[inquiry]

It is not clear if guess the mistake is a good iidea or not, but here is another one. Again, this is in the beginner and intermediate forum. This hand is really an very beginner hand.

Scoring: IMP

West North East South

 -     -     Pass  1NT
 Pass  2♦    Pass  2♥
 Pass  3♦    Pass  4♣
 Pass  5♣    Pass  6♥
 Pass  Pass  Pass  

D8 D2 D7 DQ
HK H3 H4 HJ
H2 H5 HQ D5

---

As you consider this hand, keep in mind that you have a sure heart loser after the 4-1 split. So you can not afford a spade loser.

[1eyedjack]

Spoiler

My guess is that he ruffed the Clubs good, when he really needs everything right in Clubs in order to get the Spades away before the opponent with remaining trumps has opportunity to ruff Clubs. So you should be cashing Club King and finessing the Jack, then take a quick pitch of a Spade on the Club Ace, then continue Clubs pitching your second Spade. If oppo ruffs fourth Club it is a trick for a trick.

I find the auction a bit strange. 4C to me would agree Diamonds (would agree Hearts by way of 3H). Still, did not end in a bad spot.

[goobers]

You don't have a sure heart loser if you cash ♥K first, right? I think cashing the ♥K first is the safety play to guard against West having J10xx. If East has J10xx or either hand has J109x, then it's hopeless. Still, even if you cash the ♥K first and see the ♥J drop, does restricted choice apply?

This slam is impossible if you misguess trumps. They'll always get a spade and a heart.

[jmc]

Goobers, you are incorect. Read the response above yours by highlighting the whole post. The slam can always be made on the current layout.

jmc

[goobers]

Oh right, I see it now.

Haha, it took me a while to figure out how to read it.

Sorry for my bad post.

[cherdano]

Are we supposed to guess a mistake that has happened already, or guess a mistake to come?

I see two actions I disagree with - the 4♣ bid, and the lead (I don't like leading the suit of their double fit for a possible ruff with a natural trump trick).

[inquiry]

cherdano, on Jan 8 2007, 06:03 PM, said:

Are we supposed to guess a mistake that has happened already, or guess a mistake to come?

I see two actions I disagree with - the 4♣ bid, and the lead (I don't like leading the suit of their double fit for a possible ruff with a natural trump trick).

The purpose of these are to guess the mistake made during the play. On the first one (GMT 001 if we were to number it) was the player cut his communication so that when the heart finessee worked, he had no chance to repeat it (of course a squeeze would have worked too, but to get the finessee right and still go down was unfortunate).

On this hand, the south ALMOST gets it right, but then at the last minute makes a rookie error. Like the first hand in this series the point of the exercise was to find some basic bridge concept (not as basic as a finessee) that beginners/intermediates might have overlooked.

[awm]

Restricted choice doesn't exactly apply. Suppose we have:

AQ764

K82

We start with the king and LHO plays the 3, RHO following with the jack. Now we continue a heart towards dummy and LHO follows with the 5. All of the following are possible positions:

53 JT9
T53 J9
953 JT
T953 J

Restricted choice says that in the first position, RHO might've played the ten or nine instead of the jack. In the second position RHO might've played the nine. In the third position RHO might've played the ten. So this makes each of the first three positions less likely than the fourth position, where RHO was forced to play the jack (restricted choice).

So the chance of the first position is a bit more than 1/3 the chance of singleton jack, and the chance of each of the second and third positions a bit more than 1/2 the chance of singleton jack (assuming RHO plays a random card from these holdings, which he may as well). But if you add these up, the odds of one of the first three positions is still greater than the odds of singleton jack.

In any case, the "failure to pick up the 4-1 heart break for no losers" is not declarer's mistake (except double-dummy).

[inquiry]

awm, on Jan 8 2007, 06:23 PM, said:

In any case, the "failure to pick up the 4-1 heart break for no losers" is not declarer's mistake (except double-dummy).

Adam is correct, because after missing the double finesse in hearts as shown at trick 3, declarer can still make this hand, and didn't.