Help
However, the bidding in front of you gets very accelerated. 2♠ (weak) on your left, pass by partner, 5♣ on your right.
Your call?
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There are three choices: 5♥, double and pass. I don't like 5♥. Even if we catch a fit, we are going to have problems with the spade suit, as RHO will be able to overruff partner. The K♣ is obviously worthless too. The K♦ looks more like a defensive card than an offensive card. If I was in heat 3, I'd probably pass, but I think double is the percentage action. Should double be takeout showing primary diamonds and secondary hearts? I really don't think so, and if pard pulls, I expect very skewed distribution.
LHO now surprises you with a 5♥ (!!!) call. This actually happened at the table. I audibly exhaled and was very happy I didn't trot out 5♥!. RHO pulls to 6♣ and you find an easy double and the table rests.
Now you have to find a lead from (repeated): ♠A752, ♥AJ8652, ♦K2, ♣K.
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Lets do a little reconstruction: LHO is 6=4=3=0 or less likely 6=5=2=0. 6=4=2=1 is possible too, but not likely, so is 6=5=1=1. RHO has a slew of clubs, at least 8 and no real fit for either of LHO's suits, but with 8 or 9 clubs he really wouldn't care if he did anyway.
There are three main candidates, the A♠, the A♥ and the K♦. I don't like the A♠, but there is some sense to it. If LHO is 6=5 in the majors, there's a slightly higher chance the A♠ will live while the A♥ won't. Still, it always feels wrong to lead dummy's primary suit, unless we think we can get pard a ruff, which is real doubtful here.
The K♦ seems wrong too. If pard has the ♦A, we are creaming this hand, so thats not much of a worry, as the difference will be 800 to 1100 or so. However, the K♦ could be a disaster, as declarer could have AQx or even AQJ and we have just led the setting trick.
The A♥ is left. I think there is a moderate chance pard can ruff a heart, and I think there's a fair chance that it lives anyway. So we try the A♥.
Scoring: IMP
1. A♥, 7, 3 (udca), 2♣ (drat!)
2. A♣, K, ♥9, 5
3. Q♣, ♥2, ♥T, 3
4. J♣, ♥8, ♠3, 10
5. ♠4, ?
Now what? (Hopefully you were thinking about this position as you pitched on the clubs.
Scoring: IMP
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RHO appears to be 2=0=3=8 leaving pard with 1=2=6=4 or (more likely) 1=0=3=9 leaving pard with 2=2=6=3. After all, pard did give us count in clubs.
Ducking the A♠ could be disasterous. Declarer will rise with the K (out of desparation) and pitch losers on the ♥KQ.
So we rise with the A♠ and get the ♠4 from pard. It looks like we did the right thing and pard has Qx.
Now we have to lead:
Scoring: IMP
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Obviously we have to play a diamond. Declarer is a lock to be 1=0=3=9. The choices are the K or the 2 .Here are the relevant positions:
1.
Doesn't matter what we play; declarer has just walked into an endplay.
2.
We get one trick no matter how we play .
3.
One trick for the defense.
4.
If we lead the K, declarer will duck and make 2 more tricks. If we lead low, declarer will probably duck playing pard for KQ.
5.
We need to play the K to unblock the suit to take 2 tricks.
6.
We will take two tricks.
7.
We will take 3 tricks, but we need to unblock .
On balance, it appears that leading the K helps n two cases and leading low helps in 1. However, go back to pard's club spots. Wouldn't pard try to convey a stronger diamond holding by playing low-hi in clubs? Accordingly, Case 7 can be thrown out. Would pard play low-hi with QJ9xxx? He probably should. There's not much to go on, and the difference between QT9xxx and QJ9xxx is very subtle, but in the actual hand if you shift to a small diamond, you will beat the hand 2 tricks but the K♦ will lead to -1. The complete hand:
Scoring: IMP
THE END
