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What is the percentage line?

#1 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2007-January-10, 04:11

Bidding went:
1! - 2! - pass! - pass
3 - pass - 4 - pass
pass - pass

1 is 15+HCP any
2 shows 4+ and a Major (also 4+ card)
Partner's pass was followed by saying "oops", which we didn't use (otherwise I'll blast to game). He wanted to double :o

LHO leads A. You see

Scoring: MP

West leads A, RHO plays 2 (normal count and attitude, but he's known to falsecard now and then so you can't always count on his signals)


- What is the best line (% wise) of play in MP?
- What is the best line (% wise) of play in imps?

There are imo 2 possibilities: either you play low and hope to get that Q for a discard, or you drop K under the Ace to create another entry to catch 0-3.
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Posted 2007-January-10, 06:21

i guess, it's very important ,the attitude of opps will be hint, hardly since 2 overcall.
so, this is the best line suggesting by me ,remain king to pitch with the 3rd entry.



regards 000002
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Posted 2007-January-10, 10:21

MPs: play low. Take switch, finesse spade, cash K, play A, enter dummy with last spade to take club pitch. 11 tricks if it goes well.

IMPs: can't come up with anything better than the MP line.
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Posted 2007-January-10, 11:17

In either form of scoring, thank your lucky stars that you didn't receive a club lead (making the contract dependent on finding the spade K onside or picking up the stiff K offside).

The percentage play is to play for 2-1 spades (78%) vs. 3-0 onside (1/2 of 22%=11.0%).

Clearly playing for spades to be 2-1 is a 7-1 favorite, as opposed to creating two entries to dummy to finesse spades twice, regardless of the method of scoring.
Is the word "pass" not in your vocabulary?
So many experts, not enough X cards.
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Posted 2007-January-14, 03:17

Ok, without any information it's clear that playing for 2-1 and a discard on Q is percentage play. However I think the odds have changed. Why does LHO lead A? We know he has at least 4 and at least 4. With AJxx it's a rather unusual lead, isn't it?
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