[mikestar]

mikeh, on Nov 1 2006, 08:41 PM, said:

mikestar, on Nov 1 2006, 03:25 PM, said:

Remember also that opener with 5-5 and invitational values will take the agressive view and force with 3♥ at least half the time--this makes the probabilty that opener has the hand you need even smaller.

Not if he is a good player.

One could argue that a "good player" wouldn't be playing an unlimited 2♥ rebid in the first place.

But given the system with a 5-5 hand that is too good for 2♥ (=partner will have to pass a fair number of hands where we have game) and not good enough for 3♥(=partner will be forced to a fair number of unmakeable games), are you saying that good players take the conservative view all or most of the time? If you are saying that my 50% figure is wrong and the true figure is say 30-40% we are not really in disagreement--my argument still holds though not quite as strongly.

If your are saying the true figure is 0-10% then we are in serious disagreement.

[whereagles]

bid_em_up, on Nov 1 2006, 06:52 PM, said:

1. You forgot about:
1S-1N-2H-2S-4S  probably not that great even though it may make, partner was/is expecting at least 2 spades in your hand.

2. or
1S-1N-2H-2S-3m-4m-4S-?  where partner was just bidding 3m as a forcing bid.

3. Given that partners likely shape and/values are 11-14/15 and 5-4-3-1 or 5-4-2-2, it is probably best just to pass 2H.

4. The only time taking a false preference to 2S will win is if partner is 5-5 in the majors, by giving him a chance to bid 3H, imo.  The rest are just illusions, imo.

1. Maybe you're used to preferences always showing 2 cards. I usually take into consideration that pard may have a 1-3 and have no better bid.

2. "Just bidding 3m as a forcing bid" seems like a good way to get into an expensive misunderstanding, which is definitely what'll happen if you try that too often. I prefer 3m as natural and invitational.

3. Well, since I have 2 aces I think there's a chance pard will make 2♠. I'd pass if I had an ace less, as I said. 2♠ caters for the case when spades play better than hearts and for every hand where pard is strong enough for one final game try.

4. Illusions? I don't think so, but ok. Besides, passing 2♥ looks like masterminding to me. It's gambling that 9 hcp won't produce a game opposite a possible 16-17 and that's something the weak hand is not qualified to do. If you wanna mastermind, do it with the strong hand.

[HeartA]

Quote

1. Maybe you're used to preferences always showing 2 cards. I usually take into consideration that pard may have a 1-3 and have no better bid.

Used to? How many players out there show preference with ONE card over 3? If you frequently do that, how would your pd know you have real support?

Quote

2. "Just bidding 3m as a forcing bid" seems like a good way to get into an expensive misunderstanding, which is definitely what'll happen if you try that too often. I prefer 3m as natural and invitational.

No objection.

Quote

3. Well, since I have 2 aces I think there's a chance pard will make 2♠. I'd pass if I had an ace less, as I said. 2♠ caters for the case when spades play better than hearts and for every hand where pard is strong enough for one final game try.

There are no system or a bidding that can cater ALL possibilities. When we choose a bid over another, we are trying to cover the higher possibility. I don't think the chance is high (I bet it less than 5%) that 2S plays better than 2H.

If I really don't want to miss a possible game (pd holds 5-5 majors), I can bid 2NT.

Quote

4. Illusions? I don't think so, but ok. Besides, passing 2♥ looks like masterminding to me. It's gambling that 9 hcp won't produce a game opposite a possible 16-17 and that's something the weak hand is not qualified to do. If you wanna mastermind, do it with the strong hand.

Again, we are talking about possibilities here. What is the chance pd has 16-17 HCP? And even if he holds 16-17, do we really have game given that pd is not good enough to rebid 3H?

[keylime]

I'm a passer too.

1. Playing a 5-1, when a trump lead is hitting the table likely (and it might be doubled to boot) is punishing pard.

2. What's wrong with a 4-3 Moysian at the 2 level? We've hit a reasonable fit.

3. The element of surprise: what happens if the opps balance back in? Oh the joy you'll have. Give the opps rope, and some will take it.

