[cherdano]

Winstonm, on Sep 27 2006, 04:52 AM, said:

The thing that originally captured my attention was the collapse of WTC 7 - I didn't even know a third building had gone down. That led to some reading that at least created a reasonable doubt in my mind - but as Dr. Todd said, not having the ability to quantify the science makes conjecture over scientific aspects out of my realm. Indeed, probably out of almost everyone's grasp.

The thing that most bothers someone like me is the amount of coincidences occurring. There is something for the mathematicians: what are the odds inherent in coincidence?

John Ashcroft starts flying in chartered planes. OK, maybe a reason.
Surge in put options of AA and Unitied prior to the attack. Ok. Maybe a valid reason. Coincidence x 2?
War games were under way on 9-11? O.K., maybe valid.
Coincidence cubed?
Fema showed up in NYC the day before the attacks. O.K. Could be valid.
Coincidence to the 4th power?

This goes on and on over 200 times - supposedly - sources suspect in some, I'm sure. Still, if only 100 or even 50 of these coincidences are accurate, shouldn't it be possible to determine at least in mathematical theory the odds of all occuring randomly? And if so, could the likelihood that this was a planned event based on the same numbers be expressed?

Thats a typical mistake in probability thinking. It's like saying, whats the likelyhood of getting exactly QT532 A54 K43 Q4?? It's sooo unlikely, the deal must be rigged!

What I am saying is that there are huge number of such incidents that could have happened and would make the conspiracy theorists' suspicious. How about Bush having a meeting with Blair. The CIA performing a computer upgrade.

There are thousands such possible incidents, and so it's pretty likely that a couple of them will occur.

Arend

[Winstonm]

Quote

What would have happened if the buildings hadn't fallen down? I.e. The top floors are destroyed and fall over the edge (or onto the floors below without causing the rest to fall).

Precisely the same thing! the US could stilll have used it as a pretext for war

This would surely have been enough to go after bin Laden in Afghanistan but I'm not so sure it would have been enough to justify Iraq (maybe, maybe not).

I am in favor of Dr. Jones's idea of an non-political international panel of scientists, etc., to be able to revue all the evidence, including testing whatever remains of the original steel as well as the NIST computer collapse model. I would sincerely hope they would come back with an account that fits the NIST claims.

Regardless of outcome, we will continue to build tall buildings and have a need to protect the ones already in place; the engineering community needs a comprehensive model that explains the collapse to improve designs and to understand the dynamics of the collapse. The NIST collapse model and any other relevant evidence needs to be released for scientific and engineering scrutiny to help in understanding the failed engineering the NIST report indicates.

[Winstonm]

Quote

There are thousands such possible incidents, and so it's pretty likely that a couple of them will occur.

Arend

Agreed. I was only wondering if there is any mathematical theory of coincidence and if it could be applied in this case - perhaps not relevant. To my lame mind, it seems somewhat like a coin flip, each individual flip being 50/50 but the combined chances of 200 such flips all being heads would be highly improbable - not impossible.

[Al_U_Card]

cherdano, on Sep 28 2006, 02:51 AM, said:

[Thats a typical mistake in probability thinking. It's like saying, whats the likelyhood of getting exactly QT532 A54 K43 Q4?? It's sooo unlikely, the deal must be rigged!

And the supposition of correlation with causality. Just stop associating similar events that occured at the same time with being related. It's that easy. The facts will eventually come out.

[Winstonm]

Results of Dr. Steven Jones's and others' 2006 tests of WTC residues bring more puzzlement. A paper, updated 22 September 2006, describes, starting on page 29, the results of analysis of WTC collapse residues: http://worldtradecentertruth.com/volume/20...even%20jones%22

A curious answer from the NIST FAQ sheet:

Q: Why wasn't the molten metal that was found tested?
A: The condition of the steel in the wreckage of the WTC towers (i.e., whether it was in a molten state or not) was irrelevant to the investigation of the collapse since it does not provide any conclusive information on the condition of the steel when the WTC towers were standing.

