[SoTired]

jdonn, on Apr 8 2007, 11:09 PM, said:

Please tell me your auction to bid that grand but not bid it if partner lacks the jack of hearts (in which case you are up to a sparkling 34% or so grand with some slight extra chances, you could very generously call it 40%.)

With KQxxx opposite Axxx only an unfinessable 4-0 break kills the grand, which is less than 10%.

[whereagles]

Over an unlimited opener, you either splinter with a VERY WELL DEFINED hand (as in 9-11 or 10-12 hcp, letting opener take charge) or you'll end up with endless discussions of the type "who should have done what?"

Over a limited opener it's another story, but over an unlimited one, unlimited splinters are, in my opinion, technically wrong.

[jdonn]

SoTired, on Apr 9 2007, 04:11 AM, said:

jdonn, on Apr 8 2007, 11:09 PM, said:

Please tell me your auction to bid that grand but not bid it if partner lacks the jack of hearts (in which case you are up to a sparkling 34% or so grand with some slight extra chances, you could very generously call it 40%.)

With KQxxx opposite Axxx only an unfinessable 4-0 break kills the grand, which is less than 10%.

Count the tricks and the entries in the hand I was referring to.

---

You need 2 club ruffs in dummy. Spade lead to ace, diamond to king, club ruff, heart to queen, club ruff.....and you can't finish drawing trumps unless they are 2-2 (40%), plus you need 3-3 or 4-2 diamonds (85%). Same dilemma on a trump lead. If south had the jack of hearts it would be a far more respectable 77% (still far from cold! but pretty good).

This was essentially my whole point all along. You can't just assume you have a grand because partner has KQ of hearts and K of diamonds. You need something else, either club ace, spade king, 6th heart, or the jack of hearts. So all this talk about how I'm missing a grand on so many hands is really missing a grand on extremely few hands, and even many of them it was going to be difficult to bid confidently since partner could be lacking those features I mention.

I am always happy to be proven wrong by some good example hands or something, but sometimes people are so desperate to be right they don't consider the full implications of what they are claiming (not you).

[Impact]

On the original topic it is wrong to splinter with this hand for each of the following reasons in order of importance in my opinion:-

a) you are too strong: a splinter should show so that you can abide by partner's decision: but this hand is driving to at least small slam unless awfully adverse information comes to light;

you have a very good potential source of tricks in your side suit - and the DK is potentially crucial to GS ambitions, so you might as well introduce that now so that partner can value his DK - noting that HKQxxxx DKx and a few C will be an excellent GS regardless of minor black Honours!
c) Partner has no convenient acceptance of the splinter when you hold all the side first round controls - even if you played Last Train 4D, he would be reluctant to try with NO first round controls as it requires too many perfect cards risking 5-level...

d) unless you have specific bids which specify voids, ambiguous splinters are notoriously bad.

regards

[inquiry]

Did I miss it? Am I the only one to suggest a line of play. Figuring out how to play a hand without being biased when you see all four hands is not something I am good at. I wonder if my line (which on this hand makes 13 tricks) is really unintentional double dummy rather than single dummy. Anyone else going to take a stab at play.

[temp3600]

inquiry, on Apr 9 2007, 11:23 PM, said:

Did I miss it? Am I the only one to suggest a line of play. Figuring out how to play a hand without being biased when you see all four hands is not something I am good at. I wonder if my line (which on this hand makes 13 tricks) is really unintentional double dummy rather than single dummy. Anyone else going to take a stab at play.

In the line you described, it is slightly better to take an immediate finesse against East's ♥J after cashing the ♥A. You can then play exactly the same way, setting up the 5th diamond as the 13th trick, and at the end pull East's bare ♥J with the bare ♥K, cash the top clubs, cross to dummy with the ♠A, and cash the good diamond.
Both lines work when East has 5(+) diamonds because he has to follow to the fifth round, but if he had only 4, he could ruff, killing the 13th trick. By taking the early finesse in trumps, you can establish the 5th diamond without giving him a chance to ruff it.

[Apollo81]

jdonn, on Apr 8 2007, 02:06 PM, said:

I actually think it is reasonable to splinter and just bid 6♥ over partner's 4♥. Slam may not always be great, but often will and should just about always have a play (it will rarely be worse than a diamond finesse I believe). And it makes sense to give up on the grand when partner signs off after your splinter. So why not make things simple?

Agree with others that it's ok to start with a different bid on north's hand, but if you splinter on a hand this good you have to be bidding again.

agree