic dictates if you are not going to be pushed around you should choose Pass here. Bidding 5D is indeed taking the push.

Lol Mike giving English lessons, now I've seen it all

I think you are mixing up being pushed around (a non-literal saying) with being pushed up (literally in the bidding).

[mike777]

Trust me my English background is better than yours.
If you do not think bidding 5d is being pushed around, go back to school.

I agree my spelling on this forum could improve a bit late night. Cheers! And love your bridge comments. I learn.

[neilkaz]

mike777, on May 20 2007, 09:57 PM, said:

Trust me my English background is better than yours.
If you do not think bidding 5d is being pushed around, go back to school.

I agree my spelling on this forum could improve a bit late night. Cheers! And love your bridge comments. I learn.

Who cares whose English is better ? Speak in broken English..toss in a little French or Spanish or Italian..most of us can figure out what you mean.

..anyhow..I'd love to see a sim of this hand assuming opener had a very sound (as specified) 4♥ preempt.

.. neilkaz ..just trying to learn to play better

[foo]

[jdonn]

foo, on May 21 2007, 01:07 AM, said:

Must have been "fun" bringing this result to teammates -800 or -1100 instead of -420 can cost matches at IMPs.

It was -800 not -1100, no need to exagerate to make your point.

Quote

Worse, 4M may not even make!  In which case you are -800 or -1100 instead of being +50 or +100.

If they were down partner would be stronger, and it would be -200 or 500, alternatively west would not be strong enough to double and it would be -100 or 200. In that case bidding would still have been wrong, but again no need to exagerate to make your point.

Quote

My estimate is that a direct 5D on this hand over a 4M preempt rates to be the wrong action ~9/10.  And that doesn't take into account the additional negatives due to the unfavorable vulnerability.

The additional negatives when bidding is wrong are also additional positives when bidding is right.

Quote

It's a bit frightening that players of jdonn's and mikeh's caliber are thinking otherwise.

Lol you said it not me, but if players you think are of that caliber believe something, you might do well to listen

Quote

The traditional range for a 4M preempt is 3-8.  Particularly at Favorable vulnerability, it would be unusual for a 1st or 2nd chair 4M opening to be "heavy".
(Yes, I know it was 11 HCP this time.  Methinks EW knew NS would bid on the slightest excuse to avoid being "stolen from".  EW may have set NS up and if so, NS fell for it.  OTOH, Dealer risked missing a slam to do it.)

So what you are saying is that bidding on these hands actually causes our opponents to misbid in general and miss slams. Are these missed slams on other boards being accounted for in your analysis?

[han]

I think it is quite a bit more likely that both 4H and 5D make than that you go for 800 while they don't have game. Note that the double game swing is a bigger swing than the disaster you talk about. So this is just as much a "disaster".

You have a guess to make on this hand. You are not going to get them all right, and sometimes you will have to go to your teammates with a terrible score. It is part of the game. So you don't want to pass on hands where the expectation is better when you bid 5D. If you let your fear of a big minus lead you then you won't make the best bids.

We can argue about what the percentage call is but it is really hard to argue such a thing without doing a simulation. This isn't easy either because it depends on the hands that RHO would bid 4H with, and how often LHO (and also partner) would make the right decision over 5D.

Another option is to look at what some world class players would do with such a hand. They presumably have had many similar hands and have given it a lot of thought. I think I have learned a lot by reading the posts of the (unfortunately too few) world class players who post here.

[cherdano]

Hannie, on May 21 2007, 12:50 AM, said:

I think I have learned a lot by reading the posts of the (unfortunately too few) world class players who post here.

Too true, I should post more often.

[foo]

Josh,

1= 5DX here was =supposed= to be -1100. A defensive error allowed NS to "escape" for "only" -800.

2= 4M may not make not just because NS are stronger, but also because the hand is a horrible misfit or because the values are in bad places for declarer (The HK offside, etc) despite NS's strength.
No matter how you attempt to "bob and weave" or sugar coat it, overcalling 5D here is simply not likely to work out well and pass here is far more likely to work out well.

3= yep, despite our disagreements at times, I recognize you usually know what you are talking about bridge-wise. Don't let it go to your head. You aren't jlall or mikeh yet. Let alone any of the internationalists around here.

[jdonn]

lol wtf

1: You mean the defense didn't take all its tricks in an unclear position where no player's shape was known, making a bid work better or less badly than it should in theory? I don't believe it! That never happens!

2: If the cards are offside for them they are onside for us, or vice versa. You can't have both sides going for numbers because they lose every finesse!
When your opponent opens at the 4 level, and you are void in that suit with a 7 card suit of my own, is that what you call a horrible misfit?

3: Let me do some paraphrasing of the last posts
foo: i think josh and someone else are good despite their opinion on this topic
josh: ok if you think we are good then maybe you should think what we are saying is true
foo: dont get cocky josh you arent THAT good!
Where did that come from...

Look, see the last sentence of your second point. You are speaking with a LOT of authority for a position that is entirely subjective, is clearly minority, and has been openly disagreed with by your beloved jlall and mikeh.

[foo]

*sigh* the fact that you espouse such unrestrained aggression as you are here is what makes it clear that you are not evaluating this situation optimally.

Since logic doesn't seem to be working...

IIRC, you are computer literate enough to program some? Go grab a decent simulation tool, put the two known hands in and let the other 2 be dealt randomly.
Heck you can do it w/ GIB or Jack and not even have program at all.

Then overcall 5D at unfavorable vulnerability on all of them and see what happens.

EDIT: To heck with it. I'll do the math over the next few days and post the results.

[jdonn]

foo, on May 21 2007, 03:18 AM, said:

Since logic doesn't seem to be working...

LOL you have made my day

[foo]

jdonn, on May 21 2007, 03:32 AM, said:

foo, on May 21 2007, 03:18 AM, said:

Since logic doesn't seem to be working...

LOL you have made my day

Give me a few days and I'll post the mathematical analysis and proof

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

#1 looking at the 4H opener, the bid is certainly not
mainstream, the bid is not bad given the colors,
but nobody could argue with 1H (you hold a solid
suit and 2 Aces)
Give partner a club single and you are making 6H.

#2 In my opinion, bidding 5D vs. passing is close,
and the result (-1100) is rather unlucky, we did
run in super max. 4H opener, having a strong partner,
and on the other hand our partner is broke.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[helene_t]

5♦ wtp. I'm short in hearts so it's my obligation to take action.

[jtfanclub]

P_Marlowe, on May 21 2007, 03:39 AM, said:

#1 looking at the 4H opener, the bid is certainly not
mainstream, the bid is not bad given the colors,
but nobody could argue with 1H (you hold a solid
suit and 2 Aces)
Give partner a club single and you are making 6H.

Seems to me that in little old lady bridge (where you need 2/3 or 3/5 of the top honors to open 2 of a major) that hand is a typical 4♥ opener, yes?

I was wondering what the original poster meant by 'solid suit'. Now I know, I think.