[winkle]

Scoring: IMP

Uncontested auction:

1♥-1nt
2♣-2♠
3♣-5♣
PO

---

Lefty leads the ♦5. You win as righty follow with the ♦6 (standard leads and carding). Plan your play.

If and when you cash the ♦K, lefty will play the ♦7 and righty the ♦2.

[mikeh]

I think there are two plausible lines here:

1. Cash the trump Ace: and then ♦ A and ruff, ♥A and ruff and ruff last ♦ with the Q. If they overruff: we can claim 11 tricks, unless LHO was 3=5=3=2 amd RHO scores the trump 10 on the third round of ♥. If they do not overruff the trump Q, then a ♥ ruff in dummy and a trump: if the ♣ K or 10 is stiff or if the suit breaks 2-2, and rho cannot overruff the 3rd ♥ from an original holding of 10x, we lose only a ♠ and a trump.

2. Win the first trick, cash the ♥A and ruff a ♥, trump to the Q. If it wins, ruff a second ♥, trump to the A and ruff the 4th round of ♥, establishing the long ♥ on 4-3 breaks. If trump were 2-2 with the K onside and ♥ 4-3, we pitch a ♠ from dummy on the last ♥, making 2 top ♦, a ♦ruff, two ♥ tricks, one ♠ and 6 trump tricks: 12 in all. But, of course, our goal is not to maximize our tricks but to maximize the play for the contract.

If the trump finesse loses, they probably play a ♠, attacking the entry to the long ♥: now abandon efforts to establish that suit: second ♦, ruff a ♦, ruff a ♥, ruff a ♦ with the A and ruff a ♥, hoping to avoid an overruff and to either draw trump or exit the losing ♠, leaving dummy with J9 of trump and the opps on play: if RHO won the ♠, claim...so would need to be at the table to decide which line in the endgame. Obviously, if the stiff 10♣ appeared early, there is no guess.

I tend to favour the first line, but I have not tried to work out the percentages,

[pclayton]

mikeh, on Sep 24 2006, 10:42 AM, said:

I think there are two plausible lines here:

1. Cash the trump Ace: and then ♦ A and ruff, ♥A and ruff and ruff last ♦ with the Q. If they overruff: we can claim 11 tricks, unless LHO was 3=5=3=2 amd RHO scores the trump 10 on the third round of ♥. If they do not overruff the trump Q, then a ♥ ruff in dummy and a trump: if the ♣ K or 10 is stiff or if the suit breaks 2-2, and rho cannot overruff the 3rd ♥ from an original holding of 10x, we lose only a ♠ and a trump.

2. Win the first trick, cash the ♥A and ruff a ♥, trump to the Q. If it wins, ruff a second ♥, trump to the A and ruff the 4th round of ♥, establishing the long ♥ on 4-3 breaks. If trump were 2-2 with the K onside and ♥ 4-3, we pitch a ♠ from dummy on the last ♥, making 2 top ♦, a ♦ruff, two ♥ tricks, one ♠ and 6 trump tricks: 12 in all. But, of course, our goal is not to maximize our tricks but to maximize the play for the contract.

If the trump finesse loses, they probably play a ♠, attacking the entry to the long ♥: now abandon efforts to establish that suit: second ♦, ruff a ♦, ruff a ♥, ruff a ♦ with the A and ruff a ♥, hoping to avoid an overruff and to either draw trump or exit the losing ♠, leaving dummy with J9 of trump and the opps on play: if RHO won the ♠, claim...so would need to be at the table to decide which line in the endgame. Obviously, if the stiff 10♣ appeared early, there is no guess.

I tend to favour the first line, but I have not tried to work out the percentages,

I like 1 better than 2, but I think theres a better line:

1. A♦
2. A♥
3. ruff heart
4. K♦
5. ruff ♦ (whats happening with spots?)
6. ruff heart
7. play 4th ♦; if RHO follows, ruff with the A. If RHO pitches (he can't pitch a heart profitably), ruff with the Q.
8. 4th ♥. If LHO follows, ruff with the J. If LHO pitches; ruff low.

Eventually I will score my A♠ and pitch dumy's spade on the (hopefully) good heart.


In general, I am trying to hold my losers to the K-T of clubs, and my strong spots make this a heavy favorite.

[winkle]

pclayton, on Sep 24 2006, 04:31 PM, said:

1. A♦
2. A♥
3. ruff heart
4. K♦
5. ruff ♦ (whats happening with spots?)
6. ruff heart
7. play 4th ♦; if RHO follows, ruff with the A. If RHO pitches (he can't pitch a heart profitably), ruff with the Q.
8. 4th ♥. If LHO follows, ruff with the J. If LHO pitches; ruff low.

Eventually I will score my A♠ and pitch dumy's spade on the (hopefully) good heart.


In general, I am trying to hold my losers to the K-T of clubs, and my strong spots make this a heavy favorite.

Suppose lefty has the long hearts and righty the long diamonds, so you've ruffed high twice. This leaves:

Scoring: IMP

---

What would you do next? Aren't you in danger of losing 3 trump tricks if righty has Kx or KTx of trumps?

