[Echognome]

Scoring: IMP

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Contract: 6NT
Opening lead: small heart

I was given this hand by a friend. After North opens 1♠, South ends up in pushy contract of 6NT. This is not a question of the bidding, but rather how you are going to play to try to make your contract. If it helps, the opponents have been silent throughout.

[keylime]

Well this does not good for the home team - need to develop five tricks somewhere. And of course they led a heart.

My gut inclination is to work on spades and hope to get five tricks in spades - that gets you into potential squeeze territory.

[whereagles]

Spades wins with 3-2 (34%) with K onside, clubs wins with any 3-3 (36%) but might lead to entry trouble. Both lines require a 2nd finesse on top, or a squeeze. I think I'd try a spade because it leaves me with a more flexible entry situation for later on deciding on squeeze or club finesse.

So yeah, I agree with keylime

[Free]

Starting with ♠ is also imo the best chance for success...

[Echognome]

I think you all might want to think about it a bit further.

In spades, JT in the East hand also works.

In clubs, Tx either side also works.

Regardless of which black suit you play on, you need the other black K onside and I'm not sure how that affects the odds of which suit to play on.

[FrancesHinden]

The spades aren't ever playing for no losers.
If we had the 8 of clubs, the clubs can play for no losers, but let's assume we don't (if we had the 87 of clubs we can also pick up singleton K or singleton 10 for one loser).

We don't necessarily need the other black king onside, but that is likely to be better odds than the alternative squeeze.

line 1
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Win heart in dummy, spade to the queen. If this loses (and LHO doesn't have J10 doubleton spade) play the clubs for no losers.

Otherwise, you make 5 spade tricks if spades are 3-2 with the King onside (34%), or RHO has J10 doubleton (3.4%). You will also need the CK onside, giving you about 19% overall.

If the king pops up on your right on the first round, you have to decide if it's K10 or KJ doubleton (continue playing on spades) or singleton king (play on clubs).

line 2
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Win heart in dummy, advance the CJ. Clubs play for 1 loser if they are
3-3 (36%)
4-2 with the 10 doubleton (16%)

We also need the SK onside, giving us about 26% overall.

This is clearly better.

hybid lines
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There are various hybrid lines (e.g. win the heart, run the jack of clubs; if it holds - as it will do much of the time the king is onside - continue with a spade to the queen next in case the miracle J10 doubleton is there). The problem with these lines is that they rather depend on the opponents never falsecarding.

[Mosene]

I thought the assumption was we do not have the 8 of clubs. if so, there is 0 chance to pull clubs with no losers.

[keylime]

Agreed. With the 8C I might consider doing the clubs, but even then the problem I have is the fact that RHO or LHO with K-T-x or K-T-x-x is surely going to duck the club trick. The JC being stiff is quite awkward.

I still like the spade development. Granted this is the wrong slam to be in but we must now make it to look like we're competent.

[Echognome]

You can assume the other x's are quite small. I was assured there is no 8 of clubs.

[ArcLight]

I think Clubs are more likely than Spades to yield 5 tricks, because of the jack.
Still, you need an extra trick, and thats the Spade finesse.

Win the heart king
take the WINNING spade finesse (you can cash a dime and hope for a stiff Q, don't hold your breath)
play on clubs

[bid_em_up]

FrancesHinden, on Nov 1 2006, 06:28 AM, said:

line 2
------
Win heart in dummy, advance the CJ.  Clubs play for 1 loser if they are
3-3 (36%)
4-2 with the 10 doubleton (16%)

We also need the SK onside, giving us about 26% overall.

This is clearly better.

You also gain whenever RHO holds Kx of clubs and fails to cover the J (hey, it does happen!!).

Making this the best overall choice I believe as well.

[MartininBC]

Hmm, with only five red tricks, and only five POSSIBLE in either black suit, to make this contract requires BOTH finesses to work. Given that, wouldn't it be best to just TAKE both finesses? If nothing helpful develops (i.e. KC or TC drops) to indicate clubs are likely to give five tricks, cash the AS, as 3-2 spades are more likely than 3-3 clubs. If both follow, cross to AD and concede a spade. If spades are 4-1, try clubs and hope for a miracle (one loser, and that in the hand that can't cash a spade winner).