[Walddk]

Scoring: IMP

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You play 12-14 NT and are in the normal 4♠ as South in a team game after this auction:

1N - 2♣
2♠ - 4♠
P

West leads ♥A (East discouraging), cashes ♥K and switches to ♣9. Now there is a well known safety play in spades; a 100% line if spades break no worse than 4-1. Low spade to the ace and low towards dummy.

If West follows small, you insert the 9 to guard against Q10xx. If West shows out, you rise with the king and lead towards Jx. That should be easy enough for the expert player.

Now I will give you a much more challenging defence. At trick 3, West continues with another heart which you ruff in dummy. Things are different now and indeed much more complex.

How do you play the trump suit when all you know at this point is that both opponents have at least 3 hearts?

Roland

[whereagles]

how about AK and low to the jack?

[Walddk]

whereagles, on Jul 25 2006, 03:41 PM, said:

how about AK and low to the jack?

Possible, but I don't think it's best. I have a suggestion obviously (I can't be sure that it's the best line either), but I'll let others have a go first. Remember that you are down to three trumps in dummy now.

It's the 4-1 trump breaks we are concerned about of course.

Roland

[whereagles]

hum.. you're right. By playing like that, if trumps are 4-1 you'll probably go down (4-1 on left, you're cooked; on right, RHO takes queen in 3rd round and if he has a heart, he'll force your ♠J.)

I guess you must retain a low trump on dummy to cope for heart forces, so low to the 9 or a plain duck is probably better. Now you can let it ride to dummy if RHO takes the spade and plays a heart.

[barmar]

How about playing 3 rounds of ♣, then start playing ♦. If all the ♣ survive, he'll be end-played when he ruffs the ♦. If a ♣ is ruffed, it's likely that it was the opponent with the long trump.

[david_c]

The "matchpoints" line looks good to me - cash the king then finesse the jack. Only loses when LHO has QTxx (or trumps are 5-0). But surely that's too boring to be the answer

[awm]

Well, one can try spade to the nine. If this loses to the ten, then the plan would be the play the spade king next. In principle this loses only if RHO started with singleton spade ten...

But there are issues if the opponents get in and play another round of hearts. In fact, suppose I do anything that involves losing a spade on the first round. If the opponents play another heart I'm tapped down and can only make if spades were initially 3-2 (or some really lucky trump coup materializes). So I'll stick with the "matchpoint line" which works against any 3-2 break or Qxxx/QTxx onside.

[Walddk]

Here is my analysis. I can't be sure that this is best (I may have to ask Bart Bramley or Michael Rosenberg), but I have a strong feeling that it is:

If the trumps are 3-2 or there is a singleton queen, you have little to worry about, so you can concentrate on 4-1 breaks.

The standard safety play here is ace and small to the 9, but you have lost a trump in dummy already and the defence could force you with another heart. This line wins when West has ♠Q10xx and only three hearts - he can’t force you when he wins his trump trick – and ♠Qxxx. You finesse the 9 on the second round. Cash the king and play winners keeping trump control.

Small to the king intending to finesse the jack on the way back is better: it gains when West has any singleton trump or ♠Qxxx (the ♠9 can be used to force out the queen while a trump remains in dummy for another heart).

However, small to the 9 on the first round is best. That gains when West has ♠Q10xx with any number of hearts – again the small trump in dummy protects you from the force if West splits his spade honours - the singleton 10 and most of the time when West has a small singleton.

East wins the 10 and plays a heart. You discard a diamond and ruff in dummy to cash the king of trumps. You now need a trump coup, but if East has to follow to two diamonds and one club, there is nothing he can do. Cash a club and play diamonds. If he ruffs, you overruff and draw trumps. If he doesn’t ruff, you throw clubs and sit over his ♠Q8 with ♠AJ as you lead a club from dummy.

