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27 high, two balanced hands, 8 top tricks surely 3NT is cold?

#1 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2006-September-06, 04:47

Scoring: Total Points

2NT P 3NT all pass


Yet another hand from our HP final last week. With so many play problems it's probably not so surprising the match took nearly 10 hours.

Table 1 (our team declaring)
2 of spades lead (4th highest) which runs to your Queen.
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#2 User is offline   Codo 

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Posted 2006-September-06, 05:52

In a long match, I would play it the chicken way and go for 9 tricks first. So I play diamonds from the top to secure my ninth trick. This clealy reduces my chances to win 11 tricks, but I would pay the price. After all, ten tricks are still possible and maygive me a good result.
Kind Regards

Roland


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#3 User is offline   Blofeld 

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  Posted 2006-September-06, 06:17

How does that secure 9 tricks?

2♠ + 2♥ + 3♦ + 1♣ = 8.
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#4 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2006-September-06, 06:45

Codo, on Sep 6 2006, 12:52 PM, said:

In a long match, I would play it the chicken way and go for 9 tricks first.

Good plan, given that this is
i) a 60-board match and
ii) total points (aggregate) scoring where overtricks are essentially irrelevant
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#5 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2006-September-06, 07:07

Good or ill, I win the spade, club to Ace, diamond Jack run around (pitching the 10). I assume it loses to cause a problem. Best defense, though, this holds, then the 9 loses to the King at round two, snipping communications.

Spade comes back, causing great distress. I run off the diamonds, watching cards. In the end, I try the club finesse.

If I could enable losing the diamond with an entry, I'd run diamonds on the spade return and end in dummy. Depending upon pitches, I might hook the heart or cross to the heart King to lead a club toward the Queen. I doubt that I get that pleasure.
"Gibberish in, gibberish out. A trial judge, three sets of lawyers, and now three appellate judges cannot agree on what this law means. And we ask police officers, prosecutors, defense lawyers, and citizens to enforce or abide by it? The legislature continues to write unreadable statutes. Gibberish should not be enforced as law."

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#6 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2006-September-06, 07:22

Club to the ace and diamond finesse seems fine. If it fails, then cash 1 diamond, leaving an entry in dummy, to watch discard and from there decide whether to try for the 9th trick in hearts or clubs.
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#7 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2006-September-06, 07:26

I'm notoriously bad at play problems, however here's what I'd try...
(Basically, I'm trusting that the Spade lead is really 4th best in which case they split 4-4)

Win the Queen of Spades and then duck a club to East
Win the Spade return, then hook the Queen of Clubs...

if this wins, then I have 9 tricks. Even if Diamond hook is off, I have

2 Spades
2 Hearts
3 Diamonds
2 Clubs

If this loses, then I have the Diamond finesse to fall back on plus some other possibilities if clubs break 3-3...
Alderaan delenda est
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#8 User is offline   paulg 

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Posted 2006-September-06, 07:39

whereagles, on Sep 6 2006, 02:22 PM, said:

Club to the ace and diamond finesse seems fine. If it fails, then cash 1 diamond, leaving an entry in dummy, to watch discard and from there decide whether to try for the 9th trick in hearts or clubs.

What do you do when the diamond finesse wins on the first round? You either commit to picking up diamonds when they are 4-1 and lose your heart option, or play for diamonds 3-2 and maintain an entry to dummy.

I think Richard's line is mildly superior since both will end up requiring the clubs or diamonds to behave.

Paul
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I don't work for BBO and any advice is based on my BBO experience over the decades
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#9 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2006-September-06, 07:43

hum.. I also thought of ducking a club, but I think I found something wrong with it.. though I can't remember now what it was, so maybe I was just being dumb.. lol.
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#10 User is offline   Codo 

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Posted 2006-September-06, 08:15

that´s why I am always one down: 2+2+3+1 is not 9?
Okay, need a better line then:
I doubt, that I had found Richards line, but I am sure, that I won´t find a better now.
Kind Regards

Roland


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#11 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2006-September-06, 08:50

I've been told I have the club suit wrong.
It is

AQ72

opposite

98x
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#12 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2006-September-06, 11:33

That slight change is VERY substantial...

Now, "ducking" a club seems vastly superior.
"Gibberish in, gibberish out. A trial judge, three sets of lawyers, and now three appellate judges cannot agree on what this law means. And we ask police officers, prosecutors, defense lawyers, and citizens to enforce or abide by it? The legislature continues to write unreadable statutes. Gibberish should not be enforced as law."

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#13 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2006-September-11, 01:21

I don't know what the right line is, but I can tell you the winning line...

I'm still not convinced by the ducking-a-club line as I struggle to see how on what layout it gains, other than J10x club onside, against losing if they have carelessly not led a 4th highest spade.

The only winning finesse is the heart one. LHO has

KJ9x
108x
Kxx
Jxx

and will find it easy to duck the first round of diamonds (harder holding Kx as it's always possible you have 6 of them....) so the winning line is to clear diamonds from hand.

My team-mate took the club finesse at trick 2 and went off.
At the other table, I led a heart at trick 1 and declarer went 2 off.
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