[Walddk]

Scoring: IMP

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This hand from the Camrose Trophy in England over the weekend created some debate among the commentators as well as the players after the session.

You have arrived in 6NT after, effectively, 2NT - 6NT. West leads ♠2 (3rd/5th), you insert the 9 from dummy and RHO follows with the 4 (count presumably). Take over please. How do you proceed from here?

Roland

[brianshark]

Don't think I saw this hand.

At a quick glance, I think I'd cash club Ace, then unless Q or T drops, lead small to the J. Assuming I only get 4 club tricks, depending on how clubs break, and what I learn of the distribution in the meantime, I either fall back on a heart finesse, or a spade/heart squeeze.

[FrancesHinden]

It looks from the lead as if LHO has 10xxxx and RHO Qxx but this is not at all definite. 10xx is a rather less attractive lead on this auction, particularly when LHO has some number of low diamonds to lead instead.

I need to play the club suit for one loser and gain another trick (effectively via the heart finesse; a major suit squeeze will pick up the same holding); or play clubs for 5 tricks.

The best way to play clubs for 5 tricks is to cash the AK, assuming the queen on the first round is from Q10 doubleton (more likely than singleton Q and a very standard false card). This picks up all Q doubletons. Taking a double finesse (run the jack, low to the 8) picks up all Q10s onside + singleton 10 offside, which is very very fractionally less good. If we believe spades are 5-3, that makes the double finesse a clear loser.

The best play for 4 tricks is another matter - I believe it is ace, low towards the Jack - which only fails on 5-0 breaks.

Playing clubs from the top we lose out to any Q10xx, or about 17% of hands, but we gain on 50% of the 27% of hands when clubs played for 5 tricks and the heart finesse was wrong. [edit: we are also OK when we have 4 heart tricks as we are in dummy at this point] This makes the difference between the two lines tiny.


What did Mr Rosenberg say? As you mentioned at one point online, we'll believe his answer.

[Walddk]

Jlall, on Jan 9 2007, 05:31 PM, said:

If the jack of clubs loses to RHO's queen he may not work out to fire back a heart from the KJ and QTxx of clubs, but if he does then nice play I will go down because I'm putting in the queen.

That's the problem, isn't it? When a heart comes back, you don't know if clubs come in for 4 tricks. If they don't, you need a double finesse in hearts, but you can't test clubs now.

David Greenwood forwarded the hand to Michael Rosenberg for analysis. He replied already, and I'll let you know what he came up with. But not before others have had the chance to analyse.

Roland

[FrancesHinden]

Jlall, on Jan 9 2007, 03:31 PM, said:

The normal percentage play in clubs for five tricks is to run the jack of clubs and float it.

Confident?

[Halo]

I'll play Ace of clubs and then a club to the Jack, to make four club tricks.

If East has Queen of spades there is a showup or I'm off, otherwise I'll play whoever had most hearts to hold the King.

[Walddk]

FrancesHinden, on Jan 9 2007, 05:38 PM, said:

Jlall, on Jan 9 2007, 03:31 PM, said:

The normal percentage play in clubs for five tricks is to run the jack of clubs and float it.

Confident?

Cashing AK is best for 5 tricks (30-26). Part of Michael's analysis by the way. I am sure he knows all that by heart.

Roland

[mikeh]

I did a long attempt to calculate the odds of the two apparent (to me) lines: cash the AK♣ or safety play the suit. There are all kinds of permutations, depending on who plays what to trick 2.... the long and the short of it is that as best as I can guessestimate, playing to take 5 ♣ tricks affords a tiny, tiny edge...along the lines of 1%. I could go into detail, but would likely only embarrass myself when we see Rosenberg's answer The only thing he and I have in common, in terms of analytical ability, is our first name

[FrancesHinden]

Mike and I agree that the difference is tiny... so the worst thing Rosenberg could say is that it's obvious!

p.s. he's a Scot. He should have been playing for Scotland, not ratted off to the US. What's the attraction of the USA, other than bags of money, playing with Zia and rather fewer midges?

[mikeh]

To add to the debate: I think the edge for the top ♣ approach is so small, that it is reversed if we change the ♣8 to the 7 the reason being that when we cash the AK, and the 10 has appeared singleton, we can unblock the J and drive out the Q, reverting to the safety play line based on 4 ♣ tricks, whereas if the 10 is stiff on our left, we cannot unblock the J faced with rho's Q8xx.. and he ducks if we play a 3rd round to our J. That tiny possibility seems to me to change the preferred line. If the 10 is stiff on our left, we can unblock, take the needed ♥ hook and lead towards 97x through Q8.

[Walddk]

FrancesHinden, on Jan 9 2007, 07:47 PM, said:

p.s. he's a Scot. He should have been playing for Scotland, not ratted off to the US. What's the attraction of the USA, other than bags of money, playing with Zia and rather fewer midges?

Debbie. She is indeed attractive!

Roland

[keylime]

Mike and co.,

Please tell me what I'm about to say is really foolish and why...

If LHO has 5-3-x-x with both heart honors, isn't playing the AK of clubs potentially inferior to trying for five club winners? Surely RHO isn't going to play another spade at this point with no heart honors.

If I feel as if the classic double finesse is working here, wouldn't I cash out diamonds first to get some resemblance of inferential count since it's likely that LHO led 5th best spade? Therefore I'm going to assume both heart honors are off.

I understand the catering to RHO being 4-4 in hearts/clubs but I am the gut feeling you gotta play clubs for 5 winners here.

