awm, on Oct 24 2006, 09:10 PM, said:
Seems like bridgebrowser might be a better tool than double-dummy solvers to evaluate the forcing 1NT response. A major issue is that while the "best two-suit partial" is often superior to 1NT, it's not clear how likely we are to find that partial after the forcing 1NT response. If opener bids 1♠ and responder is 1552 or 1435 with opener rebidding the shorter minor, it's anyone's guess where our best two-level spot might happen to be. In addition, 2/1 bidders are more often forced to take false preferences (i.e. bidding 2♠ after 1♠-1NT-2♣ when holding four clubs and two spades) which could easily be wrong (say opener has 5♠+5♣). In any case I'd recommend:
Look at hands where opener is 5(332) with 12-14 hcp and responder has 6-9 hcp with 0-2♠. Compare results from people who played the hand in 1NT versus those who played in 2♣ or above. Most likely it will be important to control for lehmans or the like, because 2/1 has become a defacto "expert standard" whereas many beginners play NF notrumps. Of course, this misses out on the hands where NF notrumpers win because they know openers 2m rebid promised four (as we're only comparing the results on the hands where NF notrumpers pass 1NT and forcing notrumps bid) but it still should give a reasonable picture.
Look at hands where opener is 5(332) with 12-14 hcp and responder has 6-9 hcp with 0-2♠. Compare results from people who played the hand in 1NT versus those who played in 2♣ or above. Most likely it will be important to control for lehmans or the like, because 2/1 has become a defacto "expert standard" whereas many beginners play NF notrumps. Of course, this misses out on the hands where NF notrumpers win because they know openers 2m rebid promised four (as we're only comparing the results on the hands where NF notrumpers pass 1NT and forcing notrumps bid) but it still should give a reasonable picture.
Here's one other issue that might complicate the analysis:
There are a number of different response styles to a forcing NT. For example, the version of Polish Club that I originally learned uses a forcing NT response. However, the auction 1M - 1N - 2♦ promises 4+ Diamonds, while the 2♣ rebid only promised a doubleton. (I hadn't seen this before. I suspect that this innovation was inspired by the rest of this Polish CLoub variant, where a 1♦ opening promises 4+ Diamonds and a 1♣ opening could be based on a doubleton)
Personally, if I were going to study this I'd use a script. I think that the rules set for scrambling auctions is simple enough that you can produce some reasonable results.

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