[hatchett]

Scoring: IMP

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P P 2♠ X
3♠ P P X
P 4♣ P 4♥
all P


Spade lead to J, Q and A. You ruff a spade low. You view to continue with a ♣ to the Q that holds, and ruff another ♠ low. Play on.

[FrancesHinden]

You haven't told us the count in spades, nor if LHO started with Kxx

I still have to lose two trump tricks.
I have to lose a club trick.
So I have to avoid losing a diamond trick.

There are two ways to avoid losing a diamond trick
i) Take a diamond finesse now
ii) Take the ace of hearts, ace of clubs and exit in hearts. This playing for LHO to have exactly 3 spades, plus either the KQ of hearts or K10/Q10 doubleton or Kx and not unblock. Also goes off if LHO is 2-1 in hearts and clubs but that is unlikely.

The second line looks better IF spades are 6-3. Surely I got some sort of signal on 3 rounds of the suit?

[hatchett]

♠ seem to be 3-6

[FrancesHinden]

If spades are 3-6 the endplay works when LHO has, in hearts,

KQx (x2)
KQ
KQ10
K10
Q10

(6/20 of the 3-2 breaks)

Kx and doesn't unblock (another 2 cases - and it could easily be wrong to unblock)

PLUS any time LHO has Jxx in clubs and the diamond finesse is right.

Or to put it another way, it loses compared to taking the diamond finesse only when RHO can win the second trump, has a club to cash and then plays a diamond through.

Also, the endplay is more fun.

There's an alternative possible endplay line, however, which is to run the jack of hearts if it isn't covered. LHO can win and exit in a rounded suit; we win, cash the ace of clubs if necessary and exit in hearts. This gains against RHO's Qx or Kx in trumps and no cover, but loses to many of the doubletons on our left. Personally, I think RHO will cover the heart with Hx so I wouldn't take this line.

[mikeh]

I agree with Frances' comments: I also assume that I know that LHO did not start with Kxx♠...in which case, the odds are overwhelming that the ♦ finesse won't work: RHO has KQ of ♠, the ♣K already, and may hold a trump honour and/or the ♣and/or ♦J's, so he is VERY unlikely to hold the ♦ K.

I return to my hand with a trump, cash the ♣A, to prevent LHO getting out in that suit....I can throw him back in if he has Jxx, but if he has Jx or xx, he can exit in the suit and I am screwed...therefore I use a form of the dentist's coup to extract that exit card.

Note that a cagey west can defeat me with KQx by unblocking the K or Q under my Ace. This is in addition to the unblocks noted by Frances... and the play will have progressed to the point that the looming endplay will be apparent to many good defenders.

So maybe the best psychological line is to win the ♠A, cash the ♥A at trick 2, when the picture may not be as clear to west.. then ruff a ♠, hook the ♣, ruff the ♠, return to hand with the ♣ and exit a trump.... it will be far more difficult for west to defend accurately on this line...of course, if the ♣ hook loses, you may well go down another trick.... and the original line may still prevail even with the ♣ hook losing if the ♣J is doubleton.