[mike777]

Scoring: MP

(1H)=3S=(4H)=?

---

Your call and why?

The purpose of the BW Master Solver problems it to let us, the reader, in on how World Class players think at the table.

As usual we are playing Matchpoints and our pickup partner and opponents are World Class Players.

[inquiry]

At this vul at matchpoints , I expect partner to have six or maybe if he is a wild guy who believes is Robson/Segal five spades (and with 7, they would be really poor). Even in days of rule of 3 or 4, my three tricks is only enough to give us a play for 3S, not 4S. And at this vul, many use rule of being within 5 of bid, which means with my three tricks, partner might go down two in 3♠.

So I am not bidding 4♠. I do, however, have three tricks, and the opponents seem to hold around five spades. If we can make 3S (+140), I need to protect my score so I will double (at imps I would pass). Hopefully partner has a trick, or my doubleton spade and jack of hearts will cause problems, or the AKJ of clubs turns into three tricks either by the club queen being in dummy or partner getting a club ruff. IF they make it, well, I have gotten zero's before.

[pbleighton]

It's matchpoints. I double.

At teams I would have to bid 4S.

Peter

[Flame]

4S is imo out of the question no matter what the scoring mathod is.
At mp id double expecting to score 4 trciks maybe with a ruff in partner's hand.
At imps double is still an option that could work but i prefer pass.

[Winstonm]

27 missing HCP and partner, unless truly a madman, should hold 3-5 of those, meaning opps have stretched somewhat to bid this game. If it makes I am in for a likely poor score regardless but a +200 should be all the MPs so I am going to turn the screw and double. I can only count 9 tricks for opps unless they can get a ruff along the way, and even then we may get a ruff in before they do.

At imps I pass and take what I think is a likely plus score.

[keylime]

Ditto Winston.

[HeartA]

I voted for 4S.

Opps might have stretched for 4H. But I don't see many defensive tricks: 1D+1.5C+0.5S(from pd). While 4S has a good chance: 1 or 2 H losers. We may or may not have a spade loser. For minors, if pd was short in C (unless toooo short), I have good chance to set up C without lossing a trick; if pd has long C, C may not have losers at all, andpd would not have many cards in red suits.

[EricK]

inquiry, on Sep 23 2006, 03:36 PM, said:

At this vul at matchpoints , I expect partner to have six or maybe if he is a wild guy who believes is Robson/Segal five spades (and with 7, they would be really poor).

I don't think Robson/Segal suggest really wild pre-empts in second seat even at this vulnerability.

[whereagles]

Depends a bit on pard's style. Most of the times, though, pass.

[arrows]

My choice is 4♠.

Double for plus 200 looks plausible, but one has to assume one's opponents are
smart enough for the game too. When they bid 4♥ at this vul, they expect to
MAKE the contract.

looking at my hand, I can't see how they had a 4♥ bid on power. Given Heart
Ace king and spade ace, west barely had a opening hand, and that leaves east
Heart Q and other soft value in minors. Do you really think he wanted to try his
luck at this vul with a mediocre distribution?

Wild distribution strongly favors bidding on, instead of passing or double.

I expect they have 10 hearts and we have 9 spades. the LAW says double is a poor decision.

[pclayton]

I think was October "F". The problem is posed as what do you bid at MPs AND IMPs.

MPs - Double (double or save situation)
IMPs - 4♠

[mike777]

I usually become convinced after reading the arguments in BW. On this problem I thought all the comments for the MP problem were very strong.
1) Are we more than 50% likely to defeat 4H?
2) Are we very likely to defeat or have a good save on this hand, if so then pass cannot be an option?
3) Should we trust that the opp know what they are doing at this vul. and so should save?
4) Do we need to protect our 140 in spades?
5) Just how weak or random can our world class partner's 3s bid be at MP at this vul?
6) Should our approach be at MP to avoid bottoms and 4HX making will be a bottom so we should pass?
7) Has our partner's 3S forced the opp to guess at the 4 level, so we should pass and see if they guessed correctly and not risk 4Hx making for a bottom?

[inquiry]

EricK, on Sep 24 2006, 01:33 AM, said:

inquiry, on Sep 23 2006, 03:36 PM, said:

At this vul at matchpoints , I expect partner to have six or maybe if he is a wild guy who believes is Robson/Segal five spades (and with 7, they would be really poor).

I don't think Robson/Segal suggest really wild pre-empts in second seat even at this vulnerability.

Second seat preempts are "sound" or typical.. but this isn't a second seat preempt, there has already been an opening bid. Here they recommend very aggressive preempts at this vul.

[Flame]

arrows, on Sep 24 2006, 03:03 PM, said:

My choice is 4♠.

Double for plus 200 looks plausible, but one has to assume one's opponents are
smart enough for the game too. When they bid 4♥ at this vul, they expect to
MAKE the contract.

looking at my hand, I can't see how they had a 4♥ bid on power. Given Heart
Ace king and spade ace, west barely had a opening hand, and that leaves east
Heart Q and other soft value in minors. Do you really think he wanted to try his
luck at this vul with a mediocre distribution?

Wild distribution strongly favors bidding on, instead of passing or double.

I expect they have 10 hearts and we have 9 spades. the LAW says double is a poor decision.

If you think your opponents always do the right thing then dont bother playing against them because you will always lose.
The resson you prempt is to make them make a mistake and get to the wrong contract, it doesnt make sense to assume they always make the right choices and take the last guess yourself. Here the 4H bidder know his partner has 1 to 22 hcp, with this huge range he guess to bid 4H, its quite likely that he is just being optimistic hoping his partner has more then minimum opening. This is my alternative suggestion answer to "how can they bid game when im looking at points" rather then your suggestion "they must have great shape".
Im not commenting to the 4S decision (already said im against it) but to the naive approach that imo is a losing approach.

[arrows]

Quote

If you think your opponents always do the right thing then dont bother playing against them because you will always lose.
The resson you prempt is to make them make a mistake and get to the wrong contract, it doesnt make sense to assume they always make the right choices and take the last guess yourself. Here the 4H bidder know his partner has 1 to 22 hcp, with this huge range he guess to bid 4H, its quite likely that he is just being optimistic hoping his partner has more then minimum opening. This is my alternative suggestion answer to "how can they bid game when im looking at points" rather then your suggestion "they must have great shape".
Im not commenting to the 4S decision (already said im against it) but to the naive approach that imo is a losing approach.

LOL, What I suggested is that they were optimistic for a reason, based on the fact and reasoning, it's likely they had heck of distributions. What you suggested is that they were optimistic for a reason, too, becase they were stupid.

I couldn't see why this approach is less naive than mine. Not to mention that
your opponents in the question are "experts".

However, you do have a point. I agree with you that against some opponents,
for example, those who tend to assume others are naive, not bidding 4♠ is
more advisable in a long run.

[Flame]

You got it wrong. Its not stupidity to bid 4H here and go down.
lets say they need to be in game with 25 total points (thats including distribution)
the responder has 9 of them, how can he know if his partner has 16 or just 13 ?
He made his own guess , now you are looking at cards that suggest he guessed wrong, but instead of doubling you decide he must have made the right guess so the shapes must be wild.
Im telling you this because im sure if you understand this and use it at the table tou will become a better player.