[mike777]

Scoring: IMP

P=(1S)=2D=(4S)
?

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Late night pickup teammatch.

Your call and thinking here?

[mcphee]

Pass, my thinking is, what is there to think about? If partner has a good hand he will dble 4S and then I will even be able to show C as well as D with 4NT.

[inquiry]

I think we are not making 5♦ but that we will not go down a lot. Something like -500 and -800 I would think. I also think they are making 4♠ for -620 to -650. If I bid 5♦, it will not be a disaster UNLESS we can defeat 4♠.

It is difficult to determine total tricks for LOTT on this sped up auction. I usually play partner for a six card minor when he overcalls at the two level, so we probably have a 9 to 10 card fit. Howver, my weak diamonds mean partner may have strong five card suit instead of six. They have an 8 to 10 card fit in spades. Let's say we average 9.5 fit and they 8.5, for a total trump count of 18 (it could be 19 or 20). If this estimate of 18 is right, pass is cleary correct according to LOTT.

My short spade suggest partner is likely to be short in hearts or clubs, unless he overcalled on 3-x-5-x, 2-x-6-x, where x = 2 or 3, or he is 2-2-5-4. When partner is short in either of the suits where I have a queen, the queen is potentially useful on defense but useless on offense. This suggest defending. And when he is not short, then his "balanced" overcall must be based on failry substantial values, and we would rather take or chances defending.

All in all, it seems like a clear pass to me. The rewards when you are right (say -500 versus -620) are nice, but not great at imps. However, the penalty when you are wrong -500 versus +100 when 4♠ goes down are not. This is fairly close, if I was not vulnerable and they were vulnerable, I would probably take the push to 5♦. For one thing, under those conditions, they are more likely to bid 5♠ over 5♦ as they would anticipate a minimal penalty at those conditions.

One last problem with bidding 5♦, it might convince the stronger of the two hands that his partner has a distributional control and help them find a magic 6♠ contract. I would not worry too much about this, but it is at least a concern. Anyway, I would pass at this colors.

[DWM]

Pass.

Why take action with a weak hand over a pre-empt?

[pbleighton]

Pass. I don't even consider bidding here.

Peter

[whereagles]

5♦ for me. Thinking is I rate to make 1 trick on defense. I can hardly believe pard will contribute with 3 tricks to beat 4♠, so I might as well try the save.

[jtfanclub]

whereagles, on Mar 20 2007, 08:27 AM, said:

5♦ for me. Thinking is I rate to make 1 trick on defense. I can hardly believe pard will contribute with 3 tricks to beat 4♠, so I might as well try the save.

Why? Your partner made a 2/1 overcall, vulnerable, across a passed hand. I'm not sure how strong a hand you can have in that situation, but it's strong. A 20 count wouldn't be a shocker, if he's short in hearts.

RHO made a pre-empt, so I don't now how many HCP he has, but it isn't much. Your long clubs should be of some help on defense.

I pass. I'm not sacrificing when I'm not at all sure they're going to make.

[pbleighton]

"I pass. I'm not sacrificing when I'm not at all sure they're going to make."

Exactly.

Peter

[han]

Pass, not a difficult hand. If partner doubles then I will bid 5D (and not 4NT, which should show a greater disparity (word?) between the minors).

[pclayton]

Pass. Bidding 5♦ is for matchpoint freaks. With normal overcalls, we are certainly -500 or -800 against their probable 620.

On the other hand, there is a subset of hands where we beat 4♠ by a trick. Maybe 5♦ is -1 in that case, but I'd rather take my plus. In other cases, 4♠ will be touch and go; maybe we beat it and maybe we don't.

If pard doubles 4♠, I think I'd pull however, since it now feels like its our deal, even though -1 in both contracts seems likely.

[awm]

Something seems sort of inconsistent here. It seems like you have two choices:

(1) Pass, hoping partner can beat this.
(2) Bid 5♦, hoping 4♠ makes (if 4♠ makes, 5♦ is very likely a good sacrifice).

The action that seems very weird is to select pass (hoping partner can set), then when partner doubles (announcing that he thinks 4♠ will go down and basically supporting your initial decision to pass) to bid 5♦.

You're not going to get a lot of good scores this way, since you'll end up defending 4♠ when it makes (and 5♦ was a good sac) and the vast majority of times 4♠ is failing partner will double and you'll run out to 5♦.

I'll go with the direct 5♦ bid, right or wrong. Sometimes even when it's wrong opponents will bid 5♠ for me.

[cherdano]

awm, on Mar 20 2007, 11:22 AM, said:

Something seems sort of inconsistent here. It seems like you have two choices:

(1) Pass, hoping partner can beat this.
(2) Bid 5♦, hoping 4♠ makes (if 4♠ makes, 5♦ is very likely a good sacrifice).

The action that seems very weird is to select pass (hoping partner can set), then when partner doubles (announcing that he thinks 4♠ will go down and basically supporting your initial decision to pass) to bid 5♦.

Partner's double is not a pure penalty double for me. It just shows a very good hand, as good as a 2♦ bid can get. So if he doubles, I am bidding 5♦ since it may make, and we are still not sure to beat 4♠.

[pclayton]

Jlall, on Mar 20 2007, 10:52 AM, said:

Bid a quick 5D, watch them bid an agonized 5S, and ship the +100.

I love it when my opponents bid 5 over 5.

[mikeh]

awm, on Mar 20 2007, 12:22 PM, said:

I'll go with the direct 5♦ bid, right or wrong. Sometimes even when it's wrong opponents will bid 5♠ for me.

This is the key, for me.

If you approach the game on the basis that the opps will always do the right thing under pressure, then you shouldn't bother playing the game.

Nobody knows whose hand it is. Even LHO, if he has a big hand, is going to be worried that maybe he has no ♠ cashers... would it surprise anyone Other than you, since you actually hold the hand ) if the 5♦ bidder were void?

While I doubt that we are making, and I would never perpetrate the pass and bid scenario advocated by several, I am morally certain that no-one else at the table knows exactly what to do either.

But, when bidding for this reason, do it in tempo. If you find that you have broken tempo, pass.

[Edmunte1]

5♦ rates to be a bad sacrifice and 500/800 vs. 620/650 doesn't deserve the risk.
4♠ rates to be usually to be a maker, but we have small defensive chances, especially if partner is short in clubs or has a trump trick. The only real advantage is that opps might bid 5♠ and go down

[mike777]

Great comments all, thank you. If anyone else has anything to add, please do.

[kenberg]

I'll venture a guess that if 4S can be beaten it will be by taking one diamond, one club, and two hearts. How likely? I suppose 4S has a good shot at making.

I doubt they will bid 5S over 5D, I think they will double. I doubt it will go for 800, my guess is 500.

LOTT seems not very useful here, as is often the case. Even if I believe that the total number of tricks equals the total number of trump, I wouldn't want to place a heavy bet on the total number of trump. Maybe 19.

Oops, almost forgot: I pass

[jtfanclub]

kenberg, on Mar 20 2007, 08:54 PM, said:

I'll venture a guess that if 4S can be beaten it will be by taking one diamond, one club, and two hearts.

I'd put even money that partner has a spade trick. We have a singleton, and they're certainly sititng in the right place.

[Apollo81]

The chance that they make 4♠ is approximately 100% IMO, so I'll bid 5♦ since I don't think I will go for more than 500.