[mike777]

Here is a hypothetical hand posed by Versace.

Scoring: IMP

1NT=P=P=2S
P=P=?

---

1NT=15-17

Your bid and why?

[whereagles]

At imps you can pass. At matchpoints I would have bid a keri 2♣ the round before Not playing keri, I might try double or 3♦.

[Gerben42]

Might Dbl for TO on a brave day, but not today. Pass.

[Free]

slow values, no distribution: pass!

[Apollo81]

mike777, on Jul 11 2006, 11:43 PM, said:

Here is a hypothetical hand posed by Versace.

Scoring: IMP

1NT=P=P=2S
P=P=?

---

1NT=15-17

Your bid and why?

If I was 2-4-5-2 then double for takeout seems reasonable since I will like it if pard passes and am prepared to handle any other rebid/shape from pard. Here, I do not want to put pard in a position if he holds 4-4 in the blacks with bad spades, so I will pass, expecting a small plus.

[Double !]

Pass

What expert insight am I missing on this hand? Enlighten me, please.
I'm not looking for the "right answer" but, instead, for the reasoning process behind the decision making.

DHL

[neilkaz]

Free, on Jul 12 2006, 06:01 AM, said:

slow values, no distribution: pass!

I agree with passing.

[mike777]

Double !, on Jul 12 2006, 01:31 PM, said:

Pass

What expert insight am I missing on this hand?  Enlighten me, please.
I'm not looking for the "right answer" but, instead, for the reasoning process behind the decision making.

DHL

I will post numerous top class responses after giving everyone a chance to respond but you may surmise some WC players choose a response other than pass and with reasons.

[bid_em_up]

Apollo81, on Jul 12 2006, 08:29 AM, said:

If I was 2-4-5-2 then double for takeout seems reasonable since I will like it if pard passes and am prepared to handle any other rebid/shape from pard.  Here, I do not want to put pard in a position if he holds 4-4 in the blacks with bad spades, so I will pass, expecting a small plus.

I have no expectation of a small plus on this hand. There is absolutely no reason to believe we are beating 2♠. If I pass, I actually expect a 5-6 imp minus. (Minus 110/140 at this table, minus 90/120 at the other table).

Given that I do not believe it to be profitable to let the opponents rest comfortably in 2♠, I must take some action. Our side holds at least 1/2 the values. 2N, 3♦, and X if cooperative/takeout (not penalty oriented) are all logical alternatives to pass.

If the X is clearly not penalty in my methods, I prefer this to tell partner I am max pass and he can choose to pull or defend. If he wants to pull, he can bid 2N (it cannot be to play....if it was, he would have chosen to defend 2♠ x'd instead) with no 5 card suit of his own, allowing me to bid 3♦. A 3♣/3♥ bid from pard should be on a 5 card suit, and I am happy here.

If my methods do not allow the above, I will risk a 3♦ bid on the knowledge that partner is balanced and our side holds at least half the hcp. Our side is not vulnerable and I believe the opponents will have a difficult time doubling 3♦ for penalty (yes, it can occur, its just unlikely). I will have no problem selling out to 3♠ should they choose to bid it.

Someone commented about the "slow values" in the hand. I think this is an illusion. Allow for LHO to hold some reasonable spade holding, ie KJ10xxx for his bid. Now the maximum hcp partner can hold in spades is 4 hcp out of his 15-17. If he holds nothing in spades, then all of his 15-17 will be working well with our hand. The most he can hold in diamonds is 7 (and then he will hold the AK, most days he will only hold one of these two cards). Any values LHO holds in clubs or hearts will be favorably placed. At worst, I would expect 3♦ to go down no more than one (normally).

Am I happy about it? No. Can it backfire? Of course. Would I do it again? Everyday.

[mike777]

Australian Bridge June-July 2006.

Call.....Votes
Pass.......17
2nt(nat)...2
Dbl..........1
3D...........3
2nt(leb)....1


Robson: 2nt, natural, middle of the road action..pass is wet...double feels wrong.....3d with flat hand feels wrong, what is left?

Stewart: 2nt, natural, do not expect to beat 2s

Steve and Barbara Shepard: 2nt, Lebensohl....will correct to 3D.

Burgess: 3D, a bit pushy.

Kantar: 3D. I must be missing something.

Klinger, Burgess: Pass

Larry Cohen: Pass,....who says they have a spade fit and we have more than a 5-2D fit.

Lawrence: Pass This hand is weak, the shape is lousy.

Sartaj Hans: Pass. No Aces, no kings, no hand, no suit, no hearts, no purity=no bid.

[zimzam]

pass!

I have a shitty hand. we can have a nice chance to beat 2S and my pd can have few diamonds..

all bids but pass is far to risky

[akhare]

Pass -- someone said that good MP bridge is seldom good bridge, but bidding anything else w/ this hand is pure crap shoot...

[HeartA]

pass, wtp?

[mikeh]

I had thought that pass was clear, for a number of reasons. The more I have thought about the hand, the more I think that maybe bidding 3♦ is the percentage long-term action.

I would never double, no matter what it meant. I don't have a penalty hand and I don't want partner bidding a smart 2N followed by an even smarter, but losing, 3♥ over my 3♦... since double followed by 3♦ should deliver a 4th ♥ in my hand.

Given that lho bid at unfavourable, I doubt that we will beat 2♠ very often.

I doubt that we will make 3♦ very often either, but it is 20-1 or better that they won't double.

When 2♠ makes, I win imps for -1, and break-even at down 2... neither worth getting excited over.

When 2♠ fails, and 3♦ makes, I break even, and I lose 4 imps or so when 2♠ fails and 3♦ does as well: I put that as a low-probability combo.

What has finally tipped the scales in favour of bidding is the possibility that both make. Now I am looking at as much as a 6 imp swing: more than half the value of a nv game swing.. these 5-6 imp hands have far more importance in a long match than most assume.


I think that the odds of a double-make are high enough to warrant 3♦... and, thanks, Mike, for posting this hand.. it looked so mundane that I did not originally post. I look forward to reading Versace's comments