[jdeegan]

Scoring: MP

P-1♥-5♦-???

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Matchpoints. Decent opponents. Your bid?

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

throw a dice, most likely it wont matter, I choose 5H,
but double will more often lead to a plus score.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[jillybean]

I voted double (before I read Justins respone ) if my partner opened light I'm not sure 5♥ will make.

[Apollo81]

5 over 5 is usually wrong at MPs if you're not sure.

Double.

[inquiry]

Sure we have 9 trumps, but my hand is not even good enough to force to the four level, much less the five level. My fine hearts suggest that partner's opening points must be in the black suits (he can have at most 4 in hearts) and I have black suit values as well. Even if declarer is void in hearts (a reasonable chance), we should win a ♦ and some black tricks. For the defense I will start with diamond ace and after winning the first trick, probably another diamond, but I get to see the dummy before I decide.

[SoTired]

I had a similar hand once, playing with a true world-class partner (been to many Bermuda Bowls). I doubled, lead the ♦A, which dropped my partner's stiff king - 5DX making. My partner was not impressed.

[inquiry]

SoTired, on Feb 22 2007, 09:00 AM, said:

I had a similar hand once, playing with a true world-class partner (been to many Bermuda Bowls). I doubled, lead the ♦A, which dropped my partner's stiff king - 5DX making. My partner was not impressed.

Well, it must be obvious never to lead trumps then... I have no idea what I was thinking.....


(and yes, I still double and lead the ♦ Ace despite your experience)....but after my double, the auction is still not over, but with my heart AQxx holding, I don't really expect partenr to bid).

[jtfanclub]

SoTired, on Feb 22 2007, 09:00 AM, said:

I had a similar hand once, playing with a true world-class partner (been to many Bermuda Bowls). I doubled, lead the ♦A, which dropped my partner's stiff king - 5DX making. My partner was not impressed.

I think it's very possible that they're going to make 5♦. Partner could have as much as:

AKJx
KJxxx
Qx
Qx

and they're still making when declarer turns out to have one card in the majors.

The problem is, I can't think of any case where the opponents can make 5 diamonds where, if the bidding was a little slower to get there, we wouldn't know to bid 5 hearts. So i think pass and X will generate the same 0 when they make it.

So, just X and lead the ace of hearts for me. I may feel silly when the king of hearts shows up in dummy, but I'm betting the dummy won't have an entry to it.

[pclayton]

5♥ was my first reaction.

They may find a save at 6♦.

They might make 5♦.

OTOH, 5♦ x'd might just be par, but my hunch is it isn't.

There's a lot of possibilities here, and this may be one of those hands a 4-0 trump split sinks 5♥.

I doubt at the other tables they are getting a 5♦ call, and will be in a much better position to gauge the auction. So we need to try to get back and guess correctly.

[jdonn]

inquiry, on Feb 21 2007, 08:58 AM, said:

...my hand is not even good enough to force to the four level...

Do you really believe that??

I would bid 5♥ though I admit double could easily work out better. I have always been very uncomfortable doubling the opponents when I have excellent support for partner that hasn't yet been shown.

[kenrexford]

I have no good answer for this problem to add, but I do have a train of consciousness thought here.

I've been thinking recently as to whether a forcing pass line of thinking might be more advantageous than costly after some of these high-level preemptions. The obvious risk is that applying forcing pass thinking to this situation will occasionally result in very bad losing options.

However, it might also open up another level of options.

I wonder how often 1x-5y makes, and how beneficial forcing pass thinking might be here. I have no idea; I'm just wondering. Old school ideas of an opening promising 2 1/2 quick tricks, long abandoned, would seem to lead to a conclusion that an opening bid establishes dominance of the five-level, in a way, such that forcing pass thinking has some theoretical basis. Whether it has practical applicability, and how to use this, is another matter altogether.

Also, as suggested already, this specific 1x-5y auction usually places us at a disadvantage in comparison to other field decisions, such that risk taking might be less problematic, as we are forced into a guess that others might not have anyway.

Any thoughts on this?

[jdonn]

Jlall, on Feb 23 2007, 11:03 PM, said:

jdonn, on Feb 23 2007, 09:52 PM, said:

inquiry, on Feb 21 2007, 08:58 AM, said:

...my hand is not even good enough to force to the four level...

Do you really believe that??

I would bid 5♥ though I admit double could easily work out better. I have always been very uncomfortable doubling the opponents when I have excellent support for partner that hasn't yet been shown.

jdown bidding 5/5 im shocked

Only when I'm balanced partner.