[Poky]

Scoring: IMP

On dA partner signals odd number of diamonds.

---

4♠ pass pass pass
Lead: ♦A

[FrancesHinden]

I can't have had enough sleep last night, because I cant see myself doing anything other than playing a heart.

It seems a bit of a guess whether declarer is, say, 7123/8122 and we need to set up the CK and a trump trick, or 7222/8221 and we need to set up a heart plus a trump or a club, but the latter needs slightly less from partner and beats the contract more if declarer is, say, 7321.

Alternatively it can just be right to cash the other diamond and wait for two trump tricks, but that also seems less likely.

[Halo]

Agree with Frances and taking out dummy's entry may be essential if there is a ruffing club finesse - declarer 8221.

[jdeegan]

Jlall, on Jan 16 2007, 10:10 AM, said:

I'd play a club just on the basis that declarer's more likely to have a stiff heart than a stiff club.

ditto

[pclayton]

The difference between declarer holding a stiff heart versus a stiff club is pretty nominal.

But a heart pays off to pard holding ♥Kx or a stiff.

[Poky]

Jlall, on Jan 16 2007, 04:10 PM, said:

I'd play a club just on the basis that declarer's more likely to have a stiff heart than a stiff club.

Well done. ♠AKJTxxxx-♥K-♦xx-♣xx it was.

[Gpm_bg]

Will be more easily to deside if your partner show desire, not lenght.
I usually want that with Ace pulling. As he/she throw probably low diamond for showing odd number in diamonds, you may see that as signal for ♣.

[Halo]

I'm almost convinced. But if South is more likely to have two clubs and one heart, is he not by the same token more likely to have x,Kx rather than K,xx in the two suits. In that case his losing diamond goes on the third club.

[pclayton]

The only thing I'm convinced of is that I wish I was playing Obvious Shift here.

[Halo]

Maybe I expressed myself badly.

a) Two trump tricks is not likely.

Singleton K of hearts is not likely

c) Doubleton K of clubs more likely than (xx clubs + K singelton hearts)

d) Club lead is disaster if singleton club or Kx clubs

So even though we are not favourite to take it off, play a heart feels best. I may be wrong - have been when it feels right. But vage generalisation is not a counter argument.

[sathyab]

I tried the exercise of giving declarer a heart holding other than the stiff King and see if a heart switch fares worse than a club switch. I couldn't come up with any scenarios. So I'd switch to a heart and be okay with the result. If you did switch to a heart at the table and were wrong, my sympathies and hope you were not playing with a result-merchant.

[FrancesHinden]

It's a toss-up between which holding is more likely for declarer, together which which holding is more likely for partner: you have to worry about both of them.

It's true that declarer is more likely to have a singleton heart than a singleton club.
But it's also true that he is more likely to have two heart losers than one (7-3-2-1 shape), when we don't need a trump trick as well; while he will never have more than one club loser.

Some of these things are very hard to estimate e.g. the chance of two trump tricks (we need to cash a diamond now) depends so much on opener's pre-empting style.
Some can be measured:

if declarer has 8 spades and 2 diamonds, he is 60% to have a 0 or 1 hearts and only 40% to have 0 or 1 clubs; if he is 7-2 in the pointeds he is 45% to have 0 or 1 hearts and 26% to have 0 or 1 clubs.

So he is about twice as likely to have a doubleton club than a doubleton heart (the difference is greater than I first guessed).

Everything else (relative chance of 7 or 8 spades; relative chance of 1 or 2 trump tricks) seems to be guesswork.

[cherdano]

Jlall, on Jan 17 2007, 10:47 PM, said:

I would also like to note that it's not like every 7321 hand is an auto lose if you don't shift to a heart. It would require specific hand types.

Hmm. Club to the ace, club ruff, diamond up. Do you duck or not?

I suppose you duck and still win against 7321 with one trump loser and two heart losers, or two trump losers and one heart loser.

[cherdano]

FrancesHinden, on Jan 17 2007, 09:27 PM, said:

Some can be measured:

if declarer has 8 spades and 2 diamonds, he is 60% to have a 0 or 1 hearts and only 40% to have 0 or 1 clubs; if he is 7-2 in the pointeds he is 45% to have 0 or 1 hearts and 26% to have 0 or 1 clubs.

So he is about twice as likely to have a doubleton club than a doubleton heart (the difference is greater than I first guessed).

I am confused. I neither quite agree with your percentages above, nor with your conclusion:
Assuming 7-2 in ♠-♦, I get a 35% chance for a singleton or void in hearts, and 16.7% for 0-1 clubs. In other words, 65% chance for at least a doubleton heart, and 83% for at least a doubleton club. That's not even close to twice as likely for the doubleton club.

Ah, I suppose you mean he is twice as likely to have "at least a doubleton club and heart shortness" than "at least a doubleton heart and club shortness"?

Now that makes sense to me. Also, if declarer is 7222, a club is always at least as good as a heart. (If declarer has ♥Kx ♣xx a club is needed, but if he has ♥xx ♣Kx a heart does not help, and if he has ♥xx ♣xx it does not matter.) So I suppose a club is right, which I have to admit surprises me quite a bit.

[sathyab]

Jlall, on Jan 17 2007, 03:47 PM, said:

FrancesHinden, on Jan 17 2007, 02:27 PM, said:

So he is about twice as likely to have a doubleton club than a doubleton heart (the difference is greater than I first guessed).

Interesting, thanks. Intuitively that felt right (thats why I shifted to a club when theres a possible extra hand type where a heart is right) but I had no idea what the math was.

Sathya said:

I tried the exercise of giving declarer a heart holding other than the stiff King and see if a heart switch fares worse than a club switch. I couldn't come up with any scenarios.

??? uhh.. AKJTxxxx x xx xx would be a protypical hand type. There are many of these.

I would also like to note that it's not like every 7321 hand is an auto lose if you don't shift to a heart. It would require specific hand types.

You're right.

I was unduly influenced by the stiff King of hearts. With eight spades to the AKJT, declarer doesn't need the King of hearts to make the hand with a heart shift. I overlooked the fact he can simply ruff, pull two rounds of trumps and establish a Diamond for his club loser.

Playing Obvious Shift doesn't help here on hands where declarer has a stiff heart, as partner would encourage a switch to the obvious shift suit, hearts with KXX as well Kx. It does better than standard methods when partner holds Jxx or Jx, but I find that almost incidental on this hand. The crux of the problem is that you must shift to the side suit where declarer has a possible loser before he can establish a Diamond trick and that seems pretty nearly impossible to do without guessing right. Agreed, that ff declarer does have a stiff, it's more likely in hearts than clubs, but I don't find it compelling enough to give up on hands where declarer has two little hearts.

[FrancesHinden]

cherdano, on Jan 17 2007, 10:51 PM, said:

Ah, I suppose you mean he is twice as likely to have "at least a doubleton club and heart shortness" than "at least a doubleton heart and club shortness"?

Yes. Sorry for lack of clarity.