[mike777]

1) 958 more members this year than last,
2) 155,706 total acbl members
3) attendance at local f2f club games is up
4) online acbl games up 12%
5) 137,393 online tourney tables first 7 months.
6) hints of progress towards sectional and higher rated online games in a year?

[hrothgar]

Raw membership numbers really isn't sufficient to evaluate the health of an organization like the ACBL. Realistically, you need to be tracking four key parameters.

The mode age of the membership
The rate of change of the mode membership age over time
The age at which members drop out the system

Take these three data points together, along with some information about what percentage of the membership roll falls into your demographic buldge and you can figure out when the bottem drops out,,,

[pclayton]

hrothgar, on Oct 18 2006, 02:03 PM, said:

Raw membership numbers really isn't sufficient to evaluate the health of an organization like the ACBL. Realistically, you need to be tracking four key parameters.

The mode age of the membership
The rate of change of the mode membership age over time
The age at which members drop out the system

Take these three data points together, along with some information about what percentage of the membership roll falls into your demographic buldge and you can figure out when the bottem drops out,,,

Why is mode better than median? Who cares if there are 10,000 73 year olds versus 9,000 74 year olds?

I'd also add in expectancy levels and the age of the new members.

[hrothgar]

pclayton, on Oct 19 2006, 03:12 AM, said:

hrothgar, on Oct 18 2006, 02:03 PM, said:

Raw membership numbers really isn't sufficient to evaluate the health of an organization like the ACBL. Realistically, you need to be tracking four key parameters.

The mode age of the membership
The rate of change of the mode membership age over time
The age at which members drop out the system

Take these three data points together, along with some information about what percentage of the membership roll falls into your demographic buldge and you can figure out when the bottem drops out,,,

Why is mode better than median? Who cares if there are 10,000 73 year olds versus 9,000 74 year olds?

I'd also add in expectancy levels and the age of the new members.

Mode is better than median because you are tracking a demographic buldge...

The big fear is a sudden collapse in income when the buldge exits the system

[pbleighton]

The numbers don't tell the whole story.

In Connecticut, I have watched over the 3.5 years I've played ftf bridge, and have seen the serious players (average age close to 70) age/die. Many of these players started playing in their youth or middle age. This is a shrinking pool. They'll be mostly gone in 15 years.

There are new players, who play in beginner games, who are generally in their early or mid 60s. These people have a good time, but very rarely have the attitude/aptitude to become decent players, much less strong A players. They might play in an intermediate game, but not the stronger games, and have little or no interest in tournaments.

As a result, attendance in regionals and sectionals slowly declines.

I think online bridge will "win" by default.

Peter

[Al_U_Card]

Poker was only popular in pool halls and weekly games until it got into the high stakes arena. The internet facilitates exposure and growth but does not generate interest by itself. If you want bridge to grow like poker, show them the money.

[hrothgar]

Al_U_Card, on Oct 19 2006, 08:23 PM, said:

Poker was only popular in pool halls and weekly games until it got into the high stakes arena. The internet facilitates exposure and growth but does not generate interest by itself. If you want bridge to grow like poker, show them the money.

The Internet is only part of the story...

All forms of poker are not created equal. Have you seen many televised tournaments featuring 7 card stud or 5 card draw? I haven't. All the TVs are based on Texas Hold'Em.

Hold'Em is an extremely simple game.
The strategy space is very restricted.
The most important skills are social in nature (Hiding your tells, reading the opponent)

Bridge is enormously more complex.
Its not gonna make for good TV...

[Echognome]

pclayton, on Oct 19 2006, 12:12 AM, said:

hrothgar, on Oct 18 2006, 02:03 PM, said:

Raw membership numbers really isn't sufficient to evaluate the health of an organization like the ACBL. Realistically, you need to be tracking four key parameters.

The mode age of the membership
The rate of change of the mode membership age over time
The age at which members drop out the system

Take these three data points together, along with some information about what percentage of the membership roll falls into your demographic buldge and you can figure out when the bottem drops out,,,

Why is mode better than median? Who cares if there are 10,000 73 year olds versus 9,000 74 year olds?

I'd also add in expectancy levels and the age of the new members.

I'm with you on this one Phil. Mode means very little to me. Median age is fine. Although if you want to know how the distribution is changing, nothing beats simply looking at the distribution! Arguing about which summary stats are most descriptive seems a bit futile.

[pigpenz]

when i started playing bridge in my 20's there seemed to be more college age kids playing...30 yrs later i dont think the trend is the same unless you live in a college town. You still need young people to keep the excitement up and membership growing.

The downside to f2f bridge i see is the cost of where the regionals are held..Ouch some places is $200 night