[kgr]

Scoring: IMP

1D-3NT

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Opps Intermediate/advanced level (but not too advanced).
After West started with a pass you reach 3NT.
West starts with ♠6 (4th best), you play the J in dummy and that holds.
You now play a small ♦ from dummy, East the T and you the J, which holds (You played ♦ hoping that West would win and would continue ♠, your table feel makes you think that West has ♠AQxxx and also a ♦ honour).
Now you play ♣A followed by a ♣ to the King. Opps following low-high playing natural (low-high shows odd number; If they want to show it...if the are signalling this...it they don't forget to signal).
Now small ♣ from dummy. East the ♣8.
(Do you agree with bidding and play thill now?)
Do you finesse or play for the drop?
What is the percentage play considering West has 5 Spades?
What are the exact percentages for 3-3 and 4-2 now (If they are almost the same then the finesse has to be the better play. Maybe West will play Spades himself when the finesse looses)?

[kgr]

Assuming:
West has 5 Spades and 2+ diamonds
East has 3 Spades and 2+ diamonds
gives on:
http://www.rpbridge....cgi-bin/xcc1.pl

For the 2 ♣ distributions that are still possible:
Jxx vs xxx : 18.65%
xx vs Jxxx : 23.32 %
Seems like finesse is better. How to calculate/estimate this at the table?

[whereagles]

Usually I trust their carding, but in this case I'll finesse. If it wins, great. If not, I'm not 'dead' yet.

[kenberg]

I don't quite agree with the play so far.

After the D holds (whew) I think the Q, not the ace, of clubs should be lead. There is more of a push to give honest count if it appears that declarer is trying to drive out the ace. When the ace is played first, the possibility of a hold-up does not exist, and opponents are quite likely to see no reason to tell you how the suit is splitting.

After the Q of clubs is led, I think three rounds of hearts should be played. They may split 5-2. Next, you have the opening lead of the 6 to evaluate. If your spade spots are the 2 and 3, this 6 might be fourth best, but if your spots are the 27 it is highly likely the lead was from a five card suit. Further, since rho would have played a spade honor on the J if he had it, he will presumably feel it safe and right to play a count card at T1. Finally, you have the diamond cards to look at. It was really nice they both ducked. Surely rho would have gone up with the ace and put a spade through, so lho is ducking with the ace. You could see what you can make of the spots. I think the ten is from king ten tight if they are playing standard count, since ten from KTx would not be right.

If I decide not to trust any of this I would play for the drop. But I think I would try the evidence form the other suits first. If it is inconclusive, or worse contradictory, I have a problem. Such is life. The default is to play for the drop, but ...

[kgr]

kenberg, on Oct 2 2006, 12:03 AM, said:

After the D holds (whew) I think the Q, not the ace, of clubs should be lead. There is more of a push to give honest count if it appears that declarer is trying to drive out the ace. When the ace is played first, the possibility of a hold-up does not exist, and opponents are quite likely to see no reason to tell you how the suit is splitting.

Very interesting. Never considered this.

Quote

After the Q of clubs is led, I think three rounds of hearts should be played. They may split 5-2. Next, you have the opening lead of the 6 to evaluate. If your spade spots are the 2 and 3, this 6 might be fourth best, but if your spots are the 27 it is highly likely the lead was from a five card suit. Further, since rho would have played a spade honor on the J if he had it, he will presumably feel it safe and right to play a count card at T1.

I don't think these opps play count here.

Quote

Finally, you have the diamond cards to look at. It was really nice they both ducked. Surely rho would have gone up with the ace and put a spade through, so lho is ducking with the ace. You could see what you can make of the spots. I think the ten is from king ten tight if they are playing standard count, since ten from KTx would not be right.

RHO had ♦AT...But right. I could have concluded that RHO had doubleton.

Quote

If I decide not to trust any of this I would play for the drop. But I think I would try the evidence form the other suits first. If it is inconclusive, or worse contradictory, I have a problem. Such is life. The default is to play for the drop, but ...

The lead and other ♠ spots (I don't remember exactly what they were) indicated that LHO had a 5-card. This alone was making the ♣ finesse the favourite.
I played for the drop and RHO had Jxxx.
Thanks for the answer!

[kenberg]

Thanks. Don't forget the hearts. Play three rounds and you have placed lho with five spades, three hearts, three diamonds and voila.

[kgr]

kenberg, on Oct 2 2006, 01:37 AM, said:

Thanks. Don't forget the hearts. Play three rounds and you have placed lho with five spades, three hearts, three diamonds and voila.

hm..luckily my teammates think it was just a guess

[kenberg]

You needn't tell them! But the real truth is that it's a lot easier sitting at home with a glass of wine, taking my time to think it out. Nice hand.

Surely rho should have gone up with the ace of diamonds and laid down a spade, and for that matter probably with the king ten he should rise, but defenders don't always get it right.