[Stephen Tu]

Scoring: MP

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Opponents bid uncontested : 1♥-1nt-3♥-4♥.
You as West lead ♠5 (3rd from 4 by agreement). Partner wins ♠K & ♠A, then leads ♠8.
Declarer follows for third time as you win the ♠Q.
What do you play & why?

Please post answers in hidden text, I want to gauge how people do on their own.

[hatchett]

Spoiler

A fourth round of spades looks clearly best and will beat it whenever partner has the ♥T.
It will only cost when partner hasn't cashed the ♣A, which he should have done before the third round oh spades.

[1eyedjack]

Spoiler

If partner has D:K or H:A or H:K we don't need to do anything spectacular. So assume declarer has those cards.

We could hope to promote the H:J by continuing with a 4th round of S, hoping that partner has H:T.

This line loses when declarer has H:AKT and D:K but partner has C:A, when a simple C switch would beat it. But I reckon declarer is likely to have the C:A, both on the bidding and from partner's failure to switch to C.

So I go for the trump promotion.

[mikeh]

Spoiler

Assuming that partner is not an imbecile, he lacks the ♣A.

The normal play is the 4th♠. Let's see when it wins, and when it loses.

It loses if opener has xxx AK1098x xx AK..... he ruffs with the 7 and pitches his ♦ loser.

If declarer has xxx AK8xxx then the 4th ♠ beats him in trump.

If he has xxx AK9xxx, he can make by overruffing and running the 9 at you, smothering partner's 8, but he may not do this..... altho, equally, he might since he will suspect you of Jxx(x) for your play and he can do nothing about J8x.

If he has xxx AK98xx, he can again make this by overruffing and running the 9 or leading low to the 7, and he may well do this.

In the trump suit itself, there is not a huge amount one way or the other.... I would expect a good declarer to pick off my Jxx more times than not, but the odds are pretty good that declarer either has a stiff ♦ or the K so the passive line is usually failing no matter how the trumps sit and the aggressive line (the 4th ♠) has more chances of winning and little downside.

[hatchett]

Spoiler

If Declarer has AK9xxx then playing a ♠ a spade gives him a losing option and never costs. He is still off if he started with xx ♦ and has a losing option if he has K/Kx ♦. It's the same if he started with AK98xx trump. The trump 7 in dummy does mean that the ruff and sluff loses to xxx AKT98x xx AK as mikeh points out. I guess it's a marginal 3♥ rebid. I don't consider xxx AK9(8)xxx xx AK to be 3♥ rebids.

[kenberg]

Response below.

[whereagles]

Well, my first thought is the same of most people. The trouble is seeing if it's not too dangerous. I think not, so I do it.

[kenberg]

Spoiler

If partner has the king of diamonds his spades should have been Ace then King, suit preference, not king then ace. Still ....

If delarer has the stiff king of diamonds and Axx in clubs (not so unlikely since he presumably has four minor suit cards including the ace of clubs and at least one minor king) then a diamond is still right because he cant take his two pitches now, and can't get back after he draws trump. Not terribly likely, but not farfetched.

The promo will work certainly if pard has T9, probably if he has T8, and problably not with Tx, where x<8.

Tough call. If I am confident that pard would signal in the spades if he had the king of diamonds, I'll go with the promo. If I think he is just playing AK randomly, I'll go with the diamond hoping for Kx in with pard or stiff K with declarer. The trouble with just trying the promo now and scoring pard's Kx later is that decl can ruff with the 7 and if pard's hearts are both lower, pitch a diamond. Probably they are not both lower, but probably the are not the T9 either.

[mikeh]

Ken: your possible declarer hand would not be a 3♥ rebid for anyone I know. So I wouldn't worry about it, and would never cater to it.

[kenberg]

It is light, I agree.

[Free]

Partner showed already 7HCP, we have 5, and declarer jumped. So I guess all partner can have is ♣J. I'll go for the trump promotion by leading another ♠. Chances are small, since he needs ♥T9, not only the ten... But declarer may still make a mistake, you never know.

[adhoc3]

Spoiler

Play the fourth spade, hoping pard has H10. Pard could hardly have C A ... he would have played it before 3rd S if he has.

[Stephen Tu]

OK, guess can start unhiding now.

I also thought along with everyone else that 4th spade is best, and this is indeed right as partner has HT9, declarer DKx + CAJ. What I found interesting was that out of the 16 Wests who had opportunity to do this (other tables different contract, different lead, or East for whatever strange reasoning didn't play all 3 spades), only 1 actually did it. (unfortunately, my partner was one of the other 15). Meanwhile, this is 1st choice for most of you.

Is this one of those hands where it's obvious if someone leads you to the decision point and suggests a good play is available, but if you are at the table you just don't think about it & overlook it? I hope that if I was on other side that I would have found it easily. Easy as a board problem but hard for actual field?

Also there are questions of
- if you were declarer with AK9xxx or AK98xx, if the 4th spade is played & RHO plays T/J, is it right to go for the pin/hook to take care of West's (J/T)xx?
- if declarer will go for this hook, defender should play 4th spade with Hxx, Hxxx and create phantom trick out of partner's hoped for HJTx, HJT?

It seems only costs for defender if declarer Dxx & partner doesn't have HT/9/8. (Assuming partner is not bad enough to not cash CA before 3rd spade).

[cherdano]

Did all these 16 tables have the same auction? With xxx AK8432 Kx AJ, I would guess the normal rebid is 2♥. If North then invites and South accepts, the fourth spade is a LOT less attractive.

On the given auction, I would claim the 4th spade is a normal play for adv+ or better. In a random BBO tournament field, I wouldn't be surprised if only one out of ten found it.

I find it hard to believe that it can only be found in a problem situation. (When I saw the hand, I thought ♠2 was automatic, THEN started to think whether it could be wrong.)

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