[hrothgar]

This hand is generating a fair amount of discussion on another bridge forum.

Scoring: MP

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The auction starts

(1♣) - P - (1♦) - P
(1♥) - P - (2NT) - All pass

1♣ shows 12-14 balanced or a natural club suit
1♦ is a transfer showing 4+ Hearts
1♥ shows 3♥

What's your lead?

[Echognome]

First off, I know that this hand is going to be played the other way around at most tables. Either opener will have opened 1NT or rebid 1NT depending on their methods. Presumably the 1♥ bid showed a minimum hand to begin with, so 2NT should show a fairly decent 11 or 12 count.

I guess I still don't know if opener has a weak NT or natural clubs. I believe the most likely hand is a weak NT. However, I'm not willing to risk opening up the clubs for him.

I think a ♥ lead is passive and is somewhat attractive at MPs. However, since hearts seem to be 3=2=4=4 around the table, I don't want to take away a ♥ guess for the Q if partner happens to be sitting on Qx.

I've learned from one of our eminent posters in here that leading from a doubleton is bad (unless you have good reason), so I'll rule out ♦'s as well. However, we can also add to that partner did not make an overcall in ♦ (nor in any other suit), so he's not looking at good ♦ and leading one doesn't make any sense.

That leaves me with a spade, I'm choosing my small spot. It could turn out that spades are 4=3=3=3 around the table and i've just picked them up (e.g. AQxx opposite Jxx with partner having Txx), but I gotta lead something.

[awm]

Partner seems to have around 10 hcp. If partner had a five-card diamond or spade suit, it seems extremely likely partner would bid (my partners almost never pass ten-counts with five-card suits when a one-level overcall is available).

So partner has 3-4 spades (opponents might've looked for spades with 4-4), 2 hearts exactly, and at most 4 diamonds. This means partner has at least three clubs and quite possibly four, especially if opponents open this way with 4342/3343 type patterns (I assume they do from the explanation of their methods).

I'd lead a club.

[pclayton]

I agree with the other posters so far, in that its likely pard does not have 5 spades or 5 diamonds.

Nothing looks appetizing. I think my 2nd highest club is the most logical. Even if I lead into a doubleton honor on my right, we probably haven't lost anything, versus, all other suits has hige potential to blow a trick.

[whereagles]

I hate these leads... I was going to lead a club, but my feeling tells me a heart is right... so that's what I lead.

[mcphee]

It seems it can be possible for 1C to be as few 3 cards, maybe 2 and my RHO has likely 4H and 3S. It looks to me that a C may be a lead that could work well, I doubt partner has S, he had a chance to bid those twice, D 10? not me. C feels best to me.

[FrancesHinden]

Just saying '12-14 balanced or clubs' isn't really enough. There are two (OK, at least two) styles of playing this:

a) Open 1D with 4-4 in the minors, or with 5 diamonds; otherwise open 1C
Open 1C on all weak NTs, including hands with a 5-card diamond suit or 4-4 in the minors

Against a club lead is a lot more attractive than against a)

[zasanya]

Jlall, on Oct 25 2006, 02:24 PM, said:

I'd lead a spade...no strong reasoning.

How about "when defending 1 NT and with no attractive lead, lead the unbid major"?
I vote for small ♠.

[Echognome]

awm, on Oct 25 2006, 05:03 PM, said:

Partner seems to have around 10 hcp. If partner had a five-card diamond or spade suit, it seems extremely likely partner would bid (my partners almost never pass ten-counts with five-card suits when a one-level overcall is available).

Do your partners not care at all about suit quality?

Which of these hands would your partner overcall with:

♠Qxxxx ♥Qx ♦AQxx ♣ xx

♠JTxxx ♥Ax ♦Kxxx ♣Kx

♠AQxx ♥xx ♦Kxxxx ♣Qx

♠ATx ♥xx ♦Qxxxx ♣KQx