[mikeh]

keylime, on Jan 9 2007, 01:15 PM, said:

Mike and co.,

Please tell me what I'm about to say is really foolish and why...

If LHO has 5-3-x-x with both heart honors, isn't playing the AK of clubs potentially inferior to trying for five club winners? Surely RHO isn't going to play another spade at this point with no heart honors.

The point is that the best way to play for 5 ♣ winners is to cash the AK... see the earlier posts by Frances and Roland.


If RHO holds Qxx of ♣, and no ♥K, you are down. So I wouldn't worry about that holding: focus on holdings on which you can make.

It seems to me that there the holdings on which playing the AK♣ (or starting with that intention, subject to change on some low-frequency lies of the ♣ suit) leads to a make are, by a miniscule margin, more common than those on which playing the ♣ A or K, and then (again subject to change depending on what cards we see under this trick) planning to lead low to the J, prevails.

The reason that the percentages are (for me) difficult to work with is precisely that you may start with one intention and then change horses in mid-stream due to the appearance of an honour at trick 2... I am not going to take the time to describe all of the permutations... it takes longer to type it than it does to think it

[awm]

How about starting with a club to the ace, then take the heart finesse?

If the heart finesse is off, we need five club tricks. There was virtually no way to make without five club tricks (okay maybe a squeeze if LHO underlead the ♠Q, which seems doubtful). The best way to five club tricks is cashing the ace-king, and when we win LHO's return we will cash the other club.

If the heart finesse is on, we need only four club tricks. The best way to four club tricks involves leading to the jack, but our entries are messed up for that now. On the other hand, we can still let the jack of clubs ride the second round (even if covered). This loses only to ♣QTxx on declarer's right, slightly inferior to "club to the ace club to the jack" but still much better than cashing the top two clubs right off (which also loses to ♣QTxx on declarer's left).

[pclayton]

Others haven't specifically said this, but the theme to the hand is avoidance combined with playing the club suit optimally.

By the way, I show that you can make 5 tricks in clubs 31 1/4% of the time (10 cases out of 32) by laying down the AK, although you have to guess if LHO is f/c from QT. There are some interesting possibilities if East drops the 10 as well.

Double hooking works 7 times (includes pinning the stiff 10) or 25%, since you can't pick up Q=T=7=x=x for 5 tricks (er, you can - edited).

But the main reason is to lose a trick to LHO early to avoid the heart through.

Assuming LHO has the ♠Q, we'll have a guess at T12 on a squeeze / finesse.

[Walddk]

Enter Michael Rosenberg ...

This would be pretty tough at the table. Here's a quick answer. Let's look at some lines:

1) Safety play clubs. Basically needs H finesse - obviously we can do better.

2) Club to A and H to Q. If ♥Q loses then try to drop Qx of clubs. If ♥Q wins then ♣J makes unless E has Q10xx (no triple squeeze against E possible).

3) Run ♣J. If loses, finesse ♥Q. If covered then H to Q, and if that loses then C to 9. If ♣J wins.....?

Some other thoughts before analysis:

If C to A produces Q from W, cannot assume stiff Q (any decent W plays Q from Q10 doubleton).

West appears not to have D length based on lead (probably led from ♠10 - why if 3+ small D?), so more attractive to play him for club length.

Line 4) creates most problems for everyone. Can W cover with Qxx (if he does you can be pretty sure he has ♥K)? Will he even cover from Q10x (you could have Jxxxx, and presumably have already guessed suit)? With Q10xx, he would want to cover if you are going to finesse 9 if he ducks, but are you? Usually to lead J you would have Jx, in which case probably not too relevant.

The strict percentage play for 5 tricks is AK, not ♣J (about 30-26). But it is tempting to stick it out there, especially with the lead inference. That's what I would do in practice, I think.

Exit Michael Rosenberg.

.....

I will give you the complete layout some time Wednesday. In the meantime, feel free to comment on Michael's thoughts.

Roland

[cherdano]

awm, on Jan 9 2007, 09:09 PM, said:

How about starting with a club to the ace, then take the heart finesse?

If the heart finesse is off, we need five club tricks. There was virtually no way to make without five club tricks (okay maybe a squeeze if LHO underlead the ♠Q, which seems doubtful). The best way to five club tricks is cashing the ace-king, and when we win LHO's return we will cash the other club.

If the heart finesse is on, we need only four club tricks. The best way to four club tricks involves leading to the jack, but our entries are messed up for that now. On the other hand, we can still let the jack of clubs ride the second round (even if covered). This loses only to ♣QTxx on declarer's right, slightly inferior to "club to the ace club to the jack" but still much better than cashing the top two clubs right off (which also loses to ♣QTxx on declarer's left).

This seems better than cashing ♣AK, but only fractionally so.
It wins when LHO has ♣QTxx, ♥K is on but ♥J is off. It loses when RHO has QTxx and ♥KJ. This first case is slightly more likely.

I suppose Adam's line is best doubly dummy, but running the ♣J may well work best in practice (well definitely when I am LHO).

[Walddk]

Scoring: IMP

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They were in slam at all six tables, either 6♣ or 6NT. Some made 12 tricks, some all 13.

In the Scotland vs. England match (6NT) both declarers advanced ♣J at trick 2. Jason Hackett got a spade return and a show-up squeeze materialised. John Armstrong switched to a heart and the Scottish declarer had to rely on the heart finesse. Flat board.

Roland