[FrancesHinden]

It's a while since I've presented any of my 3NT contracts, so here's one for May.
This is a real toughie, so I'm going to give a couple of hints

(p.s. taking Michael Rosenberg's general advice I haven't checked my analysis with Deep Finesse, so I may have missed something)


K1052
J6
A
A97643

Q
AQ854
KQJ1094
5

Love all, imps, West dealt
1NT 2D p 3C
p 3S p 3NT

1NT = 11-14, balanced no 5-card major
2D = spades and another, anchor to shorter major ("asptro")
3C = FG relay
3S = 4 spades, 5 or 6 clubs

After some thought, LHO leads the CQ (standard leads)
Plan the play in detail.

A couple of hints:
1. As long as LHO has what he has shown on the auction, the contract is cold
2. However, on best defence you can be put to a guess, where the key question may well be "who has the two of clubs?" How and why?

[Fluffy]

I ain't going too deep on first analysis as to find the ♣2 question.

you first hint says that contract is cold as long as LHO has everything but ♣K.

we have 8 top tricks, 9th can come from hearts, but they could have 3♣, 1♥, 1♠ before.

We must then duck first trick, RHO can't overtake, and LHO is on lead for a low club.

we must duck again and RHO gets on lead, best he can do now is to jam comunications playing a heart that we must duck.

LHO takes it, and now can play ♠A and another Heart, this leaves us with only 8 tricks again (overtaking and discarding ♦A will bring only 8).
--

This didn't work, so let's try something else wich was my first though: keep RHO out lead, win second club, ♦A and play clubs, LHO will have to give you 9 tricks at some point.

[FrancesHinden]

Fluffy, on May 2 2007, 12:40 PM, said:

We must then duck first trick, RHO can't overtake, and LHO is on lead for a low club.

We must indeed. RHO will overtake and switch to a heart.

[Fluffy]

FrancesHinden, on May 2 2007, 12:17 PM, said:

Fluffy, on May 2 2007, 12:40 PM, said:

We must then duck first trick, RHO can't overtake, and LHO is on lead for a low club.

We must indeed. RHO will overtake and switch to a heart.

Ok, I though no pronblem here, but it seems LHO will cash ♠A and trow us in playing a second heart.

We will cash ONLY 5 diamonds (otherwise dummy is squeezed), and endplay RHO with 4th ♥, we make 1♠, 2♥, 5♦, 1♣, they make 1♠, 2♥, 1♣.


If LHO doesn't cash ♠A we can end with 3 tricks to go with ♠K10 and ♣A in dummy.

Only problem is if LHO has 4th heart, then he can make a false squeeze to dummy who will not know LHO's last card because he will discard ♠J & ♣J so he can either have ♣QJx or ♣QJ10x at start. Don't see the difference between ♣2 or ♣8 yet, will think a bit more.

[FrancesHinden]

No difference between the 2 and the 8. It's just more amusing to think that the contract might depend on your analysis of the location of the 2 of clubs at trick 12...

[inquiry]

Ok. I will just ignore the club two and or club 8, probably to my peril.

West has at least 11 hcp, east has the club king, so at most east can also have the spade JACK. I have what looks like 6D, 1C, 1H, and 1S looks like nine. If you win the first club, and unblock diamonds, they can take the club king and lead a heart and you are at risk of losing 3C, 1H and 1S as you have no entry to your 9th trick (the spade king). If win the first club and you don't unblock the diamond ACE, the hand is not so easy either. West wins spade ace, leads a club to the king, and East returns a heart. If you win the ACE you have no entry back to your long diamonds, and if you duck, they might win 3C, 1H and 1S.

So we decide to duck the first club trick. If East wins and shifts to a heart, you duck planning on unblockng the ACE of diamonds on third round of hearts if necessary. So lets assume club queen wins. If WEST continues with a high club or a low club-- I will win the ACE, and exit with a low spade to the queen (leaving the diamond ACE in dummy. East can only get in if clubs are 3-3, in which case I plan on losing 1S, 1H, and 2C. If clubs are 4-2 (either way), They could cash 1S and 3C, but I am in control

Should clubs be 5-1, East will have overtaken the club queen at trick one, and returned a heart. Now the jettison in diamonds still works on heart and heart, as they will ahve to give you aclub or spade later in the hand to go with your 6D and 2H. So I am not sure what difference who has the two makes.

[FrancesHinden]

inquiry, on May 2 2007, 02:30 PM, said:

So we decide to duck the first club trick. If East wins and shifts to a heart, you duck planning on unblockng the ACE of diamonds on third round of hearts if necessary.

That's only 8 tricks: 6 diamonds and two hearts.
Where's your ninth?

[inquiry]

FrancesHinden, on May 2 2007, 08:35 AM, said:

inquiry, on May 2 2007, 02:30 PM, said:

So we decide to duck the first club trick. If East wins and shifts to a heart, you duck planning on unblockng the ACE of diamonds on third round of hearts if necessary.

That's only 8 tricks: 6 diamonds and two hearts.
Where's your ninth?

Well, assuming hearts are no worse than 4-2 the ninth comes from a black suit winner...

I will end up wiht S-Q h-xx D-- C--

and lead the spade queen. West will win the ACE. If he threw away all his cubs and if he had four hearts, he can take a heart, then I get the spade king. If he keep clubs, i will get the club ACE.

I guess your "if I guess right", is that clubs could have been 3-3 all along and no one helped me out (west played the Jack, and kept the 2) and I have to guess which black card west kept when he has 4H and either 4 Clubs or 3 clubs, If the play goes this way, I will guess wrong, because I always do. But I will play WEST for 2434 or 3424 if he continues low at trick 2 in clubs as that would be to have QJT2, for east to drop K8, and for three clubs if he continues high. club (intentionally fixing it so he can not run his own suit).