[cherdano]

mikestar, on Nov 1 2006, 11:01 PM, said:

mikeh, on Nov 1 2006, 08:41 PM, said:

mikestar, on Nov 1 2006, 03:25 PM, said:

Remember also that opener with 5-5 and invitational values will take the agressive view and force with 3♥ at least half the time--this makes the probabilty that opener has the hand you need even smaller.

Not if he is a good player.

One could argue that a "good player" wouldn't be playing an unlimited 2♥ rebid in the first place.

But given the system with a 5-5 hand that is too good for 2♥ (=partner will have to pass a fair number of hands where we have game) and not good enough for 3♥(=partner will be forced to a fair number of unmakeable games), are you saying that good players take the conservative view all or most of the time? If you are saying that my 50% figure is wrong and the true figure is say 30-40% we are not really in disagreement--my argument still holds though not quite as strongly.

If your are saying the true figure is 0-10% then we are in serious disagreement.

I think most would take the conservative view.

1. If you bid 3H, you need to have a good idea where to play, because whether partner bids 3S or 3N, his hand will remain quite undefined.

2. If you bid 2H, most of the time partner will give a preference to 2S, and when you now bid 3H, you have described your shape better than with a direct 3H.

I am a big fan of overbidding it it helps to find the right strain.(*) However, here underbidding will make it easier to show your shape, and thus find the right strain.

Arend

(*) I admit bidding 1S-1N-2C-2N-3H?? on KJ9xx QTx x AJTx might have been overdoing things.

[bid_em_up]

whereagles, on Nov 1 2006, 05:06 PM, said:

1. Maybe you're used to preferences always showing 2 cards. I usually take into consideration that pard may have a 1-3 and have no better bid.

2. "Just bidding 3m as a forcing bid" seems like a good way to get into an expensive misunderstanding, which is definitely what'll happen if you try that too often. I prefer 3m as natural and invitational.

3. Well, since I have 2 aces I think there's a chance pard will make 2♠. I'd pass if I had an ace less, as I said. 2♠ caters for the case when spades play better than hearts and for every hand where pard is strong enough for one final game try.

4. Illusions? I don't think so, but ok. Besides, passing 2♥ looks like masterminding to me. It's gambling that 9 hcp won't produce a game opposite a possible 16-17 and that's something the weak hand is not qualified to do. If you wanna mastermind, do it with the strong hand.

Hearts will always play better than spades (unless partner has 6 or more spades).

Catering to this possibility simply is not a good option.

Misfits should be devalued, not guessed at.

Partner will not hold 17. He would have bid 3H over 1N. He might have 16 but again, the misfit will not play well.

How can partner truly have a "natural and invitational" hand as you attempt to suggest? Is he going to bid 3m on a 3 card suit?? And now you want to suggest 5 of minor? With your stiff spade and weak heart holding?

Knock yourself out.

[the hog]

Close between Pass and 2S. 2S wins it for me by a narrow margin, as partner can make another move if he has a really good hand. 2NT as a game try is far too rich. From where are your tricks coming? Ds? Onli if pd has Hx. And look at that anaemic C suit! 3H is insane.

[pclayton]

If you want to take a position and pass 2♥; fine. You'll be in the best part score, all of the time (I don't this is a stretch).

If you want to try for game, take a false preference to 2♠. Pard will advance with extras (15-17 range) and you will get to 4♥, 3N or even a ♦ contract when its right. You will bid game when its right, but you will lose 6 IMPs to the other table when 2♠ goes down and 2♥ makes.

Both have their pluses and minuses. If you open on garbage holding both majors, by all means pass. If you're openings are robust, you better take a call.

Nothing convinces me from any of the comments to change my original answer of 2♠ at IMPs and pass at pairs.

[mike777]

2s at imps and 2h at MP.....hmmm i thought the those da.n italy players won all the part scores at imps?