Another:

Q: Why didn't NIST consider a controlled demolition hypothesis?
A: Some 200 technical experts—including about 85 career NIST experts and 125 leading experts from the private sector and academia—reviewed tens of thousands of documents, interviewed more than 1,000 people, reviewed 7,000 segments of video footage and 7,000 photographs, analyzed 236 pieces of steel from the wreckage, performed laboratory tests and sophisticated computer simulations of the sequence of events that occurred from the moment the aircraft struck the towers until they began to collapse. (emphasis added).

Wouldn't the actual physics of the collapse within the known times be somewhat important to validate the hypothesis?

Note this also: "analyzed 236 pieces of steel from the wreckage, performed laboratory tests"

But later in another answer: Q: Was the steel tested for explosives or thermite residues? A: NIST did not test for the residue of these compounds in the steel.

But this is interesting about the long overdue report on WTC 7 collapse:
"NIST also is considering whether hypothetical blast events could have played a role in initiating the collapse. While NIST has found no evidence of a blast or controlled demolition event, NIST would like to determine the magnitude of hypothetical blast scenarios that could have led to the structural failure of one or more critical elements."

I actually have a lot of sympathy for the NIST's lack of initially investigating a controlled demolition theory - these are basically government employees who
were assigned the task of explaining the event, and even if the idea had been presented initially as part of a full investigation, all it probably would have required is one person in charge to dismiss it as too unlikely upon which to waste time and effort. Or perhaps they were ordered not to look into it in order to reduce the amount of "conspiracy theories" as President Bush so strangely included in his speech shortly after the attacks.

Interesting that explosives are now part of WTC 7 NIST investigation. I also find it quite interesting that although Dr. Jones's research does not conclusively prove demolition, there is also nothing to rule out that scenario - in fact, his latest research into the residue more strongly suggests thermite and its derivatives as having been used.

[Winstonm]

It is interesting to see a list of individuals, along with the statements they made, that doubt the validity of the 9-11 commission's findings. The following website is interesting in that all it does is list these people, show their statements, and gives links to support the statements.

http://www.patriotsquestion911.com/

It is an eye-opener to see just who is in the camp for a re-investigation.

[Winstonm]

With the creation of the Department of Homeland Security, the Patriot Act, the Detainee Bill, and the domestic wiretapping practice, these quotes have more immediate interest:

"This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when he first appears he is a protector." - Plato

"If Tyranny and Oppression come to this land, it will be in the guise of fighting a foreign enemy." - U.S. President James Madison

"Terrorism is the best political weapon for nothing drives people harder than a fear of sudden death". - Adolph Hitler

"Why of course the people don't want war ... But after all it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy, and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship ... Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country." - Hermann Goering, Nazi leader.

"The easiest way to gain control of a population is to carry out acts of terror. [The public] will clamor for such laws if their personal security is threatened". - Josef Stalin

[hrothgar]

Tonight South Park is explaining the "Truth behind the 9/11 Attacks". Last weeks episode lampooning World of Warcraft was the funniest thing that i've seen this year. I have high hopes for this evening.

[fifee]

Now we know the truth. South Park rules!

[the saint]

fifee, on Oct 12 2006, 07:10 AM, said:

Now we know the truth. South Park rules!

Completely - the sharpest satire on TV. Cartman is my hero.

[DrTodd13]

The world of warcraft episode was truly hilarious. I haven't seen the 9/11 south park episode but the south park guys are libertarians which are probably more likely to believe in a conspiracy so we'll see what they have to say about the issue.

[hrothgar]

DrTodd13, on Oct 12 2006, 08:23 PM, said:

The world of warcraft episode was truly hilarious.  I haven't seen the 9/11 south park episode but the south park guys are libertarians which are probably more likely to believe in a conspiracy so we'll see what they have to say about the issue.

For anyone who missed the episode, here's the South Park view

The 9/11 Conspiracy is a government conspiracy.

9/11 was perpetrated by a bunch of muslim terrorists. The government created a bunch of "government conspiracy" web sites to convince people that 9/11 was a government conspiracy. The government's goal is to convinced people that the government is all knowing and all powerful so they can be manipulated more easily.