[pclayton]

Same finals match. You play 4♠:

Scoring: IMP

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Pard opens 1♦, RHO overcalls 1♥ and you bid 1♠, 2♠, 4♠.

The opening lead is the ♥2, 3, 10, Ace.

You play the ♠2 to the K (RHO following with the 8) and hook the club, which loses to the King. LHO follows with the ♥4, J winning. RHO now exits with a low diamond. The position is now:

Scoring: IMP

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You've lost 2 tricks so far.

How do you continue? By the way, do you agree with the plays up to this point?

[mikeh]

I wish, at this point, that I had led the ♠10 (or the 9) to dummy at trick 2. Then I would be leading the ♥Q to ruff away the K and playing A and a low ♠, hooking LHO out of Jxxx of the suit broke as the play of the 8 hints.

Was the small ♠ at trick 2 an error? Tough call. If LHO holds J8xx then (unless we somehow ran the spade spot) we'd be going down once the ♣ hook lost. But when he holds Jxxx, we are going down when the ♣ hook loses unless ♦ are 3-3.

J8xx is twice as probable as Jxxx, but ♦ will be 4-2 significantly more often than they are 3-3, especially once we factor in 3-4♥ and 4-1♠.

As it is, we did not make what now looks as if it would have been the effective play in trump, and we must decide whether to play trump to be 3-2 or ♦ to be 3-3.

If trump are 3-2 the play is trivial: we do not even need to set up the ♥8. If trump are 4-1, we need ♦ to be 3-3 (or RHO to be an improbable 1=4=2=6).

I am going to play a trump to the A, because if both follow, I claim. When RHO shows out, I play on ♦s.... if they are 3-3, the opps are dead.