Roland

[Winstonm]

This one is giving me a headache. I try not to take more time than I would at the table to come up with my solution. It looks as though a low spade to the 9 would work, but that is illusion when the hearts are 44, unless the 9 holds. If RHO wins, he can force with another heart and establish a trump trick.

I can't come up with a better solution, so I will cross in clubs and lead low spade to the 9. If hearts are 4/4 and RHO has 4 spades and I am forced again, I will pitch a diamond and play for RHO to be 4423.

[david_c]

Walddk, on Jul 26 2006, 01:34 AM, said:

However, small to the 9 on the first round is best. That gains when West has ♠Q10xx with any number of hearts – again the small trump in dummy protects you from the force if West splits his spade honours - the singleton 10 and most of the time when West has a small singleton.

East wins the 10 and plays a heart. You discard a diamond and ruff in dummy to cash the king of trumps. You now need a trump coup, but if East has to follow to two diamonds and one club, there is nothing he can do. Cash a club and play diamonds. If he ruffs, you overruff and draw trumps. If he doesn’t ruff, you throw clubs and sit over his ♠Q8 with ♠AJ as you lead a club from dummy.

OK, yes that seems like a good plan. But there seems to be a slight danger of going off when trumps are 3-2. When RHO wins the ♠T and plays a heart through, LHO may be able to ruff in front of dummy with the seven or eight, forcing your king. Now you may have to guess whether the position is Qxx - Tx or xx - QTx.

[Walddk]

Bart Bramley, one of the best analysts in the game, had a look at it, and he sent me a novel I will save you from. Probalities, percentages, etc. He went through all kinds of combinations, also when hearts are 3-5 when we may get into trouble if trumps break 3-2 or 2-3.

His conclusion is that low to the 9 spot is substantially superior to any other line: roughly 10%. His first thought was that ♠K followed by a low to the jack was best, but at first he forgot to take the possible trump coup into consideration.

"However, you have convinced me that your play (low to the 9) is better. I had not recognized that the coup prospects were so good. Your play loses outright to RHO's singleton 10 (1 case) and wins outright against RHO's other singletons (4 cases) and his Qxxx or 10xxx (2 more cases).

That leaves 3 cases of Q10xx, where the coup chances are excellent. If we estimate the success of the coup at only 67% (which seems VERY conservative), you pick up 2 out of 3 such cases, for an overall success rate of at least 80% (8 out of 10 4-1 splits) compared to only 70% for king and low to the jack".

The letter is much longer than that. Thanks to Bart for his effort! He is surely the man to ask if you need a thorough and accurate analysis some day.

Roland

[pclayton]

Walddk, on Jul 26 2006, 05:10 PM, said:

Bart Bramley, one of the best analysts in the game, had a look at it, and he sent me a novel I will save you from. Probalities, percentages, etc. He went through all kinds of combinations, also when hearts are 3-5 when we may get into trouble if trumps break 3-2 or 2-3.

His conclusion is that low to the 9 spot is substantially superior to any other line: roughly 10%. His first thought was that ♠K followed by a low to the jack was best, but at first he forgot to take the possible trump coup into consideration.

"However, you have convinced me that your play (low to the 9) is better. I had not recognized that the coup prospects were so good. Your play loses outright to RHO's singleton 10 (1 case) and wins outright against RHO's other singletons (4 cases) and his Qxxx or 10xxx (2 more cases).

That leaves 3 cases of Q10xx, where the coup chances are excellent. If we estimate the success of the coup at only 67% (which seems VERY conservative), you pick up 2 out of 3 such cases, for an overall success rate of at least 80% (8 out of 10 4-1 splits) compared to only 70% for king and low to the jack".

The letter is much longer than that. Thanks to Bart for his effort! He is surely the man to ask if you need a thorough and accurate analysis some day.

Roland

Roland, I will send you a case of Coke, postage paid if you get Bart to participate in the forums

[whereagles]

I find this hand very instructive in the sense that no matter how many safety plays you know by heart, in real life there's often a twist that requires you to invent new safety plays at table