[microcap]

Playing in a rubber game, you declare 6♠ with no bids from opps and and opening small ♣ lead.

You have lots of choices---what is the best/safest line to 12 tricks?

Scoring: Rubber

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Thanks in advance...

[FrancesHinden]

There's a very simple line:

Discard a heart on the ace of clubs, A, Q of trumps then draw them ending in hand and take the diamond finesse. Eventually you will discard another heart on the king of clubs. This line needs spades 3-2 or singleton J or 10 on your left, or the diamond finesse. I make that 85% (taking into account that if LHO has 4 spades, the diamond finesse is more likely to be wrong).

Here's a better one:

Discard a diamond on a top club.
Ace of hearts, heart ruff low.
3 rounds of spades (paying out to singleton J/10 as mandataory false card) discarding a diamond from dummy
If spades have broken 3-2 continue with top hearts; if they break 4-3 you have an overtrick if they don't take a diamond finesse for the overtrick.

If spades have broken 4-1 continue with top hearts; if they break 4-3 you are still cold (discarding the other diamond on the other top club) whilst if they don't break you have another choice of lines - the diamond finesse is simple but alternatively if RHO has the long spade you can continue with a 4th round of spades and there are some squeeze possibilities. These are a bit obscure, so let's say this line needs spades 3-2, or spades 4-1 plus either hearts 4-3 or hearts 5-2 plus the diamond finesse. I make that about 93%.

Deep Finesse can definitely do better, because there are various 6-1 heart breaks or 5-0 spade breaks we can pick up. But let's start with this line and see who can improve on it!

[Fluffy]

I didn't find anything better than ruff a ♥ in dummy

[HeartA]

Fluffy, on Dec 5 2006, 09:23 AM, said:

I didn't find anything better than ruff a ♥ in dummy

ditto. I could improve the chance by drawing at least one round of trumps (in case stiff H+stiff S). It fails only if H 5-1 AND S 4-1.

[Halo]

Ace of clubs (throw a diamond), A and Q of spades: no point in giving up the 5/6% when West has singleton J or 10 of spades.

Spades don't split, heart to the Ace and ruff a heart, ruff a club, third spade and play hearts. Still got the diamond finesse available.