[FrancesHinden]

"Mr Bridge" in the UK sends a marketing magazine to everyone vaguely interested in bridge whose name and address he can find from somewhere. It includes various bridge articles aimed at beginner and intermediate players. This month there is one by Freddie North on safety plays. The write-up suggests that this hand is a very easy example. When I looked at it, I thought it was not particularly easy, and the answer was not at all obvious. What do you think?

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You are in 4♥ on an auction unspecified except that LHO overcalled 1♠. The article doesn't say, but it's probably right to assume that opponents are playing intermediate jump overcalls.

LHO leads the ♠Q, and RHO follows with the 2, standard count.
How do you play the heart suit?

[brianshark]

Spoiler

Right so RHO probably has a singleton ♠ and a ruff looms. The 'obvious' safety play is cash ♥A and lead another trump. But what happens if RHO has Kxx or Kxxx trumps? There's a fair chance he has some points. On average, I'd give him a King and maybe the ♦Q. In which case, your safety play instead of the finesse just blew the otherwise cold 11 tricks.

Edited... right you are gwnn!

[gwnn]

I think you mistyped Brian - the second ♠ should be ♥. Otherwise, I would have written the same

[han]

It's ♥Kxx(x) on the right versus K(x) on the left. The same number of holdings, and if we consider the suit in isolation the former would be more likely. But here we should assume that spades are 6-1 (only way the contract can go down) which probably makes the latter significantly more likely. So I vote for the finesse as the best chance to make the contract, and it also gives a better chance to make overtricks.

[brianshark]

I just checked, assuming a 6-1 break, the finesse works on 72.188% of the layouts, and the safety play works on 57.43% of the layouts. But those odds take no account of points for the overcall.