[mikeh]

bid_em_up, on Nov 1 2006, 09:42 PM, said:

Partner will not hold 17. He would have bid 3H over 1N. 

Not if he knows how to play the game: poll true experts on AQJxx AKxx Kxx x and I would bet that fewer than 20% would bid 3♥... and this is a GREAT 17 count.

Ok, so I hold the ♠A: make it KQJxx AKxx Kx Jx.. no expert I know would bid 3♥ on this. Not to say that I know all experts... maybe some players better than me would choose 3♥, but I doubt it.

[HeartA]

mikeh, on Nov 2 2006, 12:57 AM, said:

Ok, so I hold the ♠A: make it KQJxx AKxx Kx Jx.. no expert I know would bid 3♥ on this. Not to say that I know all experts... maybe some players better than me would choose 3♥, but I doubt it.

Well, you cant have CJ either.

I would bid 2H with KQJxx AKxx Kx Jx, I admit. But this is the best 17, passing 2H would miss a game. But this is the best 17, itsn't it?

[Codo]

nothing in this threat convinced me, that passing is wrong. Yes an Ace may even be a better support then xx, but Txx is even better then that.
Yes I will frequently miss a game but I will be in the better partial more often then the 2 Spade bidders and my pd can trust my false preferences much more.

I see really no other bid with this shape. With a little more strength, 2 NT would be fine.

[whereagles]

HeartA, on Nov 1 2006, 10:32 PM, said:

1. If I really don't want to miss a possible game (pd holds 5-5 majors), I can bid 2NT.

2. What is the chance pd has 16-17 HCP?

1. To make an invitational bid with 9 hcp only requires something special, like a good suit of your own or good fillers for pard's suits. I have none of that so 2NT looks too optimistic to me.

2. Not as high as him having 11-15, obviously, but this imps. At matchpoints I suppose I could pass 2♥, betting this is our side's best spot. But at imps I think I should try for a game if that doesn't jeapordize our partscore too much, which I don't think it does. After all, why can't pard have 6 spades or 5 good ones, e.g. KQxxx?

I think the only time 2♠ is a heavy loser is when pard has a min 55 and hearts plays oh-so-much better. It's possible, of course, but on the other hand he can have a 6-4 with weakish Qxxx hearts and spades play far better.

[whereagles]

bid_em_up, on Nov 2 2006, 02:42 AM, said:

1. Misfits should be devalued, not guessed at.

2. How can partner truly have a "natural and invitational" hand as you attempt to suggest? Is he going to bid 3m on a 3 card suit?? And now you want to suggest 5 of minor? With your stiff spade and weak heart holding?

1. True, but with a weak hand I prefer to just say what I have and help the strong hand making the decisions. Especially at imps.

2. 3m could be a 16-17 hcp 5440, or, if you agree to this with pard, a fragment with 5431. Not playing fragments, the 5431 hand can try 2NT showing 16-17.

[bid_em_up]

mikeh, on Nov 2 2006, 12:57 AM, said:

bid_em_up, on Nov 1 2006, 09:42 PM, said:

Partner will not hold 17. He would have bid 3H over 1N. 

Not if he knows how to play the game: poll true experts on AQJxx AKxx Kxx x and I would bet that fewer than 20% would bid 3♥... and this is a GREAT 17 count.

Ok, so I hold the ♠A: make it KQJxx AKxx Kx Jx.. no expert I know would bid 3♥ on this. Not to say that I know all experts... maybe some players better than me would choose 3♥, but I doubt it.

Mike,

Surely you dont consider the 2nd hand a true 17 count holding Jx ♣. Change it to KQJxx AKJx Kx xx (same count, different location of hcp) and see how many do. Quit nitpicking.

[zasanya]

pclayton, on Nov 1 2006, 10:59 PM, said:

If you want to take a position and pass 2♥; fine. You'll be in the best part score, all of the time (I don't this is a stretch).

