[mike777]

Scoring: IMP

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P=P= (1H) =1S
(2H)=4S=(5H)=?

You expect 4S to be weakish and that this partner would often cuebid with a good hand.

What is your thought process this time?

[Walddk]

Double and take the money. If we can make 5♠ (I doubt it), we have enough compensation (likely at least 500) by doubling. The only scenario where double might be wrong is when partner's shape is 5-1-5-2.

Roland

[pbleighton]

Double.

Peter

[mcphee]

Seems to be dble of 5H is the reccomended action. When they make it too bad.

[mikeh]

Jlall, on Dec 1 2006, 01:13 PM, said:

at least 500? wow. I would be happy just to beat it. Pass for me and I expect them making 5 is far more likely than beating them 2 (though down 1 is most likely). They are bidding 5H for a reason, obviously they have 0-1 spades and likely they have a second suit or a ton of hearts.

agreed..... otoh, I probably collect more undoubled undertricks than most

[pclayton]

I'm not counting on pard for any defense. I hope the 4♠ pushed the opponents to an unmakable spot, I'll tap the table.

My guess is both 4♠ and 5♥ are -1.

[Foxx]

It sounds like everyone else at the table has distribution, but I have too many doubleton queens to bid. Still, a pass is too pessimistic when I'm looking at 5 cards that could potentially win tricks on defense, in my own hand.

Whack 'em, noting that we won't lose as much when they're making than we will gain if they're down more than one.

[neilkaz]

I find this to be a very tough decision ! I am at the top of my range for an overcall, but PD's jump to game isn't based on a lot of defence. 4♠ was a favorite to make, IMHO, but 5♠ rates to get whacked, and I really cannot see where I can make it much more than 10% of the time if PD cannot bid it later in pass out seat. Thus, bidding 5♠ won't be my call and I would really hate it if is goes down 2 doubled.

Can they make 5♥ ? I think there's a fair chance if opener has a distibrutional moose of a hand since I may not cash 3 tricks and we may not get a trick in ♣, but I think we are favorites to beat 5♥ and doubling and leading the ace of ♦ to get PD's signal and look at dummy, really doesn't seem to aid declarer in making 5♥x.

Lets say they make it doubled 33% of the time and that costs us 5 imps (I don't know how BBO does fractional imps). We set it 2 tricks 10% of the time, gaining 7 imps and we set it 1 trick the other 57% gaining 3 imps.

Completing this cost/benefit analysis (I should have been an accountant .. NOT) we gain 2.41 imps from doubling and setting and lose 1.65 imps from doubling and having them make for a net gain of about 3/4 of an IMP.

On balance it looks like we should double, but I neglected the rare cases where opener redoubles (leaving us with a big guess) or when somehow they have great distr. and make an OT, and when on our best day the 5♥ bid was awful and we set it 3. I have very slight fears of the XX and doubling gives up precious little info to declarer so I think we gain slightly (not the full calc 3/4 IMP) from doubling.

If I pass, PD cannot know that I have the top of my overcall so he is unlikely to double and perhaps he has Kxxxxx,x,xxxx,xx and bids 5♠ which should be set 2 doubled which isn't as bad a 5♥ making unless we are able to cash 3 tricks.

OK I double ..and if it turns out that my assessments are wrong and doubling rates to lose a fraction of an IMP, so be it since I really don't want opps taking free shots at bidding to the 5 level over games I expect to make, and if I shut PD out of bidding when 5♠ was a a good call by him, I appologize.

Still a tough decision, and by no means would I criticize PD here. .. neilkaz ..

[helene_t]

Dbl. Could be the jackpot if partner is short in diamonds. So I'm willing to risk a make some 35% of the times.

[Robert]

Hi everyone

If the other pair is nuts, double would be very good most of the time.

If they really have the hands to bid at the five level(vul.), they likely have a club suit(often headed by the AK) If they hold a two suiter, a stiff diamond or spade void should not be a surprise.

If the other pair normally goes down two vul. at your table, could I please have their address. I will be starting a money game and they surely will be invited to attend.

Do all(or most?) of the doublers intend to sit for a XX by the pair that did bid 5Hs?

Regards,
Robert

[the hog]

Pass, and for me this is an easy decision. I would not be at all surprised if all we make are the AK of D. If it goes off, it will be only 1 off at best, so doubling is far too dangerous.

[Codo]

I would X
I would sit the XX.
Yes it is possible, that all we make is the AK of ♦. But if this is the case, we did not loose many imps.

[mike777]

I lead the A of D and held East to 13 tricks.
East was:
7...AKT653...void....K76543

[the hog]

I wonder if some of the doublers will now argue that their double was a striped tailed ape!

[neilkaz]

The_Hog, on Dec 4 2006, 08:16 PM, said:

I wonder if some of the doublers will now argue that their double was a striped tailed ape!

OK my cost/benefit analysis was COSTLY

[Robert]

Hi everyone

I forgot that a side bonus of doubling them might be to stop them from bidding this hand to slam.

Regards,
Robert

[Codo]

Oh well, my double did not work because my opponent looked at a 1606 hand? Really bad luck. Does this proof that my double was wrong? No.

[Free]

Double

[Free]

Walddk, on Dec 1 2006, 06:26 PM, said:

Double and take the money. If we can make 5♠ (I doubt it), we have enough compensation (likely at least 500) by doubling. The only scenario where double might be wrong is when partner's shape is 5-1-5-2.

Roland

Wouldn't partner make a fit jump with such shape?