kgr, on Sep 2 2006, 06:07 AM, said:
temp3600, on Sep 1 2006, 06:35 PM, said:
When the last trump is lead from dummy, East knows declarer's exact shape. He knows South only has one entry to dummy - not enough to execute any kind of coup around the trump suit - so with an initial trump holding of QJ75 he should have split his honors, securing two trump tricks.
So I'd go up with the king, playing for 3-2 trumps.
yes, you are right.
East started with QJ75, but didn't play an honour here.
I wondered if I should have made this, but it seems like there is no normal play to make 4H.
It seemed certain this was the case, since no one asks a question where the answer is "Assume the suit splits 3-2". Running the 8 could well lead you to lament "I made the safety play for the 4-1 split but unfortunately they split 3-2 and I went down"
Given that diamonds are either 4-3 or 5-2 (as you know at the time) and hearts are either 3-2 or 4-1, as you also know at the time, the 5-2 diamond split is (by my calculations) significantly more likely than the 4-1 heart split.
The clues from the play are scanty. The D shift at T2 has some risk if defender holds three diamonds of allowing declarer to toss a spade if his spade holding in hand is lighter and his diamond holding stronger, but E may feel it necessary to start the diamonds from his side. Still, with three diamonds I would expect a spade continuation. Weak evidence, but all in all it seems that losing the 8 and then seeing another diamond from W, ruffed by E, is the greater danger.
So yep, I go up. In fact, anticipating this choice, I would have continued with the king of hearts at T4. If you are not going to run the 8 there seems little point in waiting.
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1H-2H-4H