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No auction, no nothing, just a "What lead is least likely to blow a trick?"
Leading from Qxx or leading from Kxx?
I figured that leading from Qxx was better, because it needs partner to have the A, K, or J to be safe (barring declarer holding AT facing K9 or some other similar position). Underleading the K needs to find partner with A or Q.
On the other hand, if declarer has AKJ, your Q is now dropping, whereas if you underled the K and declarer has AQJ, your K is still behind AQ.
My first reaction was that if I were trying to be passive, I would tend to lead away from a Q than a K. But now I'm not sure.
Was my above analysis correct? And any ideas about which lead is safer?
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What to lead?
#2
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Posted 2007-February-26, 15:59
goobers, on Feb 26 2007, 11:35 PM, said:
No auction, no nothing, ...............
There is no lead if there is no auction.
goobers, on Feb 26 2007, 11:35 PM, said:
Leading from Qxx or leading from Kxx?
Al
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♠♥♠ BAD bidding may be succesful due to excellent play, but not vice versa. ♦♣♦
Teaching in the BIL TUE 8:00am CET.
Lessons available. For INFO look here: Play bridge with Al
#3
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Posted 2007-February-26, 16:07
I am not excited by this question, but my "gut feeling" is that xx1943 is not correct. If we forget about latter ruffs and deal only with top tricks in the suit....
If you lead from Qxx it can cost a trick if, dummy has Jxx and declarer AKx, or if the opponents have the ten and AK divided between their hands and it forces the jack from partner, exposing you to a finessee.
The lead from the King can cost a trick if dummy has AJx and declarer Qxx (or reverse minor honors). If declearer has ACE, you may always still score your king.
There could be other holdings, but this type of analysis might easily suggest small from Qxx is slightly more risky than small from Kxx.
If you lead from Qxx it can cost a trick if, dummy has Jxx and declarer AKx, or if the opponents have the ten and AK divided between their hands and it forces the jack from partner, exposing you to a finessee.
The lead from the King can cost a trick if dummy has AJx and declarer Qxx (or reverse minor honors). If declearer has ACE, you may always still score your king.
There could be other holdings, but this type of analysis might easily suggest small from Qxx is slightly more risky than small from Kxx.
--Ben--
#4
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Posted 2007-February-26, 16:30
While there is not much to choose between them, and the auction plus the rest of one's hand is more important than any a priori difference, it is my view that the Kxx is safer than the Qxx.
On the whole, the K is more likely to score a trick on the 2nd (or 3rd) round of the suit even after giving away a cheap trick early...
Imagine the A on your right. Say it is AQJ(x)(x). you blow a tempo by leading from the Kxx, but, so long as declarer needs more tricks from the suit or your side has the entries and time to lead through, you end up with the one trick you were entitled to. Contrast that to leading from Qxx into AKJ(x)(x): you ain't ever getting that trick back
There are, of course, many potential scenarios and I am not suggesting that the K is always safe and the Queen always dangerous. But the K is, in a vacuum, safer to lead away from. Bear in mind, however, that there is no such thing as a lead in a vacuum.
On the whole, the K is more likely to score a trick on the 2nd (or 3rd) round of the suit even after giving away a cheap trick early...
Imagine the A on your right. Say it is AQJ(x)(x). you blow a tempo by leading from the Kxx, but, so long as declarer needs more tricks from the suit or your side has the entries and time to lead through, you end up with the one trick you were entitled to. Contrast that to leading from Qxx into AKJ(x)(x): you ain't ever getting that trick back
There are, of course, many potential scenarios and I am not suggesting that the K is always safe and the Queen always dangerous. But the K is, in a vacuum, safer to lead away from. Bear in mind, however, that there is no such thing as a lead in a vacuum.
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
#5
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Posted 2007-February-26, 16:46
Leading low from a King.
If your honor gets lower, you have a higher
risk, that you give declarer and add. costfree
finesse.
With kind regards
Marlowe
If your honor gets lower, you have a higher
risk, that you give declarer and add. costfree
finesse.
With kind regards
Marlowe
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
#6
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Posted 2007-February-27, 12:47
I would say Kxx is safer than Qxx, and Q9xx is safer than Kxx, but I don't know that there's any point to analyzing leads without any context.
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