[joshs]

Hmm. I think the best line is to take the double hook in diamonds, so low at trick 1. This requires 1 of 2 diamonds on and either K or Kx of trumps on side, or Kxx of trumps onside, and diamonds 4-3 (you can get rid of your spade loser on the diamonds)

[pclayton]

winkle, on Sep 24 2006, 03:56 PM, said:

pclayton, on Sep 24 2006, 04:31 PM, said:

1. A♦
2. A♥
3. ruff heart
4. K♦
5. ruff ♦ (whats happening with spots?)
6. ruff heart
7. play 4th ♦; if RHO follows, ruff with the A. If RHO pitches (he can't pitch a heart profitably), ruff with the Q.
8. 4th ♥. If LHO follows, ruff with the J. If LHO pitches; ruff low.

Eventually I will score my A♠ and pitch dumy's spade on the (hopefully) good heart.


In general, I am trying to hold my losers to the K-T of clubs, and my strong spots make this a heavy favorite.

Suppose lefty has the long hearts and righty the long diamonds, so you've ruffed high twice. This leaves:

Scoring: IMP

---

What would you do next? Aren't you in danger of losing 3 trump tricks if righty has Kx or KTx of trumps?

If everything lived up to this point I would play the Q♣.

Responding to Josh - I thought about the double hook in ♦'s too, but what are you going to do if they return a spade? You are reduced to having stiff K or Kx of clubs with the 3 diamonds.

Hate to say it, but I'd like to hear what GIB says about this hand. There's just too many permutations

[winkle]

pclayton, on Sep 25 2006, 10:47 AM, said:

Hate to say it, but I'd like to hear what GIB says about this hand. There's just too many permutations

Unfortunately, GIB is pretty useless in non-double dummy problems. A good human is still miles ahead.

[joshs]

pclayton, on Sep 25 2006, 10:47 AM, said:

winkle, on Sep 24 2006, 03:56 PM, said:

pclayton, on Sep 24 2006, 04:31 PM, said:

1. A♦
2. A♥
3. ruff heart
4. K♦
5. ruff ♦ (whats happening with spots?)
6. ruff heart
7. play 4th ♦; if RHO follows, ruff with the A. If RHO pitches (he can't pitch a heart profitably), ruff with the Q.
8. 4th ♥. If LHO follows, ruff with the J. If LHO pitches; ruff low.

Eventually I will score my A♠ and pitch dumy's spade on the (hopefully) good heart.


In general, I am trying to hold my losers to the K-T of clubs, and my strong spots make this a heavy favorite.

Suppose lefty has the long hearts and righty the long diamonds, so you've ruffed high twice. This leaves:

Scoring: IMP

---

What would you do next? Aren't you in danger of losing 3 trump tricks if righty has Kx or KTx of trumps?

If everything lived up to this point I would play the Q♣.

Responding to Josh - I thought about the double hook in ♦'s too, but what are you going to do if they return a spade? You are reduced to having stiff K or Kx of clubs with the 3 diamonds.

Hate to say it, but I'd like to hear what GIB says about this hand. There's just too many permutations

Of course they are returning a spade. Trick 1 you hook in diamonds and it (probably) loses. Trick 2 a spade comes back, which you win. Trick 3 you hook in diamonds. trick 4 you hook in clubs. If the hooks work on tricks 3 and 4 work you make. Sadly it is only about 33% if you assume that LHO will usually lead an honor from the QJ of diamonds (so the double hook is only around 2/3 instead of the usual 3/4). Other lines give up a spade and require 2 diamond ruffs, weaking trumps so much that I think the odds are better than 2/3 that the K and T will both score for the defense (via an overruff or promotion) although I haven't done the math.

Another interesting line is to try to set up the hearts, and maybe combine this with the crossruff.
Win the D. H to A, heart ruff, trump to Q (maybe trump to 7 is better?), and if it wins:
Cash th trump A, then heart ruff, diamond ruff and later get to the long heart via the spade ace.

This will make whenever:
a. hearts are 4-3 and trumps 2-2 OR trumps are 3-1
with K onside
b. hearts are 5-2 with no overruff, and trumps are 2-2 with K on

and a few other more esoteric positions

So this has to be better than my line.

[winkle]

Here is the line I like:

Win ♦A, ♥A, heart ruff, ♦K, diamond ruff, heart ruff (low unfortunately), diamond ruff with Q. Then,

1. If lefty overruffs, his best return is a spade. I would win the spade ace, then play the fourth heart. If lefty shows out I ruff low; if lefty follows I ruff high. Then club to the ace and play the last heart pitching a spade.

2. If lefty does not overruff, cash the ♣A and ruff the fourth heart, then eventually pitch the spade on the fifth heart.

If hearts and diamonds break, this line picks up all 2-2 or 3-1 club breaks except when lefty has precisely stiff K AND lefty has short diamonds AND righty has short hearts (making lefty's shape 5=4=3=1). A bad diamond break would lower the chance of success a little bit, but most of the time the line would still succeed.

This line is closest to Phil's line, except it always retains the ♣A to draw trumps rather than to ruff high. It avoids many cases where one loses two trump tricks to the king and ten, and the last heart gets ruffed by their small trump.

[HeartA]

♦A
♦K
♦ruff
♣A
♥A
♥ruff
♦ruff
...
Assuming 3rd didn't get over-ruffed, you are home if CK stiff, or CT stiff, or C2-2.

[Limey_p]

HeartA, on Sep 26 2006, 09:44 PM, said:

♦A
♦K
♦ruff
♣A
♥A
♥ruff
♦ruff
...
Assuming 3rd didn't get over-ruffed, you are home if CK stiff, or CT stiff, or C2-2.

I generally agree with this line. Perhaps a spade ruff to the board is better than a heart, so duck a spade at trick two?

Andy