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A hand I played last night in my local club. I play 6C and I get a club lead:
AQ9863
86
K4
962
-
AQ1075
AQ7
AKQJ10
So I start playing the percentage play: goal is to discard a heart on DQ, ruff 2 hearts and discard another heart (in my hand this time) on SA, losing only 1 heart unless they are 3-3 divided when I'd make +1.
I play DK, DA and DQ and east ruffs! Change of plan... I overruff, and go for the Heart finesse. Hearts now have to be 3-3 and the King in front, or maybe 4-2 with the jack falling. Bam! HK in east and another club. I had to lose only 1 heart anymore, because they were 3-3 divided... I went one down. Even if I didn't overruff, I went down, because east had another trump.
There was a winning play: start directly with HA and a small heart, because I have to ruff only one (3-3 divided) heart and then I have 12 tricks.
This hand is a typical example of the fact that percentages are not always right!
Would you have played my way, or the winning way?
Free
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Percentages? No way!
#1
- mmm Duvel
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Posted 2003-December-13, 06:59
"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe
#2
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Posted 2003-December-13, 08:26
i think (at 6C) i'd lead HA, diamond to king, toss a heart on SA, low heart toward HQ/10, covering whatever east played (if i can).. sometimes east gets antsy and plays the HK if he holds it, sometimes west has K doubleton, but always i avoid a guess..
i have no idea if the percentages favor this or some other play
i have no idea if the percentages favor this or some other play
"Paul Krugman is a stupid person's idea of what a smart person sounds like." Newt Gingrich (paraphrased)
#3
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Posted 2003-December-26, 16:58
Quote
A hand I played last night in my local club. I play 6C and I get a club lead:
AQ9863
86
K4
962
-
AQ1075
AQ7
AKQJ10
So I start playing the percentage play: goal is to discard a heart on DQ, ruff 2 hearts and discard another heart (in my hand this time) on SA, losing only 1 heart unless they are 3-3 divided when I'd make +1.
I play DK, DA and DQ and east ruffs! Change of plan... I overruff, and go for the Heart finesse. Hearts now have to be 3-3 and the King in front, or maybe 4-2 with the jack falling. Bam! HK in east and another club. I had to lose only 1 heart anymore, because they were 3-3 divided... I went one down. Even if I didn't overruff, I went down, because east had another trump.
There was a winning play: start directly with HA and a small heart, because I have to ruff only one (3-3 divided) heart and then I have 12 tricks.
This hand is a typical example of the fact that percentages are not always right!
Would you have played my way, or the winning way?
Free
AQ9863
86
K4
962
-
AQ1075
AQ7
AKQJ10
So I start playing the percentage play: goal is to discard a heart on DQ, ruff 2 hearts and discard another heart (in my hand this time) on SA, losing only 1 heart unless they are 3-3 divided when I'd make +1.
I play DK, DA and DQ and east ruffs! Change of plan... I overruff, and go for the Heart finesse. Hearts now have to be 3-3 and the King in front, or maybe 4-2 with the jack falling. Bam! HK in east and another club. I had to lose only 1 heart anymore, because they were 3-3 divided... I went one down. Even if I didn't overruff, I went down, because east had another trump.
There was a winning play: start directly with HA and a small heart, because I have to ruff only one (3-3 divided) heart and then I have 12 tricks.
This hand is a typical example of the fact that percentages are not always right!
Would you have played my way, or the winning way?
Free
Unless there is a 100% play there is always a change that r percentage play isn't working
That's why it is called % play hehehe But I would have played Heart Ace and go to dummy with the Di K and play a heart up. Maybe not best % play but that's what my feeling tells me to do. I have gone down before and I am sure I will go down again hehehe.
Mike ;D
“If there is dissatisfaction with the status quo, good. If there is ferment,
so much the better. If there is restlessness, I am pleased. Then let there
be ideas, and hard thought, and hard work.”
so much the better. If there is restlessness, I am pleased. Then let there
be ideas, and hard thought, and hard work.”
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