keylime, on Jun 19 2006, 01:09 PM, said:
Onside is RHO holding the trumps.
Here, onside would mean LHO has QTxx.
Back to the problem. You need an endplay at trick 11 on EAST, so you have to come to the ending suggesting by Frances. That is the only chance.
This means, you can not afford to ruff anymore hearts in dummy (you have to have two trumps left and there are only two in dummy. It also means you must cash 10 tricks before leading to trick 11, where you have J9 of diamonds in dummy, at least two trumps in your hand (if you have three, you will under-ruff when EAST ruffs with the D8).
We could speculate on where can your ten tricks come from? One heart ruff (too late now for a second ruff), 3S (if you are exceeding fortunate), the one diamond. You need 4C and a club ruff or 5C. Your club spots are too poor for five club tricks (without EAST ruffing in early). Any ruff by east before trick 11 and he has a safe (non-trump) exit card. Since your clubs are not strong enough to win five tricks on their own, you have to play EAST for five clubs. Five club, four diamonds, and he raised hearts. This is too much, as you can't get your three spades. Could 2S do (2S, 1H ruff, 1D, 4C, 1C ruff)? No that is only 9 tricks.
No matter how you wiggle, here is the problem (as noted earlier by Frances)... there is no line you can choose to extract the second heart from EAST. East can ruff in as soon as possible, and if you over ruff and he has two trump tricks, you don't over ruff and he exits his second heart. And he must have 2H, or WEST has EIGHT HEARTS to AKT9, and bid only once, and EAST raised on "x". That simply is not possible. Thus, as long as EAST has two hearts, he is endplay proof. You can't afford to ruff one in dummy, and if you don't you the endplay is doomed because you can not extract his exit card. QED.