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hand vs competition

#1 User is offline   jmc 

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Posted 2007-February-04, 00:29

Scoring: IMP


RHO is dealer and makes a pass. We begin the bidding with a Precision 1C. LHO bids 2H, a weak jump overcall, and partner bids 3C showing 5+ D 8+ HCP and a game force. Now RHO bids 3H.

We can bid 3S and show our good major, 4D ostensibly setting D and asking controls, or 4H kickback for D. Whats your call?

If we bid 3S, partner will bid 4S. Over our 4NT RKC 1430 p bids 5C and over 5D he bids 6D showing the D king denying the club K and showing the Q of spades. What is your call? What do you estimate the odds are for the grand?

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#2 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2007-February-04, 00:48

Hmm. Isn't 7D cold unless they ruff on the opening lead, or trumps break 4-0 in a way that we can't pick it up? I count 6 spades, 5 diamonds, one club, and I am willing to gamble on a heart ruff. If partner has a heart void, I can still try the club finesse...
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#3 User is offline   jmc 

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Posted 2007-February-04, 00:57

Cherdano, in your answer you forgot p has one key card for spades. This must be the AH. This eliminates your need for the ruff.

jmc
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#4 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2007-February-04, 02:23

Just bid 7 if pard has the K and concentrate on the card play :rolleyes:
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#5 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2007-February-04, 04:42

Don't you have exclusion blacky?
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#6 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2007-February-04, 06:01

If pd has 5D to the K, I am bidding 7D. I don't care what else he has.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
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#7 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2007-February-04, 06:23

Isn't Xcl. BW for minor voids?
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#8 User is offline   EricK 

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Posted 2007-February-04, 07:39

If I understand what you are saying, partner has shown Q, A, and at least Kxxxx.

Unless are 4-0 and we can't pick them up, 7NT is laydown.
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#9 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2007-February-04, 10:54

Apparently partner has the Qx(xx), A??, K(J?)xxx, ???.

Normally, a 4-0 break is 10% or so, however, its higher with two vulnerable preempting opponents, but its imposible to quantify. Still, a finesse gets you home as well, as does the J, 10-9, or a 6th .

There's no need to try 7/7 and depend on the opponents to tell you if there is a void via a Lightner. Just bid 7N.
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#10 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2007-February-04, 13:28

jmc, on Feb 4 2007, 08:57 AM, said:

Cherdano, in your answer you forgot p has one key card for spades. This must be the AH. This eliminates your need for the ruff

Oops sorry, Jonathan. So who likely is it that this can go down? It needs
- partner not to have the J (56%)
- not to have T9 (80%)
- Jxxx off-side
- not K on-side

The last two are somewhat hard to quantify. With hearts, say, 6-3, the a-priori odds for this diamond break are 8.9%. Since the opps seem to have MANY hearts between them, I don't think the bidding changes this by a lot. Lets say it is 15% that LHO is void, and 60% that he has K. Then it is a 95.5% slam. Quite unlucky indeed if, as I assume, you went down.

Arend
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#11 User is offline   Double ! 

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Posted 2007-February-04, 14:11

What is wrong with bidding 3 spades, showing my very good major with good internal structure) at this point followed RKC with spades as the default suit (last naturally bid suit in the partnership) with cue-bidding hearts and then bashing 7D if necessary (OK, lose what, 2 imps?) and having the opps save at 7 hearts as a back-up if the opps continue to interfere with my plan. It's not so much that i want to know if partner has the ace of hearts, but that I want to be able to ask about the spade queen followed by the diamond king (assuming playing specific kings). Hey, if partner shows all three essential cards, anyone for 7NT if the opps sac.? or if playing matchpoints. But I am content to play 7 spades opposite any hand that has the queen of spades and K 5th or better of diamonds. Who knows? Partner might actually be able to support spades: the ability to do so was never denied with the 3 diamond bid.
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#12 User is offline   jmc 

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Posted 2007-February-04, 18:44

Scoring: IMP

p-1c-2h-3c-3h-3s-4h-4s-p-4nt-p-5c-p-5d-p-6d-p-7s


Here are all 4 hands. Partner won the h lead pitching a club. Pulled spades and played a small d towards the K. As the diamonds were 4-0 and rho didnt vover the lead of the 10d, partner fell back on the finesse.

7s-1. This was worth -14 imps. This was imp pairs and only 1 pair was in slam making. Most played diamonds dbld for +500.

I think this grand is so good I'd want to be in it even at swiss teams against a bad team. The diamonds breaking 4-0 is nomaly 10%. We can handle 4-0 with lho. We also make when the club hook is on which is 50-50. I think this is at least a 95% slam. It may be a bit better.

Would you want to be in this against a poor team in a swiss?

jmc
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#13 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2007-February-04, 18:49

jmc, on Feb 5 2007, 03:44 AM, said:

I think this grand is so good I'd want to be in it even at swiss teams against a bad team. The diamonds breaking 4-0 is nomaly 10%. We can handle 4-0 with lho. We also make when the club hook is on which is 50-50. I think this is at least a 95% slam. It may be a bit better.

Would you want to be in this against a poor team in a swiss?

Didn't you say that partner started Diamonds by leading low to the King?

I don't think that you get to credit your team with picking up a 4-0 split when East holds Jxxx
Alderaan delenda est
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#14 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2007-February-04, 18:59

While this is a pretty good slam, consider 7NT. You can pick up the diamonds by playing a high one from AQxx and then finessing whichever way is necessary. The Q can be preserved as a late entry to the fifth diamond and the heart ace if need be.

So while 7 is okay, I think 7 is higher percentage and 7NT best of all (seems cold!).
Adam W. Meyerson
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#15 User is offline   jmc 

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Posted 2007-February-04, 19:10

Thanks awm. Very good point.

jmc
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#16 User is offline   Edmunte1 

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Posted 2007-February-05, 02:32

Knowing that partner has 5 diamonds with K, Q and A i would like being in grand, even against very weak oposition. Simply the slam is too good. 7NT seems the best choice, even if we have an unexpected loser we still can take 6+1+3+3. Next choice would be 7, for circulation matters if the trump is 4-0 and avoiding a ruff.
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