If you want to try for game, take a false preference to 2♠. Pard will advance with extras (15-17 range) and you will get to 4♥, 3N or even a ♦ contract when its right.

I am a great fan of your bidding ideas but I am puzzled by this one.After the false preference to ♠ wont P prefer 4 ♠ to any other game contract?How can one stop at 4♥?
I would really like you to answer that question.

[Blofeld]

bid_em_up, on Nov 2 2006, 09:43 AM, said:

mikeh, on Nov 2 2006, 12:57 AM, said:

bid_em_up, on Nov 1 2006, 09:42 PM, said:

Partner will not hold 17. He would have bid 3H over 1N. 

Not if he knows how to play the game: poll true experts on AQJxx AKxx Kxx x and I would bet that fewer than 20% would bid 3♥... and this is a GREAT 17 count.

Ok, so I hold the ♠A: make it KQJxx AKxx Kx Jx.. no expert I know would bid 3♥ on this. Not to say that I know all experts... maybe some players better than me would choose 3♥, but I doubt it.

Mike,

Surely you dont consider the 2nd hand a true 17 count holding Jx ♣. Change it to KQJxx AKJx Kx xx (same count, different location of hcp) and see how many do. Quit nitpicking.

Doesn't seem very fair for you to downgrade for Jx but not upgrade for all the lovely honours in the rest of the hand. I think Mike's hand is easily worth 17 points ... and your example about 18. Even so I'd bid a simple 2♥ on it.

[pclayton]

zasanya, on Nov 2 2006, 07:37 AM, said:

pclayton, on Nov 1 2006, 10:59 PM, said:

If you want to take a position and pass 2♥; fine. You'll be in the best part score, all of the time (I don't this is a stretch).

If you want to try for game, take a false preference to 2♠. Pard will advance with extras (15-17 range) and you will get to 4♥, 3N or even a ♦ contract when its right.

I am a great fan of your bidding ideas but I am puzzled by this one.After the false preference to ♠ wont P prefer 4 ♠ to any other game contract?How can one stop at 4♥?
I would really like you to answer that question.

Thanks for the props

Pard will pattern out with extras over 2♠, right? You generally don't have more than a doubleton spade when you take this preference, so there's no reason why pard should insist on spades.

[MickyB]

bid_em_up, on Nov 1 2006, 07:52 PM, said:

1S-1N-2H-2S-3m-4m-4S-? where partner was just bidding 3m as a forcing bid.

It would be an interesting decision to "just bid 3m as a forcing bid", because I'm fairly sure it should be NF! Opener is already limited by his failure to jump to 3♥ so is just patterning out with a game-try, why shouldn't responder pass if that looks likely to be the best spot?

I agree with those who are bidding 2♥ on relatively strong hands, leaving extra space makes it much more likely that you will reach the correct strain.

At the table I bid 2♠, pard had the dreaded minimum 5-5 with weakish spades and 2♠ drifted 3 off. I'm still not sure if I'll pass or bid 2♠ the next time I am dealt a hand like this!

[mikestar]

mikeh, on Nov 2 2006, 05:57 AM, said:

bid_em_up, on Nov 1 2006, 09:42 PM, said:

Partner will not hold 17. He would have bid 3H over 1N. 

Not if he knows how to play the game: poll true experts on AQJxx AKxx Kxx x and I would bet that fewer than 20% would bid 3♥... and this is a GREAT 17 count.

Ok, so I hold the ♠A: make it KQJxx AKxx Kx Jx.. no expert I know would bid 3♥ on this. Not to say that I know all experts... maybe some players better than me would choose 3♥, but I doubt it.

You are missing my point--I think most experts would bid 2♥ on the hand you gave, but my entire argument was concerning 5-5 hands! No 5-4 you can show me has any bearing on the question. Given KQJxx AKxxx Ax x will any expert risk being passed in 2♥? Surely at the very least a subtantial minority will force with this hand--and I expect it to be a majority choice.